Shell Houston Open

The US PGA Tour moves to Texas to play the Shell Houston Open. This tournament is the warm-up for The Masters which will be next week.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Shell Houston Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Fred Couples	7.55
2	Matt Kuchar	13.55
3	Stuart Appleby	20.80
4	Lee Westwood	24.85
5	Johnson Wagner	25.10
6	Steve Stricker	29.20
7	Hunter Mahan	29.65
8	J.B. Holmes	29.75
9	Steve Marino	29.95
10	Ben Crane	30.40
11	John Senden	30.85
12	Webb Simpson	31.40
13	Charley Hoffman	32.20
14	Aaron Baddeley	33.00
15	Lucas Glover	35.00

I am going to pass on the first player: Couples. It is hard to pass on him, as he plays so well in his adopted home town of Houston (where he went to college). In addition, he has played well in both Champions and USA PGA Tour events this year even though he is 51 years old. However, I am not sure if he can keep it going this year. So I am passing up on him.

Then I am going to pick the next 5 players: Kuchar, Appleby, Westwood, Wagner, and Sticker.

Below are my 5 picks for the Shell Houston Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	Matt Kuchar	13.55
2	Stuart Appleby	20.80
3	Lee Westwood	24.85
4	Johnson Wagner	25.10
5	Steve Stricker	29.20

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Marc Leishman
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Steve Marino
4. Jason Day
5. Lucas Glover

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Shell Houston Open

We have 1 player in common this week: Kuchar.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Shell Houston Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Chris Couch | 60 | $13,140
2. Robert Allenby | 38 | $23,400
3. Hunter Mahan | 38 | $23,400
4. Webb Simpson | 96 (MC) | $0
5. Justin Rose | 3 | $312,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Dustin Johnson | 89 (MC) | $0
2. Justin Rose | 3 | $312,000
3. Hunter Mahan | 38 | $23,400
4. Martin Laird | 1 | $1,080,000
5. Kevin Na | 30 | $34,875

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$371,940	$1,450,275	TI
Avg Rank	47.0	32.2	TI
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

The US PGA Tour is on the west coast of Florida this week to play the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Innisbruck.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

#	Player	CLi
1	Chris Couch	13.80
2	Robert Allenby	17.35
3	Hunter Mahan	17.35
4	Webb Simpson	21.50
5	Vijay Singh	23.80
6	Sergio Garcia	25.25
7	Justin Rose	25.75
8	Kevin Na	26.05
9	Tiger Woods	27.80
10	Brandt Snedeker	30.15
11	J.J. Henry	32.70
12	J.B. Holmes	33.55
13	Ernie Els	34.45
14	Zach Johnson	34.45
15	John Senden	34.55

No player has a CLi less than 10. That usually means that there is not a clear favorite to play well this week. There are however, 3 players with CLis in the tens.

My first 3 picks will be with the CLi rankings: Couch, Allenby, and Mahan.

Couch placed 4th in this tournament last year, and placed 5th last weekk in the Transitions. He has not missed a cut in the 5 tournaments he has played in this year, with 3 top 10s and 36th being his worse finish. [ see analysis ]

Allenby has played in this tournament 8 times since 2001. The last 5 times he played in the tournament (he missed 2008) he has finished no worse than 32nd, with his best finish being 4th in 2006. He has finished in the top 25 in the last 3 medal play tournaments he has played in, with his best finish being 4th at the Northern Trust Open. [ see analysis ]

Mahan has finished 25h over better in the lat 3 years of this tournament. And this year, in the 7 tournament he has played in he has made every cut and placed in the top 10 four of those tournaments. [ see analysis ]

For my 4th pick, I will stick with the CLi rankings and pick the 4th player: Simpson. Simpson played well last week in the Transitions where had a wonderful chance to win the tournament before faltering down the stretch in the last round. He missed the cut in this tournament last year. So that doesn't bode well. However, he did place 11th in 2009 and 31st in 2008 when he was an amateur. Let's hope he thinks about those finishs when he plays this week. [ see analysis ]

I will skip over Singh and Garcia as they are an unkown quantity for me...and inconsistent this year. I have picked Singh several times, and when I pick him, he doesn't do well. So I have decided to hold off on picking him unless his CLi figure is clearly different than other players.

My final and 5th pick is Rose. He played well last week at the Transitions, leading the tournament after 3 rounds. He faltered in the final round, which was most likely because of nerves. I think he is still hitting the ball well, and scoring well.  He did miss the cut in this tournament last year, however, in all of his prior starts here (5 of them) he made the cut.  So I see him having a solid finish this week at Arnie's place. see analysis ]

Below are my 5 picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational :

#	Player	CLi
1	Chris Couch	13.80
2	Robert Allenby	17.35
3	Hunter Mahan	17.35
4	Webb Simpson	21.50
5	Justin Rose	25.75

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Justin Rose
3. Hunter Mahan
4. Martin Laird
5. Kevin Na

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Arnold Palmer Invitational

We have 2 players in common this week: Rose and Mahan.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Transitions Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Transitions Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Nick Watney | 13 | $110,000
2. Martin Laird | 5 | $180,125
3. K.J. Choi | 93 (MC) | $0
4. Spencer Levin | 44 | $16,233
5. Charles Howell III | 73 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Bubba Watson | 28 | $34,283
2. Padraig Harrington | 81 (MC) | $0
3. Nick Watney | 13 | $110,000
4. Jonathan Byrd | 20 | $55,481
5. Martin Kaymer | 20 | $55,481

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$306,358	$255,245	TO
Avg Rank	45.6	32.4	TI
Made Cut	3	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 9 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

Transitions Championship

The US PGA Tour is on the west coast of Florida this week to play the Transitions Championship at Innisbruck.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Transitions Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Nick Watney	7.75
2	Martin Laird	20.30
3	Mark Calcavecchia	20.80
4	K.J. Choi	22.25
5	Spencer Levin	23.60
6	Jimmy Walker	23.90
7	Charles Howell III	24.10
8	Vijay Singh	24.20
9	Brian Gay	25.75
10	Bubba Watson	26.50
11	Webb Simpson	27.15
12	Stuart Appleby	27.50
13	Retief Goosen	28.10
14	Ryan Moore	30.70
15	Justin Rose	32.80

Watney is a no-brainer pick this week (the last time I said that it was when Tiger Woods was dominating) -- this is reflected in his low CLi figure (7.75, below 10) compared to the 2nd player's cli figure (Laird, 20.30).

Watney has played in this tournament for the past 5 years and not missed the cut. Each year he has improved on his finish, placing 58th, 48th, 23rd, 12th, and 4th. And then on top of his good play in this tournament, he is playing well leading up to the tournament. He won last week at Doral and has not finished out of the top 10 in any of the 5 tournaments he has played in this year.

Laird looks like another good pick. He has played this tournament once, finishing 28th. In the last 4 tournaments he has played in, he has finished no worse then 33rd, with this best finish being 3rd at the Waste Management Phoenix Open 4 weeks ago. He finished 10th last week at Doral.

I am going to skip over Calcavecchia, and pick Choi and Levin. Then I will skip over Walker to pick Howell.

That means I am leaving out Singh, which could be a poor move on my part as he likes this tournament. However, he has been erradict this year. He could play well here, or he could struggle.  I don't want to take that chance when I have players likes like Howell, Choi, and the up-and-coming Levin available.

Below are my 5 picks for the Transitions Championship :

#	Player	CLi
1	Nick Watney	7.75
2	Martin Laird	20.30
3	K.J. Choi	22.25
4	Spencer Levin	23.60
5	Charles Howell III	24.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Bubba Watson
2. Padraig Harrington
3. Nick Watney
4. Jonathan Byrd
5. MArtin Kaymer

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Transitions Championship

We have 1 player in common this week: Watney.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Transitions Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Cadillac Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Cadillac Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Matt Kuchar | 5 | $350,000
2. Nick Watney | 1 | $1,400,000
3. Alvaro Quiros | 64 | $40,250
4. Vijay Singh | 22 | $83,000
5. Phil Mickelson | 55 | $45,500

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Martin Kaymer | 24 | $77,250
2. Matt Kuchar | 5 | $350,000
3. Graeme McDowell | 42 | $59,000
4. Nick Watney | 1 | $1,400,000
5. Bill Haas | 31 | $69,500

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,918,750	$1,955,750	TI
Avg Rank	29.4	20.6	TI
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 8 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

A winner in Watney and a 5th place finish in Kuchar, but for both Bolton and I had each one of them. The result: a win by Bolton.

Puerto Rico Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Puerto Rico Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Jerry Kelly | 128 (WD) | $0
2. Bryce Molder | 71 (MC) | $0
3. Jeff Quinney | 42 | $11,261
4. John Merrick | 11 | $80,500
5. Brendon De Jonge | 14 | $61,250

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Jerry Kelly | 128 (WD) | $0
2. Brendon De Jonge | 14 | $61,250
3. Bryce Molder | 71 (MC) | $0
4. Matt Every | 22 | $32,492
5. Kevin Stadler | 18 | $47,250

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$153,011	$140,992	TO
Avg Rank	53.2	50.6	TI
Made Cut	3	3	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	DRAW

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was a draw.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 7 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

Well, the "draws" team pulled even with me. That is not a good sign.

Cadillac Championship

As mentioned in my earlier post today, the week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments this week. One is the Puerto Rico Open and the other one is the Cadillac Championship at Doral. This post is for the Cadillac Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Cadillac Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Matt Kuchar	7.70
2	Nick Watney	8.90
3	Alvaro Quiros	10.50
4	Vijay Singh	11.25
5	Aaron Baddeley	12.80
6	Charl Schwartzel	15.20
7	Bill Haas	15.95
8	Martin Kaymer	16.45
9	Tiger Woods	16.55
10	Phil Mickelson	17.75
11	Graeme McDowell	18.50
12	Geoff Ogilvy	19.45
13	Paul Casey	21.00
14	Robert Allenby	21.70
15	Justin Rose	23.15

As mentioned in my Puerto Rico Open post, I am running late with my posts this week....and it had to be a week when there are two posts / two tournaments (oh, well, I am going to let the CLi do it's work :-) ).

As such, my research on the field and the CLi is not detailed. I was able to look through the CLi results quickly, and decided to stick with the top 4. Then I am going to branch down to the 10th place to pick Mickelson. He likes this course...

Below are my 5 picks for the Cadillac Championship :

#	Player	CLi
1	Matt Kuchar	7.70
2	Nick Watney	8.90
3	Alvaro Quiros	10.50
4	Vijay Singh	11.25
5	Phil Mickelson	17.75

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Martin Kaymer
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Graeme McDowell
4. Nick Watney
5. Bill Haas

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Cadillac Championship

We have 2 players in common this week: Kuchar and Watney.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Cadillac Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Puerto Rico Open

The week the US PGA Tour breaks into two, with two tournaments playing at the same time. The "big" guys are playing in the Cadillac Championship at Doral, and the "normal" tour guys on the island of Puerto Rico to play the Puerto Rico Open. This post is for the Puerto Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Puerto Rico Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Jerry Kelly	3.80
2	Bryce Molder	15.00
3	Jeff Quinney	16.50
4	John Merrick	23.70
5	Brendon De Jonge	24.70
6	Briny Baird	25.80
7	Kent Jones	29.20
8	Erik Compton	29.70
9	Kevin Stadler	29.80
10	Bill Lunde	32.60
11	Richard S Johnson	33.70
12	James Driscoll	34.40
13	Cameron Tringale	35.30
14	Shaun Micheel	42.70
15	Joe Ogilvie	43.00

Since I am late this week with my posts, I am just going to go with the top 5 in the CLi rankings. I did a quick check on their individual records leading up to the tournament and how they have faired in past instances of the tournament and didn't see anything glaring for why I shouldn't go with the top 5. So the top 5 it is. go Kelly, Molder, Quinney, Merrick, and De Jonge.

Below are my 5 picks for the Puerto Rico Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	Jerry Kelly	3.80
2	Bryce Molder	15.00
3	Jeff Quinney	16.50
4	John Merrick	23.70
5	Brendon De Jonge	24.70

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Jerry Kelly
2. Brendon De Jonge
3. Bryce Molder
4. Matt Every
5. Kevin Stadler

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Puerto Rico Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Kelly, De Jonge, and Molder.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Puerto Rico Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
3	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Honda Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Honda Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Vijay Singh | 109 (MC) | $0
2. Ben Crane | 139 (WD) | $0
3. Jason Dufner | 51 | $13,595
4. Ernie Els | 70 | $11,286
5. Rory McIlroy | 70 | $11,286

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Graeme McDowell | 6 | $184,538
2. Vijay Singh | 109 (MC) | $0
3. Robert Allenby | 21 | $63,840
4. Luke Donald | 10 | $136,800
5. Matt Kuchar | 17 | $82,650

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$36,167	$467,828	TI
Avg Rank	87.8	32.6	TI
Made Cut	3	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 7 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

This tournament was not even close...it was a whooping by Bolton......hmmmm.