Greenbrier Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is north of the border in Canada to play the Greenbrier Classic in the beautiful town of Vancouver.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Greenbrier Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Charles Howell III	5.10
2	Woody Austin	9.80
3	Brendon De Jonge	10.05
4	Cameron Percy	16.75
5	Davis Love III	18.50
6	Scott Piercy	19.30
7	Chris Stroud	20.70
8	Spencer Levin	22.60
9	Troy Matteson	23.20
10	John Senden	24.00
11	Briny Baird	25.25
12	Sergio Garcia	25.50
13	Aron Price	27.45
14	J.J. Henry	29.70
15	Brett Wetterich	29.70

This is only the second instances of the Greenbrier Classic. So there is not the normal 5+ years of data to use for calculating how well players play in this tournament and on this golf course. Therefore, I changed the CLi configuration to only look back 1 year, and put less weight on the past results in this tournament (see the configuration settings at the end of this posting). This means that the CLi figures are mainly based upon how well players have played leading up to this tournament.

The first three players have CLi figures below 10, which is a good sign they have a higher probability to play well than other players in the field. These three players are Howell III (analysis), Austin (analysis), and De Jonge (analysis). I am going to pick those three players.

I am going to skip over Percy (analysis), as he has withdrawn late in the past two tournaments (The RBC Canadian Classic and the Viking Classic). I don't want to risk a WD with him, even though he did place 7th in last year's Greenbrier.

Love III (analysis) has been a rejuvenated player and has been playing well the past four tournaments he has played in. In addition, the Greenbrier is a place that brings back good memories for older players (just ask Watson). This could bode well for Love playing well this week.

For my final pick, I am going to go with Piercy (analysis) --- don't get confuse him with Percy. Piercy placed 6th at the RBC Canadian Open last week, has not missed the cut in his last 5 starts, and he placed 16th in last year's Greenbrier.

Below are my 5 picks for the Greenbrier Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	Charles Howell III	5.10
2	Woody Austin	9.80
3	Brendon De Jonge	10.05
4	Davis Love III	18.50
5	Scott Piercy	19.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Sergio Garcia
2. Webb Simpson
3. Phil Mickelson
4. Jeff Overton
5. Charles Howell III

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Greenbrier Classic

We have 1 player in common this week: Howell III.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Greenbrier Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
1	15%	15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	15%	15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

RBC Canadian Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the RBC Canadian Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. George McNeill | 77 (MC) | $0
2. Luke Donald | 17 | $78,000
3. Bryce Molder | 95 (MC) | $0
4. Chez Reavie | 13 | $105,300
5. Carl Pettersson | 107 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Matt Kuchar | 77 (MC) | $0
2. Charl Schwartzel | 9 | $140,400
3. Luke Donald | 17 | $78,000
4. Ryan Moore | 29 | $37,700
5. Bo Van Pelt | 6 | $174,200

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$183,300	$430,300	TI
Avg Rank	61.8	27.6	TI
Made Cut	2	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 8 wins to the Tour Outsider, 21 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

There is now no chance for me to win this year. I am now 13 tournaments behind Bolton, and there are only 12 tournaments left in the season. All I can do now is strive to make it respectable.

RBC Canadian Open

This week the US PGA Tour is north of the border in Canada to play the RBC Canadian Open in the beautiful town of Vancouver.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the RBC Canadian Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	George McNeill	8.20
2	Luke Donald	10.70
3	Bryce Molder	11.40
4	Chez Reavie	11.70
5	Carl Pettersson	12.80
6	Blake Adams	16.30
7	Tom Pernice Jr	18.10
8	Matt Kuchar	23.00
9	James Driscoll	24.40
10	John Merrick	24.70
11	Bo Van Pelt	25.30
12	Michael Putnam	26.90
13	Kevin Streelman	28.10
14	Dean Wilson	28.30
15	Briny Baird	29.30

As with the Viking Classic week, I am going to keep it simple this week for the RBC Canadian Open and go with the top 5 in the CLi rankings. All of the players in the top 5 have a CLi figure between 8.20 and 12.80. Then after that, the 6th player's CLi figure jumps up to 16.30.

Below are my 5 picks for the RBC Canadian Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	George McNeill	8.20
2	Luke Donald	10.70
3	Bryce Molder	11.40
4	Chez Reavie	11.70
5	Carl Pettersson	12.80

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Matt Kuchar
2. Charl Schwartzel
3. Luke Donald
4. Ryan Moore
5. Bo Van Pelt

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: RBC Canadian Open

We have 1 player in common this week: Donald.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the RBC Canadian Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Viking Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Viking Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. D. J. Trahan | 9 | $93,600
2. Brendon De Jonge | 13 | $69,600
3. Johnson Wagner | 75 (MC) | $0
4. Chris Stroud | 59 | $7,956
5. Troy Matteson | 18 | $40,800

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Chris Kirk | 1 | $648,000
2. John Senden | 27 | $24,480
3. Heath Slocum | 61 | $7,776
4. Brendon De Jonge | 13 | $69,600
5. Chez Reavie | 16 | $59,400

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$211,956	$809,256	TI
Avg Rank	34.8	23.6	TI
Made Cut	4	5	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 8 wins to the Tour Outsider, 20 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

This weekend was looking good heading into Sunday. I had a chance to win both the British Open and the Viking Classic. However, with Kirk pulling out his first win and Trahan falling back on the final day, this weekend ended up being a wash. I won the British Open, and Bolton won the Viking Classic.

With 13 tournaments left this season, I have to win every single one from here on out to win this season.  This is what I would call hanging by a very thin thread. hmmmm......

British Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the British Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Rory McIlroy | 25 | $62,913
2. Nick Watney | 87 (MC) | $0
3. Lee Westwood | 72 (MC) | $0
4. Steve Stricker | 12 | $126,362
5. Sergio Garcia | 9 | $168,304

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Luke Donald | 94 (MC) | $0
2. Lee Westwood | 72 (MC) | $0
3. Sergio Garcia | 9 | $168,304
4. Charl Schwartzel | 16 | $90,336
5. Jason Day | 30 | $47,126

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$357,579	$305,766	TO
Avg Rank	41.0	44.2	TO
Made Cut	3	3	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 8 wins to the Tour Outsider, 19 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

Even with two players missing the cut, I was able to pull a win out of this tournament.  I am staying in the game...by a thread.

Viking Classic

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments, one being a major across the pond (British Open), and the other one in Mississippi, the Viking Classic. This post is for the Viking Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Viking Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	D.J. Trahan	6.35
2	Brendon De Jonge	8.35
3	Johnson Wagner	8.75
4	Chris Stroud	10.50
5	Troy Matteson	10.90
6	Shane Bertsch	14.35
7	Will MacKenzie	15.25
8	Joe Ogilvie	15.75
9	Heath Slocum	16.40
10	Dean Wilson	16.50
11	Briny Baird	22.70
12	John Senden	23.15
13	Tim Petrovic	25.75
14	Chris Riley	27.45
15	Shaun Micheel	27.80

I am going to keep it simple for the Viking Classic and go with the top 5 in the CLi rankings. All of them have a CLi figure of 10 or below (if one rounds down :-) ).

All 5 of these players have played well in this tournament. Trahan (analysis) has placed 1st and 3rd in the 4 times he has played this tournament, and has not missed a cut in those 4 appearances. De Jonge (analysis) placed 3rd last year. Wagner (analysis) has played the tournament twice and has finished 2nd and 8th. Stroud (analysis) finished 5th last year. Matteson (analysis) placed 8th in 2006. And none of them have missed a cut in the event.

Below are my 5 picks for the Viking Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	D.J. Trahan	6.35
2	Brendon De Jonge	8.35
3	Johnson Wagner	8.75
4	Chris Stroud	10.50
5	Troy Matteson	10.90

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Chris Kirk
2. John Senden
3. Heath Slocum
4. Brendon De Jonge
5. Chez Reavie

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Viking Classic

We have 1 player in common this week: De Jonge.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Viking Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

British Open

This week the US PGA Tour is going across the pond to the British Open at Royal St. George's golf course.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the British Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Rory McIlroy	6.4
2	Nick Watney	7.3
3	Lee Westwood	8.1
4	Steve Stricker	9.4
5	Sergio Garcia	10.8
6	Luke Donald	11.1
7	Retief Goosen	13.2
8	Robert Rock	22.9
9	Fredrik Jacobson	24.1
10	Zach Johnson	31.9
11	Ian Poulter	31.9
12	K.J. Choi	32.1
13	Adam Scott	32.1
14	Bo Van Pelt	32.4
15	Rickie Fowler	32.6

The first 7 players are within 6 CLi points. Then there is a 9 point difference between the 7th and 8th players. In addition, the first 7 players have low CLi figures, with most of them being below 10.  So I am really looking at the top 7 players to pick my 5 players this week. All 7 players look good however.

In picking my five players I am going start with the assumption that the top 5 players are in, and then try to justify why I should move one or two of them out for players that are in the 6th and 7th positions in the CLi rankings.

Donald (analysis) and Goosen (analysis) are the 6th and 7th players in the list.  Donald is the current number one player in the world rankings, and it would be difficult to explain leaving him out of my picks for that fact alone -- not to mention that he won last week at the Scottish Open. And Goosen is a strong player on tough and "weird" courses like Royal St. George's. He plays patiently and lets the other players backup while he stays steady.

However, Donald has a better chance than Goosen to play well in my opinion. So then I have to compare another player in the top 5 with Donald to pull out in place of Donald. I like the Europeans, so I am going to keep with McIlroy (analysis), Westwood (analysis), and Garcia (analysis). Watney (analysis) has been playing so consistent all season long that it is hard to go against him. That leaves Stricker (analysis) to compare against Donald.

Both Stricker and Donald won last week; Stricker at the John Deere Classic and Donald at the Scottish Open. They both shot low numbers to win their respective tournaments.  Both are patient and consistent players with strong short games -- which bode well for British Open style of golf courses.  But I am going to stick with Stricker for the mere fact that Donald has a lot of pressure on him to win this week being that he is British (although he lives in the USA now) and is the number one player in the world. Stricker has less pressure and can possibly have a stronger focus on playing well (and with less distractions) at Royal St. George's this week than Donald.

However, it might not be smart of me to pick either Stricker or Donald. In the last 10 years, the only player that has won their previous tournament leading up to the British Open has been Padraig Harrington...and that was in 2007 and 2008 when he won the Irish PGA Championship, which is not sanctioned by any of the major tours. So players that win their previous tournaments leading up to the British Open are not necessarily a strong pick -- at least for a tournament sanctioned by one of the leading tours.

Below are my 5 picks for the British Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	Rory McIlroy	6.4
2	Nick Watney	7.3
3	Lee Westwood	8.1
4	Steve Stricker	9.4
5	Sergio Garcia	10.8

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Luke Donald
2. Lee Westwood
3. Sergio Garcia
4. Charl Schwartzel
5. Jason Day

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: British Open

We have 2 players in common this week: Westwood and Garcia.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the British Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

John Deere Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the John Deere Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Steve Stricker | 1 | $810,000
2. Heath Slocum | 38 | $18,450
3. Zach Johnson | 3 | $261,000
4. Jason Day | 68 | $9,090
5. Charles Howell III | 5 | $171,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Steve Stricker | 1 | $810,000
2. Jason Day | 68 | $9,090
3. Charles Howell III | 5 | $171,000
4. David Toms | 153 (WD) | $0
5. Zach Johnson | 3 | $261,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,269,540	$1,251,090	TO
Avg Rank	23.0	46.0	TO
Made Cut	5	4	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 7 wins to the Tour Outsider, 19 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

This was a good tournament for both Bolton and I. We both had a winner with Stricker. He won the tournament for a 3rd straight year. Go Illini!! Both Bolton and I had 3 top 5 picks with Stricker, Johnson, and Howell. I ended up winning the tournament over Bolton because Toms withdrew from the tournament, and Slocum made the cut and place 38th.

I am still hanging on by a thread, albeit it a very thin thread.

John Deere Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is playing the John Deere Classic in Illinois, as a warm up to next week's British Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the John Deere Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	5.95
2	Heath Slocum	12.50
3	Zach Johnson	14.50
4	Rod Pampling	15.30
5	Andres Romero	15.70
6	Jason Day	16.30
7	Charles Howell III	16.45
8	Paul Goydos	19.85
9	Chris Stroud	21.80
10	David Mathis	21.85
11	Troy Matteson	22.70
12	Jonathan Byrd	24.80
13	Jerry Kelly	25.05
14	Vaughn Taylor	25.65
15	Joe Ogilvie	26.35

I am going to pick the top 3 players in the CLi rankings: Stricker (analysis), Slocum (analysis), and Johnson (analysis). Then I am going to pick Day (analysis) and Howell (analysis) for my 4th and 5th picks.

Even though I am still traveling this week, I decided to go outside the top 5 players and pick the 6th and 7th players in the list. In doing so, I skipped over Rod Pampling (analysis) and Andres Romero (analysis).

Below are my 5 picks for the John Deere Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	5.95
2	Heath Slocum	12.50
3	Zach Johnson	14.50
4	Jason Day	16.30
5	Charles Howell III	16.45

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Steve Stricker
2. Jason Day
3. Charles Howell III
4. David Toms
5. Zach Johnson

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: John Deere Classic

We have 4 players in common this week: Stricker, Day, Howell, and Johnson. Let's go Slocum!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the John Deere Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

AT&T National Review

It is now time to review the picks for the AT&T National to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Ryan Moore | 68 | $12,710
2. Carl Pettersson | 34 | $34,255
3. Bo Van Pelt | 11 | $148,800
4. Hunter Mahan | 30 | $41,230
5. Bryce Molder | 8 | $179,800

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Ryan Moore | 68 | $12,710
2. J.B. Holmes | 47 | $17,577
3. Webb Simpson | 8 | $179,800
4. Nick Watney | 1 | $1,116,000
5. Bo Van Pelt | 2 | $528,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$416,795	$1,854,087	TI
Avg Rank	30.2	25.2	TI
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 6 wins to the Tour Outsider, 19 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

We both did well this week as we had all 5 of our players make the cut. However, Bolton had the feather in the cap with his pick of Watney, who ended up winning the tournament. Very nice on both the part of Bolton and Watney. However, it puts me further in the hole for the season standings against Bolton.