Wednesday, June 30, 2010

AT&T National

This week the US PGA Tour heads all the way across the country to play the AT&T National.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T National.


# Player CLi
1 Ben Crane 4.90
2 Jeffrey Overton 5.10
3 Justin Rose 10.90
4 Bryce Molder 11.70
5 Fredrik Jacobson 15.55
6 Cameron Beckman 15.95
7 Pat Perez 17.05
8 Bo Van Pelt 20.45
9 Vijay Singh 21.05
10 Robert Garrigus 21.20
11 Boo Weekley 24.65
12 Chris Riley 26.90
13 Alexander Cejka 27.25
14 Brandt Snedeker 28.20
15 Ryan Moore 28.25

As with last week, I am going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings. Crane, Overton, and Rose all look like good picks for this tournament. They are playing well. Molder and Jacobson are the questions in my mind. However, looking at the details of the results for these two players, the details show that they have a good chance of playing well in this tournament.

Both players played well in the tournament last year...albeit the tournament was played on a different course than this year. Molder placed 4th in last year's tournament and Jacobson played 2nd. Both players have made the cut in the last 4 tournaments they have played in leading up to this tournament. This data makes me feel good to include them in my picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T National:


# Player CLi
1 Ben Crane 4.90
2 Jeffrey Overton 5.10
3 Justin Rose 10.90
4 Bryce Molder 11.70
5 Fredrik Jacobson 15.55


Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Jim Furyk
  2. Ryan Moore
  3. Ben Crane
  4. Ricky Barnes
  5. Fredrik Jacobson
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T National

We have 2 players in common this week: Crane and Jacobson.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T National (note that these settings are different than my normal settings; the reason is because the tournament is being played on a different course than the course they have played in past instances of this tournament):

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 15% 15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
45 15% 15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Monday, June 28, 2010

Travelers Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Travelers Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Justin Rose | 9 | $156,000
  2. Scott Verplank | 2 | $528,000
  3. Bo Van Pelt | 34 | $29,025
  4. Kenny Perry | 74 | $11,400
  5. Boo Weekley | 51 | $14,120
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Scott Verplank | 2 | $528,000
  2. Bo Van Pelt | 34 | $29,025
  3. Hunter Mahan | 129 (MC) | $0
  4. Bubba Watson | 1 | $1,080,000
  5. Justin Rose | 9 | $156,000
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $738,545 $1,793,025 TI
Avg Rank 34.0 35.0 TO
Made Cut 5 4 TO
Outcome -- -- TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 9 wins to the Tour Outsider, 13 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

It would have been nice if Rose could have played well in the final round to carry his 54-hole lead to the clubhouse after the final round. However, Rose struggled during the final round, and placed 9th.

This week is a mirror of the results from last week (the U.S. Open). Even though Bolton had a winner in Watson, I was able to win the tournament because of a better rank average and number of players that made the cut. So the results of this tournament (Travelers Championship) and the U.S. Open last week are a wash between Bolton and I.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Travelers Championship

This week the US PGA Tour heads all the way across the country to play the Travelers Championship in Connecticut.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Travelers Championship.



# Player CLi
1 Justin Rose   9.35
2 Scott Verplank  9.35
3 Bo Van Pelt  11.50
4 Kenny Perry  13.05
5 Boo Weekley  14.35
6 Corey Pavin  15.55
7 Stewart Cink  15.85
8 Jay Williamson  18.30
9 David Toms  19.50
10 Brian Davis  22.65
11 Kris Blanks  25.35
12 Ricky Barnes  29.40
13 Johnson Wagner  30.40
14 Bryce Molder  32.00
15 Billy Mayfair  32.60

I am going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings to make it easy on myself since I am late in posting this week's picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the Travelers Championship:


# Player CLI
1 Justin Rose   9.35
2 Scott Verplank  9.35
3 Bo Van Pelt  11.50
4 Kenny Perry  13.05
5 Boo Weekley  14.35


Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Scott Verplank
  2. Bo Van Pelt
  3. Hunter Mahan
  4. Bubba Watson
  5. Justin Rose
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Travelers Championship

We have 3 players in common this week: Verplank, Van Pelt, and Rose.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Travelers Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

U.S. Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the U.S. Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Phil Mickelson | 3 | $303,119
  2. Lee Westwood | 16 | $108,458
  3. Rory McIlroy | 109 (MC) | $0
  4. Tiger Woods | 3 | $303,119
  5. Retief Goosen | 58 | $18,368
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Lee Westwood | 16 | $108,458
  2. Jim Furyk | 16 | $108,458
  3. Phil Mickelson | 3 | $303,119
  4. Luke Donald | 47 | $23,385
  5. K.J. Choi | 47 | $23,385
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $733,064 $566,805 TO
Avg Rank 37.8 25.8 TI
Made Cut 4 5 TI
Outcome -- -- TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 8 wins to the Tour Outsider, 13 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

U.S. Open

This week the US PGA Tour, and all of the other major tours around the world, converge on the Monterrey Peninsula in California to play the 2nd major of the year, the U.S. Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the U.S. Open.


# Player CLi
1 Phil Mickelson   7.95
2 Ricky Barnes  12.95
3 Lee Westwood  13.90
4 Rory McIlroy  18.00
5 Heath Slocum  18.60
6 Tiger Woods  20.80
7 Retief Goosen  22.05
8 Jim Furyk  23.45
9 Lucas Glover  26.30
10 Francesco Molinari  26.90
11 Luke Donald  29.10
12 Tim Clark  31.55
13 Stewart Cink  32.50
14 Bo Van Pelt  32.75
15 Hunter Mahan  33.65

Mickelson has the best shot at playing well this week at Pebble Beach based upon the configuration of my CLi calculation. He is the only player in the CLi rankings with a CLi less than 10. So he will be my first pick this week. Hopefully that means he also has the confidence to play well this week on a tough course.

As for my next 4 picks, it is interesting that that Barnes as the next best player. He is a California native and does tend to enjoy playing in California. As well, he has been playing well the last couple of months. However, he is sparatic and U.S. Open courses need straight and consistent play. So I am going to pass on Barnes.

I will pick Westwood as he is playing well. He won this past week ni Memphis and he has a strong mental game; am not sure he has a chance of winning, but does have a good chance of placing in the top 15.

My third pick will be the young McIlroy. He has the spirit and the energy to last 4 rounds at Pebble Beach. If he can stay positive through out the tournament and make some putts, he has a good chance of winning this year.

I am going to skip Slocum as I don't think he has the strength to play Pebble Beach with its long rough. He does hit it in the fairway more than a lot of the players. This puts him in company of Furyk. However, at this point in his career, he doesn't necessarily have the short game and fight to push through to see every putt that needs to be made to be made (does that make sense?).

For my 4th and 5th picks, I am going to go with Woods and Goosen. Woods is an unknown with having not played much and his mental side of things hurting his game. But one can never count him out at a major until he falters enough times. Goosen has won this event a couple of times, and is playing well leading up to this tournament. Hopefully he can make some putts and play well 4 days in a row.

This leaves out Furyk in my picks. Furky is a great U.S. Open player, and it was hard to not pick him.

Below are my 5 picks for the U.S. Open:

# Player CLI
1 Phil Mickelson   7.95
2 Lee Westwood  13.90
3 Rory McIlroy  18.00
4 Tiger Woods  20.80
5 Retief Goosen  22.05


Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Lee Westwood
  2. Jim Furyk
  3. Phil Mickelson
  4. Luke Donald
  5. K.J. Choi
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: U.S. Open

We have 2 players in common this week: Mickelson and Westwood.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the U.S. Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
6 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
60 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
6 20% 20%

St. Jude Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the St. Jude Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Brian Gay | 15 | $76,272
  2. Zach Johnson | 12 | $117,600
  3. Heath Slocum | 6 | $201,600
  4. Ben Crane | 12 | $117,600
  5. David Toms | 29 | $34,090
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Ben Crane | 12 | $117,600
  2. Zach Johnson | 12 | $117,600
  3. Robert Allenby | 151 (WD) | $0
  4. Heath Slocum | 6 | $201,600
  5. Paul Goydos | 151 (WD) | $0
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $547,162 $436,800 TO
Avg Rank 14.8 66.4 TO
Made Cut 5 3 TO
Outcome -- -- TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 8 wins to the Tour Outsider, 12 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

St. Jude Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is planning for the U.S. Open by playing a tournament in Tennessee: St. Jude Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the St. Jude Classic.



# Player CLi
1 Brian Gay  4.35
2 Zach Johnson  4.80
3 Heath Slocum  8.20
4 Ben Crane  8.75
5 David Toms  9.95
6 Aron Price  12.45
7 Fredrik Jacobson  14.80
8 Tom Pernice Jr  20.20
9 Robert Allenby  21.40
10 Justin Leonard  26.00
11 Boo Weekley  27.55
12 D.A. Points  27.95
13 Camilo Villegas  29.35
14 Chris Riley  31.35
15 Stephen Ames  31.75

This week the CLi has 5 players with a CLi less than 10. This is a good sign that the CLi "thinks" it can determine players that have the best chance of playing well based upon my settings of the CLi for this tournament. From my experience, a CLi less than 10 is a good threshold to use for this determination of the usefulness of the CLi. Therefore, I am going to stick with the CLi and pick the top 5 players in the list: Gay, Johnson, Slocum, Crane, and Toms.

Below are my 5 picks for the St. Jude Classic:


# Player CLi
1 Brian Gay  4.35
2 Zach Johnson  4.80
3 Heath Slocum  8.20
4 Ben Crane  8.75
5 David Toms  9.95


Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Ben Crane
  2. Zach Johnson
  3. Robert Allenby
  4. Heath Slocum
  5. Paul Goydos
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: St. Jude Classic

We have 3 players in common this week: Crane, Johnson, and Slocum.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the St. Jude Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Memorial Tournament Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Memorial Tournament to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Kenny Perry | 17 | $93,000
  2. Zach Johnson | 47 | $15,864
  3. Fredrik Jacobson | 50 | $14,839
  4. Matt Kuchar | 8 | $180,000
  5. Tim Clark | 68 | $12,180
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Ernie Els | 72 (MC) | $0
  2. Phil Mickelson | 5 | $219,000
  3. Robert Allenby | 80 (MC) | $0
  4. Kenny Perry | 17 | $93,000
  5. Matt Kuchar | 8 | $180,000
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $315,883 $492,000 TI
Avg Rank 38.0 36.4 TI
Made Cut 5 3 TO
Outcome -- -- TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 7 wins to the Tour Outsider, 12 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Memorial Tournament

This week the US PGA Tour is at Jack's home course in Columbus, Ohio this week to play the Memorial Tournament.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Memorial Tournament.


# Player Cli
1 Kenny Perry   12.00
2 Zach Johnson  12.80
3 Fredrik Jacobson  13.15
4 Matt Kuchar  13.20
5 Tim Clark  13.60
6 K.J. Choi  14.95
7 Bo Van Pelt  14.95
8 Phil Mickelson  15.35
9 Jim Furyk  19.90
10 Nick Watney  21.00
11 Adam Scott  21.90
12 Tiger Woods  23.90
13 Geoff Ogilvy  24.75
14 Stewart Cink  25.05
15 Lucas Glover  25.60

Even though no player has a CLi less than 10, this week I am still going to take the easy way out and go with the top 5 players in the CLi ranking.  The interesting note about this is that this is the first time that Tiger Woods has not been in the top portion of the CLi rankings.  So it will be interesting to see how he does this week at Jack's tournament.

Below are my 5 picks for the Memorial Tournament:

#PlayerCli
1Kenny Perry  12.00
2Zach Johnson 12.80
3Fredrik Jacobson 13.15
4Matt Kuchar 13.20
5Tim Clark 13.60


Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Ernie Els
  2. Phil Mickelson
  3. Robert Allenby
  4. Kenny Perry
  5. Matt Kuchar
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Memorial Tournament

We have 2 players in common this week: Perry and Kuchar.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Memorial Tournament:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 10% 10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 15% 15%