Waste Management Phoenix Open

The US PGA Tour will be in the desert of Arizona this week to play the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Jonathan Byrd	8.00
2	Mark Wilson	8.55
3	David Toms	11.20
4	Kevin Na	13.10
5	Brian Gay	15.80
6	Robert Garrigus	17.00
7	Ryan Palmer	17.30
8	Ben Crane	19.05
9	Bubba Watson	20.15
10	Y.E. Yang	21.65
11	Charles Howell III	22.25
12	Rickie Fowler	22.70
13	Phil Mickelson	23.45
14	Brandt Snedeker	24.50
15	Hunter Mahan	25.50

This week I am going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings. Byrd, Wilson, Toms, Na, and Gay all look like good picks in this tournament.

Below are my 5 picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	Jonathan Byrd	8.00
2	Mark Wilson	8.55
3	David Toms	11.20
4	Kevin Na	13.10
5	Brian Gay	15.80

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Phil Mickelson
3. Nick Watney
4. Ben Crane
5. Jhonattan Vegas

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Waste Management Phoenix Open

We have 0 players in common this week. It should make for a fun-filled week to watch the tournament while keeping an eye on the Packers-Steelers in the Superbowl.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Farmer's Insurance Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Farmers Insurance Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Ben Crane | 14 | $104,400
2. Charles Howell III | 14 | $104,400
3. Ryuji Imada | 120 (MC) | $0
4. Tiger Woods | 44 | $18,096
5. Rickie Fowler | 20 | $65,192

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Bill Haas | 9 | $150,800
2. Nick Watney | 6 | $194,300
3. Ben Crane | 14 | $104,400
4. Rickie Fowler | 20 | $65,192
5. Tiger Woods | 44 | $18,096

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$292,088	$532,788	TI
Avg Rank	42.4	18.6	TI
Made Cut	4	5	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

I bet against the hot hand (Bill Haas) in this tournament, and it bit me in the butt. Maybe I will learn my lesson one of these days. It also didn't help me that Watney (one of Bolton's picks) picked up 50 places on the last day to move into a tie for 6th. Nice pick Bolton; great playing Watney.

Farmer's Insurance Open

The US PGA Tour moves to California to play the Farmer's Insurance Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Farmer's Insurance Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Alex Prugh	10.85
2	Ben Crane	11.50
3	Charles Howell III	14.35
4	Ryuji Imada	15.55
5	Bill Haas	17.20
6	Tiger Woods	17.30
7	Rickie Fowler	19.10
8	Marc Leishman	20.50
9	Webb Simpson	21.05
10	Justin Rose	22.05
11	Nick Watney	22.05
12	Rory Sabbatini	22.75
13	Brandt Snedeker	23.95
14	Davis Love III	25.90
15	Arjun Atwal	26.10

I am going to skip over Prugh this week. This is his second consecutive tournament to be at the top of the CLi list, and he has a distinct advantage based upon his CLi figure. However, when looking at the details of his finishes that the CLi calculation used, the CLi calculation is using only one year of data for his finishes at this tournament (as he has only played in this tournament once). He finished 5th in that one event. That great finish for him might be biasing the CLi calculation in this case. I could change the weights for the formula to put less weight on the past instances of the tournament because of this issue. However, I feel that past finishes in this tournament should still receive the 50% weight I have set for my CLi calculation. As well, when looking at the rest of the top 15 players, I agree with the rankings after Prugh in the list. So I am going stick with this CLi calculation setting.

I will pick the next 3 players in the list after Prugh: Crane, Howell, and Imada. Then I am going to against the hot hand of Haas, and skip over him to pick Woods and Fowler. Although Woods is an unknown factor these days as depending on which Woods shows up, he loves playing at Torrey Pines. So I am going to go with him in the hopes that the Woods-of-old shows up this week at Torrey Pines. Then I am going to pick the young gun, Fowler, because he likes playing in southern California and can shoot some low numbers that could give him a solid showing in this tournament...like his 5th place last year.

Below are my 5 picks for the Farmer's Insurance Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	Ben Crane	11.50
2	Charles Howell III	14.35
3	Ryuji Imada	15.55
4	Tiger Woods	17.30
5	Rickie Fowler	19.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Bill Haas
2. Nick Watney
3. Ben Crane
4. Rickie Fowler
5. Tiger Woods

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Farmer's Insurance Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Crane, Fowler, and Woods.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Bob Hope Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Bob Hope Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Alex Prugh | 106 (MC) | $0
2. Bill Haas | 2 | $440,000
3. Matt Kuchar | 7 | $150.625
4. Bo Van Pelt | 74 (MC) | $0
5. Rory Sabbatini | 89 | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Matt Kuchar | 7 | $150,625
2. Bill Haas | 2 | $440,000
3. D.J. Trahan | 61 | $10,700
4. Steve Marino | 66 | $10,350
5. Ryan Moore | 125 (WD) | $0

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$590,625	$611,675	TI
Avg Rank	55.6	52.2	TI
Made Cut	2	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Bob Hope Classic

The US PGA Tour moves to the mainland to play the Bob Hope Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Bob Hope Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Alex Prugh	4.60
2	Bill Haas	5.90
3	Matt Kuchar	13.05
4	Bo Van Pelt	13.85
5	Webb Simpson	13.95
6	Chad Campbell	15.15
7	Rory Sabbatini	15.50
8	John Senden	16.30
9	Pat Perez	19.15
10	D.J. Trahan	22.70
11	Colt Knost	23.90
12	Steve Marino	25.25
13	Brian Gay	25.85
14	Charley Hoffman	26.85
15	David Toms	27.80

For my first 4 picks, I am going to go with the CLi: Prugh, Haas, Kuchar, and Van Pelt. Three of those picks are logic. It is the Prugh pick that is a little strange. I would not have picked Prugh normally, as he is not a known player. however, the CLi calculation has him at the top of the list. He has only played the Bob Hope once, but in the time he did play (2010), he finished 5th. In the previous tournaments leading up to this week (Sony Open, Justin Timberlake, and Frys.com), he has finished 20th, 41st, and 2nd respectively. So he is playing well leading up to this tournament.

For my final pick, I am going to skip down to Rory Sabbatini.  I had the choice of picking Simpson or Campbell, both good picks.  However, I am going to go with Sabbatini because of his good play last week in the Sony Open (13th) and his finish in last year's Bob Hope (10th).

Below are my 5 picks for the Bob Hope Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	Alex Prugh	4.60
2	Bill Haas	5.90
3	Matt Kuchar	13.05
4	Bo Van Pelt	13.85
5	Rory Sabbatini	15.50

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Matt Kuchar
2. Bill Haas
3. D.J. Trahan
4. Steve Marino
5. Ryan Moore

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Bob Hope Classic

We have 2 players in common this week: Kuchar and Haas.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Bob Hope Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Sony Open in Hawaii Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Sony Open of Hawaii to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Charles Howell III | 68 (MC) | $10,395
2. Kevin Na | 20 | $57,357
3. Ernie Els | 42 | $19,800
4. Adam Scott | 102 (MC) | $0
5. Steve Stricker | 9 | $143,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Steve Stricker | 9 | $143,000
2. Jim Furyk | 93 (MC) | $0
3. Robert Allenby | 102 (MC) | $0
4. Carl Pettersson | 84 (MC) | $0
5. Charles Howell III | 68 (MC) | $10,395

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$230,552	$153,395	TO
Avg Rank	48.2	71.2	TO
Made Cut	3	1	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 0 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Sony Open in Hawaii

The second tournament of the 2011 US PGA Tour season stays in Hawaii, as the first full field event takes place: Sony Open in Hawaii.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Sony Open in Hawaii.

#	Player	CLi
1	Charles Howell III	11.70
2	Kevin Na	16.50
3	Charles Warren	16.70
4	Ernie Els	16.85
5	Adam Scott	17.40
6	Webb Simpson	19.50
7	Chad Campbell	19.75
8	Steve Marino	20.20
9	Steve Stricker	20.80
10	K.J. Choi	22.10
11	Carl Pettersson	22.50
12	Tim Clark	22.55
13	Zach Johnson	22.75
14	Ryuji Imada	24.60
15	Robert Allenby	25.65

For my first 4 picks, I am going to go with the Howell, Na Els and Scott.  I am skipping Warren because I needed one player removed to be able to pick Stricker for my 5th pick. Warren seems to be the weakest out of the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.

Below are my 5 picks for the Sony Open in Hawaii :

#	Player	CLi
1	Charles Howell III	11.70
2	Kevin Na	16.50
3	Ernie Els	16.85
4	Adam Scott	17.40
5	Steve Stricker	20.80

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Steve Stricker
2. Jim Furyk
3. Robert Allenby
4. Carl Pettersson
5. Charles Howell III

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Sony Open in Hawaii

We have 2 players in common this week: Sticker and Howell.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Sony Open in Hawaii:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
90	15%	15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	10%	10%

Hyundai Tournament of Champions Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Joanthan Byrd | 1 | $1,120,000
2. Geoff Ogilvy | 33 (WD) | $0
3. Adam Scott | 21 | $71,000
4. Ernie Els | 17 | $87,000
5. Hunter Mahan | 25 | $62,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Geoff Ogilvy | 33 (WD) | $0
2. Ernie Els | 17 | $87,000
3. Graeme McDowell | 3 | $412,000
4. Steve Stricker | 4 | $286,500
5. Tim Clark | 17 | $87,000

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,340,000	$872,500	TO
Avg Rank	19.4	14.8	TI
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	DRAW

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was a draw.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 0 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

....are there carry overs? :-)

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

This is the first tournament of the 2011 season for the US PGA Tour. As usual, the tour starts in Hawaii with a tournament that has a limited number of players and no cut. It is the newly named Hyndai Tournament of Champions (formerly know as the SBS Championship and prior to that as the Mercedes-Benz Championship).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

#	Player	CLi
1	Jonathan Byrd	7.70
2	Geoff Ogilvy	8.65
3	Adam Scott	10.15
4	Ernie Els	10.70
5	Hunter Mahan	11.35
6	Zach Johnson	12.40
7	Ben Crane	12.60
8	Jim Furyk	12.65
9	Steve Stricker	12.95
10	Matt Kuchar	13.80
11	Anthony Kim	14.00
12	Dustin Johnson	14.20
13	Cameron Beckman	14.40
14	Charley Hoffman	15.85
15	Camilo Villegas	16.40

Usually it is difficult to pick players during the first couple of tournaments in the season because of the previous 2 month layoff. However, with this tournament being a limited field and has no cut, it makes it a little easier to pick players although it is the first tournament of the season,

For my picks, I like the top 5 in the CLi rankings: Byrd, Ogilvy, Scott, Els, and Mahan.

I was thinking about skipping on Mahan and going with Furyk. The reason I was thinking about Furyk iis because there is not much difference in their CLi rankings although Mahan is ranked 5th and Furyk 8th (difference of 4 spots in the CLi rankings). In addition, Furyk tends to play well in Hawaii. He has a house in the state of Hawaii, which basically makes him a local boy; local boys tend to play well in their tournaments. But I am going to trust the CLi this week and pick Mahan over Furyk.

Below are my 5 picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions :

#	Player	CLi
1	Jonathan Byrd	7.70
2	Geoff Ogilvy	8.65
3	Adam Scott	10.15
4	Ernie Els	10.70
5	Hunter Mahan	11.35

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Geoff Ogilvy
2. Ernie Els
3. Graeme McDowell
4. Steve Stricker
5. Tim Clark

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Hyundai Tournament of Champions

We have 2 players in common this week: Ogilvy and Els.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions :

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
90	15%	15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	10%	10%

That Time of Year Again

Happy new year everyone!!!

It is that time of year again...the start of the US PGA Tour season.  As usual, the tour starts this week in Hawaii with a selective set of players.  So tomorrow I will get back on the horse and start posting my weekly predictions for tournaments again. 

Rob Bolton will remain the competitor of the Tour Outsider...and thus has the label of Tour Insider (even though he is the Power Rankings persons on the US PGA Tour web site).  Bolton won last year; hopefully I will get the upper hand this year.  If not, at the very least the combination of both of our picks should be rewarding to readers.

Enjoy the year.