Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Tour Outsider: Children's Miracle Network Classic

Here is another quick post to try to publish my picks for this week's tournament before the first ball is hit.

For the Children's Miracle Network Classic in Florida, my 5 picks are:

  • Tim Clark
  • Zach Johnson
  • Justin Leonard
  • Davis Love III
  • Ryan Palmer

Note: I still plan on going back and updating the posts over the last couple of weeks and getting caught up on the results between myself and Shedloski. I am just behind the eight ball in all of the stuff I am doing at the moment.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Tour Outsider: Ginn sur Mer Classic

...and another week has passed and I am still behind in my posts :-(

The only good thing over the past week in terms of my late posts is that I am still getting my picks posted before the tournament starts each week.

Here are my picks for this week's Ginn sur Mer Classic:

  • Matt Kuchar
  • Cameron Beckman
  • Ken Duke
  • Chris Stroud
  • Bob Tway

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Tour Outsider: Frys.com Open

I am continuing to fall behind. So am going to do a short post again for my picks for this week's tournament: Frys.com Open. Then hopefully I will be able to get back on track in the near future.

My 5 picks for this week are:

  • Mike Weir
  • Pat Perez
  • Tim Herron
  • Mark Hensby
  • Michael Allen

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Tour Outsider: Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital Open

Am in a hurry at the moment, so am going to do a short post initially for posting my picks for the this week's tournament: Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital Open. Then will come back and beef up the post later in the week.

My 5 picks for this week are:

  • Mark Wilson
  • Mike Weir
  • Rory Sabbatini
  • Will MacKenzie
  • Tim Herron

Monday, October 13, 2008

Valero Texas Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Valero Texas Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Justin Leonard 4.00 11 19 68 71 $99,000
2 S Mathew Goggin 18.00 MC MC 76 20 $0
3 S Chad Campbell 19.15 36 27 30 89 $19,828
4 S David Toms 19.80 36 27 14 32 $19,828
5 S Joe Ogilvie 27.05 30 6 5 10 $27,338

4 players made the cut, with Goggin the only player that missed the cut in my picks. It is interesting that he missed the cut as he was playing well leading up to the tournament.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $165,994 $261,588 TI
Avg Rank 37.8 38.4 TO
Made Cut 4 4 DRAW
Outcome -- -- DRAW

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won a draw.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 18 wins to the Tour Outsider, 16 wins to the Tour Insider, and 7 draws.


The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Justin Leonard 4.00 11 19 68 71 $99,000
2 S Mathew Goggin 18.00 MC MC 76 20 $0
3 S Chad Campbell 19.15 36 27 30 89 $19,828
4 S David Toms 19.80 36 27 14 32 $19,828
5 S Brian Gay 21.85 30 27 22 32 $27,338
6 S Dean Wilson 25.20 44 54 51 89 $12,760
7 S J.J. Henry 25.45 58 64 51 71 $9,855
8 S Charley Hoffman 25.45 70 64 41 32 $8,955
9 S Joe Ogilvie 27.05 30 6 5 10 $27,338
10 S Bob Tway 28.90 15 13 51 10 $74,250
11 S Heath Slocum 28.95 MC MC 93 101 $0
12 S Ben Crane 29.30 DQ DQ 76 56 $0
13 S Rory Sabbatini 32.10 8 1 5 20 $130,500
14 S Brandt Jobe 32.80 MC MC 76 71 $0
15 S Vaughn Taylor 33.10 58 36 51 71 $9,855

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Tour Outsider: Valero Texas Open

This is week the US PGA Tour heads to the big state of Texas to play the Valero Texas Open.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi
1 S Justin Leonard 4.00
2 S Mathew Goggin 18.00
3 S Chad Campbell 19.15
4 S David Toms 19.80
5 S Brian Gay 21.85
6 S Dean Wilson 25.20
7 S J.J. Henry 25.45
8 S Charley Hoffman 25.45
9 S Joe Ogilvie 27.05
10 S Bob Tway 28.90
11 S Heath Slocum 28.95
12 S Ben Crane 29.30
13 S Rory Sabbatini 32.10
14 S Brandt Jobe 32.80
15 S Vaughn Taylor 33.10

Looking at the Golf CLi rankings, there is a huge gap in the CLi figure between the 1st and 2nd players. I have only seen that big of a gap when Tiger Woods is playing in a tournament. So this is unusual. It also tell me that one would be foolish in this tournament to bet against Justin Leonard (the player sitting atop the CLi rankings this week). So I won't be foolish. I will pick Leonard as my first pick this week.

As for the other 4 picks, that is a little more difficult. The CLis jump to close to 20 after Leonard. That tells me that the CLi doesn't think there is any real pattern to be found in the historical results. So I will pick manually from the remaining 14 players to see if my knowledge is better than the CLi's knowledge this week.

I will pick Goggin, Campbell (a Texan, that likes playing in his home state), David Toms, and then Joe Ogilvie (who lives just down the round from San Antonio, in Austin). Let's hope having 3 home-staters on the team will bode well this week.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Valero Texas Open are:

Rank Player CLi
1 S Justin Leonard 4.00
2 S Mathew Goggin 18.00
3 S Chad Campbell 19.15
4 S David Toms 19.80
5 S Joe Ogilvie 27.05

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Leonard and Campbell. It looks like Shedloski is going with a Texas flavor as well, along with Leonard and Campbell having connections to Texas, so does Sabbatini (lives in the Dallas-Forth Worth area) and Beem (lives in near by Austin).

Monday, October 6, 2008

Turning Stone Resort Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Turning Stone Resort Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Mathew Goggin 11.15 3 12 11 14 $244,714
2 S Steve Flesch 20.35 60 65 58 59 $12,840
3 S Steve Allan 24.10 3 12 12 2 $244,714
4 S Carl Pettersson 26.20 54 61 44 43 $13,500

There are only 4 players in the list above. My 5th pick, Dudley Hart, withdrew from the tournament before the tournament started. That will give him a missed cut and a ranking of 132nd. Ouch.

On the bright side, I did have two players that finished in the top 5: Goggin and Allan.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $515,768 $713,440 TI
Avg Rank 50.4 44.8 TI
Made Cut 4 4 DRAW
Outcome -- -- TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 18 wins to the Tour Outsider, 16 wins to the Tour Insider, and 6 draws.


The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Mathew Goggin 11.15 3 12 11 14 $244,714
2 S Bill Haas 19.35 MC MC 108 80 $0
3 S Steve Flesch 20.35 60 65 58 59 $12,840
4 S Shane Bertsch 20.70 49 30 44 80 $14,472
5 S Nicholas Thompson 20.75 MC MC 83 80 $0
6 S John Rollins 23.30 MC MC 114 59 $0
7 S Steve Allan 24.10 3 12 12 2 $244,714
8 S Brett Quigley 24.70 MC MC 83 80 $0
9 S Carl Pettersson 26.20 54 61 44 43 $13,500
10 S Tim Herron 28.95 MC MC 83 97 $0
11 S Will MacKenzie 31.75 MC MC 112 80 $0
12 S J.P. Hayes 32.00 MC MC 103 108 $0
13 S Robert Allenby 32.30 2 7 4 14 $648,000
14 S Justin Bolli 33.95 MC MC 93 43 $0
15 S Briny Baird 34.30 35 20 12 7 $27,042

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Tour Outsider: Turning Stone Resort Championship

This is week the US PGA Tour is playing it's first official Fall Classic event: Turning Stone Resort Championship.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi
1 S Mathew Goggin 11.15
2 S Dudley Hart 19.10
3 S Bill Haas 19.35
4 S Steve Flesch 20.35
5 S Shane Bertsch 20.70
6 S Nicholas Thompson 20.75
7 S John Rollins 23.30
8 S Steve Allan 24.10
9 S Brett Quigley 24.70
10 S Carl Pettersson 26.20
11 S Tim Herron 28.95
12 S Will MacKenzie 31.75
13 S J.P. Hayes 32.00
14 S Robert Allenby 32.30
15 S Justin Bolli 33.95

The Golf CLi shows now CLi figures less than 10. So that basically is telling me that the CLi calculation has a less of a chance of predicting who will play well this week. That is not good for me, as I use the CLi. In any event, that is what I have to go off of, and the CLi actually is a better predictor than most on average. Therefore, I need to trust it even in this case.

I will go with the top two players in the CLi: Googin and Hart. Then will skip over Bill Haas to pick Steve Flesch.

For my fourth pick, I will make a risky pick in Steve Allan. He has played well in this tournament in the past, albeit when the tournament was at a different course. He played well in the Viking Classic two weeks ago, placing 4th. However, he has been playing the Nationwide Tour for the most part of this year. Hopefully this week he will continue his good play in at the top tour level.

Then I will skip down to Carl Pettersson for my last week.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Turning Stone Resort Championship are:

Rank Player CLi
1 S Mathew Goggin 11.15
2 S Dudley Hart 19.10
3 S Steve Flesch 20.35
4 S Steve Allan 24.10
5 S Carl Pettersson 26.20

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Flesch and Pettersson.

Monday, September 29, 2008

TOUR Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the TOUR Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Camilo Villegas 2.70 1 4 4 12 $1,260,000
2 S Vijay Singh 3.15 22 24 23 17 $127,400
3 S Jim Furyk 3.30 6 9 12 12 $238,000
4 S Hunter Mahan 5.05 17 20 28 21 $138,600
5 S Sergio Garcia 5.45 2 1 2 6 $756,000

A good week in that I had a 1st and 2nd finish with Villegas and Garcia. However, since Shedloski and I had 4 players the same, the difference will come down to the difference between Mahan and Campbell.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $2,520,000 $2,508,800 TO
Avg Rank 9.6 10.6 TO
Made Cut 5 5 DRAW
Outcome -- -- TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider. The difference was Mahan playing one shot better than Campbell.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 18 wins to the Tour Outsider, 15 wins to the Tour Insider, and 6 draws.


The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Camilo Villegas 2.70 1 4 4 12 $1,260,000
2 S Vijay Singh 3.15 22 24 23 17 $127,400
3 S Jim Furyk 3.30 6 9 12 12 $238,000
4 S Hunter Mahan 5.05 17 20 28 21 $138,600
5 S Sergio Garcia 5.45 2 1 2 6 $756,000
6 S Tim Clark 7.40 29 30 30 30 $113,400
7 S Steve Stricker 7.75 24 21 25 21 $120,400
8 S Mike Weir 10.10 6 8 5 6 $238,000
9 S Ernie Els 11.35 6 9 8 2 $238,000
10 S Carl Pettersson 12.10 21 24 25 27 $131,600
11 S Chad Campbell 13.05 22 28 19 12 $127,400
12 S Briny Baird 13.65 27 17 19 21 $115,500
13 S Justin Leonard 13.80 10 17 12 17 $180,040
14 S Ben Curtis 14.10 5 5 7 8 $280,000
15 S Phil Mickelson 14.85 3 2 3 2 $409,500