Honda Classic

The US PGA Tour will move to the east coast to play the Honda Classic in Florida.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Honda Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Vijay Singh	5.65
2	Ben Crane	13.25
3	Jason Dufner	13.65
4	Ernie Els	15.60
5	D.A. Points	16.60
6	Rory McIlroy	18.90
7	Graeme McDowell	22.70
8	Spencer Levin	22.90
9	Robert Allenby	23.95
10	Matt Kuchar	25.95
11	Fredrik Jacobson	28.95
12	Y.E. Yang	28.95
13	Luke Donald	29.80
14	Anthony Kim	31.15
15	Tom Gillis	31.70

This week Singh has is a clear favority. His CLi figure is below 10 and is almost 8 point better than the second player, Crane.

Crane is looking good as well having played solidly the past 4 tournaments (placing 21st or better) and playing well at the Honda in the past (has not missed a cut).

Dufner has been playing well leading up to this tournament, except for his outing at the AT&T where he missed the cut. In that tournament it really was his first round that shot him the foot (he shot 78) All of his other rounds have been solid. As for the Honda, he has not missed a cut in the 4 times he has played it.

Then for my final two picks, I am going to go with Els and McIlroy. They are both playing solidly lately and enjoy this tournament. I skipped over Points as he has missed the cut in the last tournament he played in (Northern Trust Open) and in last year's Honda.

The 4 players after McIlory in the CLi rankings all look good and are hard to pass up: McDowell, Levin, Allenby, and Kuchar. Too bad I can't pick 9 players....

Below are my 5 picks for the Honda Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	Vijay Singh	5.65
2	Ben Crane	13.25
3	Jason Dufner	13.65
4	Ernie Els	15.60
5	Rory McIlroy	18.90

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Graeme McDowell
2. Vijay Singh
3. Robert Allenby
4. Luke Donald
5. Matt Kuchar

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Honda Classic

We have 1 player in common this week: Singh.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Honda Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
4	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Mayakoba Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Mayakoba Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Brian Gay | 5 | $121,175
2. J.J. Henry | 19 | $37,777
3. David Toms | 5 | $121,175
4. Jerry Kelly | 50 | $8,855
5. John Merrick | 45 | $10,834

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. J.J. Henry | 19 | $37,777
2. Spencer Levin | 2 | $399,600
3. Brian Gay | 5 | $121,175
4. Aaron Baddeley | 92 (MC) | $0
5. Cameron Beckman | 12 | $85,100

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$299,816	$643,652	TI
Avg Rank	24.8	26.0	TO
Made Cut	5	4	TO
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 6 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Ok, I finally got a win again. It was a strange win no less, since Bolton won the earnings category due to his pick of Levin.  However, I was able to have all 5 of my players make the cut and had two top 5 players in Gay and Toms which helped with my average rank category. With Merrick and Kelly falling a 70 spots in the final round, I was sweating bullets the final day. Their fall in the final round increased my rank average by 14 spots to 24.8 and made the rank average category closer than I wanted. In the end, it was a win and it helps me stop from falling further in the hole against Bolton.

Accenture Match Play Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Accenture March Play Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Phil Mickelson | 17 | $95,000
2. Nick Watney | 9 | $140,000
3. Rory McIlroy | 17 | $95,000
4. Paul Casey | 17 | $95,000
5. Hunter Mahan | 9 | $140,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Justin Rose | 17 | $95,000
2. Matt Kuchar | 3 | $600,000
3. Nick Watney | 9 | $140,000
4. Paul Casey | 17 | $95,000
5. Graeme McDowell | 9 | $140,000

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$565,000	$1,070,000	TI
Avg Rank	13.8	11.0	TI
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 6 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Mayakoba Classic

This posting is for one of tournaments being held by the US PGA Tour this week: Mayakoba Classic in Mexico. The other tournament being held this week is the Accenture Match Play Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Mayakoba Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Brian Gay	3.30
2	Fred Funk	7.05
3	J.J. Henry	13.00
4	John Cook	14.20
5	David Toms	14.50
6	Jerry Kelly	18.30
7	John Merrick	20.30
8	Boo Weekley	20.70
9	Charles Howell III	20.75
10	Tom Pernice Jr	20.90
11	Tom Lehman	22.25
12	Spencer Levin	24.50
13	Cameron Beckman	26.70
14	Charles Warren	30.35
15	Joe Ogilvie	33.05

For this tournament, since there are competing tournaments being played at the same time (Accenture Match Play Championship), there are players in the field that normally would not be playing on this circuit. So you see the likes of Funk, Cook, and Lehman in the CLi rankings. Their CLi rankings are high because they have been playing well on the Champions Tour and that breeds confidence....thus they are high in the CLi rankings this week. So they could play well this week. However, I am going to pass on the veterans to pick younger players and go with the next highest 5 players in the CLi.

Below are my 5 picks for the Mayakoba Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	Brian Gay	3.30
2	J.J. Henry	13.00
3	David Toms	14.50
4	Jerry Kelly	18.30
5	John Merrick	20.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. J.J. Henry
2. Spencer Levin
3. Brian Gay
4. Aaron Baddeley
5. Cameron Beckman

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Mayakoba Classic

We have 2 players in common this week: Henry and Gay.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Mayakoba Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Accenture Match Play Championship

The US PGA Tour will play two tournaments this week. One is in Arizona and the other in Mexico. This posting is for the Arizona tournament: Accenture Match Play Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Accenture Match Play Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	21.70
2	Nick Watney	22.20
3	Rory McIlroy	22.90
4	Paul Casey	23.50
5	Hunter Mahan	24.40
6	Alvaro Quiros	26.40
7	Matt Kuchar	28.20
8	Robert Karlsson	28.30
9	Justin Rose	28.60
10	Tiger Woods	28.70
11	Geoff Ogilvy	29.90
12	Bubba Watson	30.00
13	Bill Haas	30.90
14	Ryan Moore	32.10
15	Tim Clark	33.40

Match play events are usually difficult to pick players, as so many things can happen on one day. The better player could be feeling poorly, and the lesser player could be having a big day. That extenuates difference between the two players, and provides a better chance for the lesser player through to the next round. That makes it difficult to pick players for this tournament, but exciting to watch as one doesn't know when the upset is going to happen.

I am going to let my CLi calculation do the talking this week, and go with the top 5 in the CLi rankings: Mickelson (Hogan bracket; #1 seed), Watney (Jones bracket; #8 seed), McIlroy (Player bracket; #2 seed), Casey (Snead bracket; #2 seed), and Mahan (Player bracket; #5 seed). Each one of them are in a different bracket, except McIlroy and Mahan. As well, there are no #1 seeds, which is a good sign. #1 seeds tend to non make it to the end in this tournament.

That said, it is still difficult to pick for a match play tournament......let the fun.

Below are my 5 picks for the Accenture Match Play Championship :

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	21.70
2	Nick Watney	22.20
3	Rory McIlroy	22.90
4	Paul Casey	23.50
5	Hunter Mahan	24.40

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Justin Rose
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Nick Watney
4. Paul Casey
5. Graeme McDowell

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Accenture Match Play Championship

We have 2 players in common this week: Watney and Casey.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Accenture Match Play Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Northern Trust Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Northern Trust Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Phil Mickelson | 35 | $28,698
2. Dustin Johnson | 105 (MC) | $0
3. Matt Kuchar | 35 | $28,698
4. Steve Stricker | 29 | $41,329
5. Luke Donald | 90 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Phil Mickelson | 35 | $28,698
2. Steve Stricker | 29 | $41,329
3. Luke Donald | 90 (MC) | $0
4. Matt Kuchar | 35 | $28,698
5. J.B. Holmes | 12 | $112,667

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$98,725	$211,392	TI
Avg Rank	58.8	40.2	TI
Made Cut	3	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 5 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

It looks like my pick of Johnson vs. Holmes was not good decision. I should have gone with the Kentuckian....or at least Johnson should have woken up earlier on the first day to escape that 2 stroke penalty and be in a better mindset for the rest of the tournament.

Now I have dug myself a hole in the competition with Bolton, just like last year.....ugh.

Northern Trust Open

The US PGA Tour will stay in California this week to play the Northern Trust Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Northern Trust Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	7.55
2	Dustin Johnson	17.10
3	Matt Kuchar	18.65
4	Steve Stricker	18.75
5	Steve Marino	20.60
6	Luke Donald	21.05
7	Marc Leishman	23.00
8	Brendon De Jonge	23.50
9	Paul Casey	23.55
10	Mark Wilson	24.70
11	J.B. Holmes	26.60
12	Bubba Watson	26.65
13	Charles Howell III	27.05
14	Ricky Barnes	28.05
15	Fred Couples	30.90

I am going to pick Mickelson for my first pick. Lefty has a clear advantage per his CLi figure (7.55) being almost 10 points lower than the next player in the rankings.

Then I am going to pick Johnson. Even though he is trending the wrong way the past couple of tournaments, he was playing well before that, and has played well at this tournament the past two years (placing 3rd and 10th). His length will help him this week.

Kuchar seems like another good pick this week in terms of making the cut. He has not missed the cut in this tournament, and he has been playing well leading up to this tournament. In his last 3 tournaments he has placed 7th (Bob Hope), 5th (Sony Open), and 6th (Hyundai).

For my final two picks, I am going to go with Stricker and Donald. I skipped over Marino as I felt Donald had a better record in this tournament, and that his CLi would have been higher if he had played in tournaments this year (this is first tournament this year) -- which actually goes against the logic of the CLi based upon my configuration settings for this tournament (recent confidence is half of the equation).

Below are my 5 picks for the Northern Trust Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	7.55
2	Dustin Johnson	17.10
3	Matt Kuchar	18.65
4	Steve Stricker	18.75
5	Luke Donald	21.05

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Phil Mickelson
2. Steve Stricker
3. Luke Donald
4. Matt Kuchar
5. J.B. Holmes

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Northern Trust Open

We have 4 players in common this week: Mickelson, Stricker, Donald, Kuchar. -- hmmmmm, the one player difference is Holmes and Johnson....come on Johnson!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Northern Trust Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Review

It is now time to review the picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Dustin Johnson | 55 | $14,238
2. Brian Gay | 72 (MC) | $0
3. Vijay Singh | 26 | $46,620
4. Phil Mickelson | 9 | $163,800
5. Tim Clark | 154 (WD) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Nick Watney | 6 | $211,050
2. Dustin Johnson | 55 | $14,238
3. J.B. Holmes | 13 | $126,000
4. Geoff Ogilvy | 81 (MC) | $0
5. Tim Clark | 154 (WD) | $0

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$224,658	$351,288	TI
Avg Rank	63.2	61.8	TI
Made Cut	3	3	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 4 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Watney's surge in the final round pulled Bolton out of the dumpers this week. Watney moved up 23 spots to 6th with his 67 in the final round. Very nice on the part of Watney. Ugh on my part when comparing my results to Bolton's results this week.

In support of D.A. Points win this past week, it is good to see a fellow University of Illinois alumni win on the U.S. PGA Tour.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The US PGA Tour will be on the beautiful Monterey pennisula this week to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach Golf Links and supporting courses (Spyglass Hill Golf Course, Monterey Peninsula Shore Course.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

#	Player	CLi
1	Dustin Johnson	2.65
2	Brian Gay	8.55
3	Vijay Singh	9.90
4	Phil Mickelson	10.20
5	Tim Clark	10.50
6	Steve Marino	11.20
7	Jonathan Byrd	15.60
8	J.B. Holmes	17.45
9	Bo Van Pelt	22.25
10	Mark Wilson	22.90
11	Michael Allen	25.25
12	Bill Lunde	26.95
13	Nick Watney	29.50
14	Jim Furyk	31.55
15	Rory Sabbatini	31.95

Like last week, I am going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings: Johnson, Gay, Singh, Mickelson, and Clark.

It is hard to pass on Johnson, who has played in this tournament 3 times (the last 3 years) and has won it two timmes, and finished 7th the other time. Plus his CLi figure (2.65) is one of the lowest I have seen since Tiger dominated the CLi rankings.  Along with other players having higher CLi figures, having such a low CLi figure is usually a good sign that a player has an advantage at a tournament. 

The supposedly weak link in the top 5 is Brian Gay. However, the CLi calculation has him 2nd in the CLi rankings. Gay has only played in this tournament twice, having finished 18th (last year) and missing the cut the other time (2001). Since the missed cut is not factored in the CLi calculation (based upon my configuration settings -- see the configuration settings at the end of this posting), that means he places in the top 5 in the CLi rankings due to his finishes in tournaments leading up to this tournament this week. He has finished no worse than 18th in the past 4 tournaments he has played in, of which 3 of them are within the past 4 weeks. So his confidence level is strong at the moment. So it makes me feel confident in including him in this week's picks (as I also did last week in Phoenix).

Then to round out the 5 picks, Singh, Mickelson, and Clark enjoy playing at this tournament.  Singh and Mickelson have won the tournament at least once.  And all three of them are playing well leading up to this tournament. 

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am :

#	Player	CLi
1	Dustin Johnson	2.65
2	Brian Gay	8.55
3	Vijay Singh	9.90
4	Phil Mickelson	10.20
5	Tim Clark	10.50

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Nick Watney
2. Dustin Johnson
3. J.B. Holmes
4. Geoff Ogilvy
5. Tim Clark

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We have 2 players in common this week: Johnson and Clark.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Jonathan Byrd | 37 | $28,060
2. Mark Wilson | 1 | $1,098,000
3. David Toms | 75 (MC) | $0
4. Kevin Na | 75 | $0
5. Brian Gay | 18 | $82,350

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Dustin Johnson | 29 | $37,134
2. Phil Mickelson | 29 | $37,134
3. Nick Watney | 5 | $222,650
4. Ben Crane | 18 | $82,350
5. Jhonattan Vegas | 75 (MC) | $0

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,208,410	$379,268	TO
Avg Rank	41.2	31.2	TI
Made Cut	3	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 3 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

I picked a winner in Mark Wilson. However, the rest of my picks didn't pull through to give me a win against Bolton this week.  Now I am back in the hole, being 2 down. It is a good thing it is early in the season..