Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Greenbrier Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is north of the border in Canada to play the Greenbrier Classic in the beautiful town of Vancouver.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Greenbrier Classic.

# Player CLi 
1 Charles Howell III  5.10
2 Woody Austin  9.80
3 Brendon De Jonge  10.05
4 Cameron Percy  16.75
5 Davis Love III  18.50
6 Scott Piercy  19.30
7 Chris Stroud  20.70
8 Spencer Levin  22.60
9 Troy Matteson  23.20
10 John Senden  24.00
11 Briny Baird  25.25
12 Sergio Garcia  25.50
13 Aron Price  27.45
14 J.J. Henry  29.70
15 Brett Wetterich  29.70

This is only the second instances of the Greenbrier Classic. So there is not the normal 5+ years of data to use for calculating how well players play in this tournament and on this golf course. Therefore, I changed the CLi configuration to only look back 1 year, and put less weight on the past results in this tournament (see the configuration settings at the end of this posting). This means that the CLi figures are mainly based upon how well players have played leading up to this tournament.

The first three players have CLi figures below 10, which is a good sign they have a higher probability to play well than other players in the field. These three players are Howell III (analysis), Austin (analysis), and De Jonge (analysis). I am going to pick those three players.

I am going to skip over Percy (analysis), as he has withdrawn late in the past two tournaments (The RBC Canadian Classic and the Viking Classic). I don't want to risk a WD with him, even though he did place 7th in last year's Greenbrier.

Love III (analysis) has been a rejuvenated player and has been playing well the past four tournaments he has played in. In addition, the Greenbrier is a place that brings back good memories for older players (just ask Watson). This could bode well for Love playing well this week.

For my final pick, I am going to go with Piercy (analysis) --- don't get confuse him with Percy. Piercy placed 6th at the RBC Canadian Open last week, has not missed the cut in his last 5 starts, and he placed 16th in last year's Greenbrier.

Below are my 5 picks for the Greenbrier Classic :

# Player CLi 
1 Charles Howell III  5.10
2 Woody Austin  9.80
3 Brendon De Jonge  10.05
4 Davis Love III  18.50
5 Scott Piercy  19.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Sergio Garcia
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Phil Mickelson
  4. Jeff Overton
  5. Charles Howell III
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Greenbrier Classic

We have 1 player in common this week: Howell III.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Greenbrier Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
1 15% 15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 15% 15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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