tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6879915515880887788.post745516998975865844..comments2008-04-01T09:36:31.995-04:00John M. Muellerhttps://profiles.google.com/112664410285566368332noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6879915515880887788.post-62827510051821049492008-04-01T09:36:00.000-04:002008-04-01T09:36:00.000-04:00As for the reason I did not include Appleby in my top 5 picks for the Shell, it is because I think the ones that I picked have a better chance of playing better than Appleby and the rest of the field. It is not to say that Appleby has a bad chance of playing well this week.<BR/><BR/>Scott is on a upward swing at the moment, especially at the Shell. Choi likes the course and Houston, as it is his adopted home town. Mickelson usually plays well the tournament before the Masters. Harrington is solid all round and should be a guarantee to make the cut (I don't like having players miss the cut; would much rather have all of my players make the cut and finish lower in the field than have a winner). And for Stricker, I think he is burning fire that he missed the cut last week in New Orleans and will have a top 10 because of that this week. So that left Appleby out. If I had 6 players to pick, he would have been the next one.<BR/><BR/>That said, Appleby could easily be a good pick for you this week. For one, in the last 3 instances of the tournament has won the tournament and placed 2nd twice. However, it also could be argued that since he has played well at the Shell in the past, it will be hard for him to keep up the good form and snag a top 10. <BR/><BR/>Then if you are looking at the CLi rankings and actual CLi figures, the CLi figures between the 3rd and 8th rankings are not very different. With Choi ranked 3rd in the CLi figures and Appleby ranked 8th with a CLi figure of 16.70, there is just 3 CLi points between them. This means the CLi figures are basically saying that Choi and Appleby have a very similar chance of playing well this week at the Shell Houston Open.<BR/><BR/>Also remember, that I am just looking at the top 15 players in the CLi rankings here. So the players listed here from the golfcli.com site are already expected to play better than the rest of the 123 players in the field.<BR/><BR/>As well, Shedloski (the Tour Insider) likes Appleby.<BR/><BR/>Hope that helps explain my thought process in my picks this week.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the compliment and reading the Tour Outsider blog. It is enjoyable to hear from readers.Johnny Momo Muellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01518330482010663614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6879915515880887788.post-87566560299046607832008-04-01T08:36:00.000-04:002008-04-01T08:36:00.000-04:00Love this site, have used it throughout my golf pool this year and I am presently in first. I was going to take Appleby this week, due to his past successes at the Houston open but am now suspect because of his middle of the road cli score. Any thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com