Sunday, February 28, 2010

Waste Management Phoenix Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

  1. J.B. Holmes | 43 | $18,270
  2. Matt Kuchar | 43 | $18,279
  3. Phil Mickelson | 24 | $42,525
  4. Kevin Na | 53 | $13,697
  5. Brandt Snedeker | 43 | $18,270

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

  1. Brian Gay | 68 | $12,180
  2. Brandt Snedeker | 43 | $18,270
  3. J.B. Holmes | 43 | $18,270
  4. Zach Johnson | 24 | $42,525
  5. Kevin Na | 53 | $13,697

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $111,032 $104,942 TO
Avg Rank 41.2 46.2 TO
Made Cut 5 5 DRAW
Outcome -- -- TO

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 4 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

I finally got on the board this year. It would have been tough to go down the first 5 tournaments. 1 to 4 sounds a lot better than 0 to 5.

Even though I won, it would have been even nicer if Snedeker had held it together and won the tournament, as he was leading going into the final round. However, he shot 78 in the final round and finished 43rd.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Waste Management Phoenix Open

This week the US PGA Tour is in Phoenix (Scottsdale), Arizona to play the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

# Player CLi
1 J.B. Holmes 5.45
2 Matt Kuchar 7.85
3 Phil Mickelson 9.25
4 Kevin Na 12.60
5 Brandt Snedeker 14.40
6 Ben Crane 14.95
7 Brian Gay 18.35
8 John Rollins 18.55
9 Briny Baird 26.65
10 Bubba Watson 30.05
11 Kevin Sutherland 30.90
12 Robert Allenby 30.95
13 Ryan Palmer 31.65
14 Zach Johnson 32.40
15 Geoff Ogilvy 32.80

I am going to go with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings: Holmes, Kuchar, Mickelson, Na, and Snedeker. The one question mark I have with these five is with Kuchar. He withdrew from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after the 1st round due to illness, which would bring into question how he is feeling this week. However, he did play last week at the Accenture Match Play. This fact mitigates some of my concern about picking him. Not including his WD at the AT&T, this year he has finished 2nd (Bob Hope), a 20th (Northern Trust), and a 17th (Accenture Match Play). As well, he finished 6th in this tournament (the WM Phoenix Open) last year.

Below are my 5 picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

# Player CLi
1 J.B. Holmes 5.45
2 Matt Kuchar 7.85
3 Phil Mickelson 9.25
4 Kevin Na 12.60
5 Brandt Snedeker 14.40

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Brian Gay
  2. Brandt Snedeker
  3. J.B. Holmes
  4. Zach Johnson
  5. Kevin Na

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Waste Management Phoenix Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Snedeker, Holmes, and Na.

So far this year my picks have been doing rather well. However, I have lost the first 4 tournaments to Bolton. Hopefully this week I can turn it around.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Mayakoba Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Mayakoba Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

  1. Steve Elkington | 76 (MC) | $0
  2. John Merrick | 48 | $8,949
  3. Heath Slocum | 13 | $67,500
  4. Charles Howell III | 20 | $43,440
  5. Kevin Stadler | 9 | $100,800

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

  1. K.J. Choi | 20 | $43,440
  2. Heath Slocum | 13 | $67,500
  3. Mark Wilson | 28 | $22,440
  4. Steve Elkington | 76 (MC) | $0
  5. Kevin Stadler | 9 | $100,800

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $220,689 $234,180 TI
Avg Rank 33.2 29.2 TI
Made Cut 4 4 DRAW
Outcome -- -- TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 4 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Accenture Match Play Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Accenture Match Play Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

  1. Rory McIlroy | 17 | $95,000
  2. Steve Stricker | 33 | $45,000
  3. Ian Poulter | 1 | $1,400,000
  4. Luke Donald | 9 | $140,000
  5. Geoff Ogilvy | 17 | $95,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

  1. Lee Westwood | 17 | $95,000
  2. Steve Stricker | 33 | $45,000
  3. Paul Casey | 2 | $850,000
  4. Tim Clark | 9 | $140,000
  5. Ian Poulter | 1 | $1,400,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $1,775,000 $2,530,000 TI
Avg Rank 15.4 12.4 TI
Made Cut 5 5 DRAW
Outcome -- -- TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 3 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Mayakoba Classic

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments: 1) Accenture Match Play Championship (started Wednesday), and 2) the Mayakoba Classic. I posted the entry for the Accenture Match Play Championship on Wednesday. This post is for the Mayakoba Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Mayakoba Classic.

# Player CLi
1 Steve Elkington 7.45
2 John Merrick 13.75
3 Heath Slocum 14.85
4 Charles Howell III 17.05
5 Kevin Stadler 17.95
6 Briny Baird 18.75
7 Mark Wilson 21.65
8 J.P. Hayes 24.15
9 Brendon De Jonge 24.45
10 Joe Ogilvie 26.95
11 Shigeki Maruyama 29.65
12 Chris DiMarco 30.10
13 Boo Weekley 30.75
14 Joe Durant 34.15
15 Jarrod Lyle 35.05

The CLi has been rather good in predicting the results for this tournament in the past. I am going to go with the CLi rankings, and use the top 5. For one, I don't have the time to look into the details of each of the players in the top 15 CLi rankings. And second, in passing, the rankings look rather good.

Below are my 5 picks for the Mayakoba Classic:

# Player CLi
1 Steve Elkington 7.45
2 John Merrick 13.75
3 Heath Slocum 14.85
4 Charles Howell III 17.05
5 Kevin Stadler 17.95

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. K.J. Choi
  2. Heath Slocum
  3. Mark Wilson
  4. Steve Elkington
  5. Kevin Stadler

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Mayakoba Classic

We have 3 players in common this week: Slocum, Elkington, and Stadler.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Mayakoba Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Accenture Match Play Championship

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments, with one of them starting on Wednesday. The Accenture Match Play Championship starts on Wednesday, with the Mayakoba Classic starting on Thursday. Since I am late in posting this week, I will do a brief posting on things for the Accenture tournament in this posting and then will add my picks for the Mayakoba tournament tomorrow in a separate posting.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Accenture Match Play Championship.

# Player CLi
1 Rory McIlroy 24.60
2 Steve Stricker 28.10
3 Ian Poulter 28.70
4 Luke Donald 29.10
5 Geoff Ogilvy 29.70
6 Stewart Cink 30.70
7 Ernie Els 30.70
8 Robert Allenby 31.30
9 Ben Crane 32.10
10 Tim Clark 32.40
11 Sean O'Hair 32.50
12 Dustin Johnson 32.70
13 Padraig Harrington 32.80
14 David Toms 33.10
15 Retief Goosen 33.90

The CLi has a tough time with match play events, as do many calculations and experts. You can see this in the high CLi figures, which implies that the CLi doesn't think there is any real favorite in the tournament. That said, I am still going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings as they look like good picks. McIlroy is the suspect pick, even though he is at the top of the list. He has only played this event once, finishing 5th last year. So it will be interesting to see how the youngster does.

Below are my 5 picks for the Accenture Match Play Championship:

# Player CLi
1 Rory McIlroy 24.60
2 Steve Stricker 28.10
3 Ian Poulter 28.70
4 Luke Donald 29.10
5 Geoff Ogilvy 29.70

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Lee Westwood
  2. Steve Stricker
  3. Paul Casey
  4. Tim Clark
  5. Ian Poulter

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Accenture Match Play Championship

We have 2 players in common this week: Stricker and Poulter.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Accenture Match Play Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 30% 30%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 10% 10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 10% 10%

Monday, February 15, 2010

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Review

It is now time to review the picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

  1. Retief Goosen | 80 (MC) | $0
  2. Mike Wier | 52 | $14,539
  3. Phil Mickelson | 8 | $186,000
  4. Tim Clark | 10 | $137,433
  5. Jim Furyk | 35 | $26,745

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

  1. Retief Goosen | 80 (MC) | $0
  2. Dustin Johnson | 1 | $1,116,000
  3. Brandt Snedeker | 21 | $62,000
  4. Mike Weir | 52 | $14,539
  5. Luke Donald | 16 | $93,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $364,717 $1,285,539 TI
Avg Rank 37.0 34.0 TI
Made Cut 4 4 DRAW
Outcome -- -- TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the Monterrey to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

# Player CLi
1 Retief Goosen 3.35
2 Dustin Johnson 3.70
3 Mike Weir 6.60
4 Phil Mickelson 8.35
5 Tim Clark 9.20
6 Jim Furyk 11.90
7 Matt Kuchar 14.60
8 Rory Sabbatini 19.30
9 Kevin Sutherland 23.30
10 Luke Donald 25.05
11 Vaughn Taylor 25.60
12 Sean O'Hair 27.50
13 Davis Love III 27.85
14 Marc Leishman 28.40
15 Spencer Levin 30.45

This week's CLi ranking has 5 players with a CLi figure less than 10. This should make it easy and more comfortable to pick those players. However, I am going to skip over last year's champion, Dustin Johnson, so I can pick a Jim Furyk who is further down the list (one spot down the list). Johnson won last year at Pebble Beach, and he played well last week at Riveria. However, I am not sure if he can keep that trend up. As well, I like Furyk this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

# Player CLi
1 Retief Goosen 3.35
2 Mike Weir 6.60
3 Phil Mickelson 8.35
4 Tim Clark 9.20
5 Jim Furyk 11.90

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Retief Goosen
  2. Dustin Johnson
  3. Brandt Snedeker
  4. Mike Weir
  5. Luke Donald

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We have 2 players in common this week: Goosen and Weir.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Monday, February 8, 2010

Northern Trust Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Northern Trust Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

  1. Steve Stricker | 1 | $1,152,000
  2. Robert Allenby | 27 | $45,440
  3. Rory Sabbatini | 76 (MC) | $0
  4. Phil Mickelson | 45 | $20,480
  5. Charles Howell III | 108 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

  1. Steve Stricker | 1 | $1,152,000
  2. Phil Mickelson | 45 | $20,480
  3. Robert Allenby | 27 | $45,440
  4. Matt Kuchar | 20 | $66,743
  5. Rory Sabbatini | 76 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $1,217,920 $1,284,663 TI
Avg Rank 51.4 33.8 TI
Made Cut 3 4 TI
Outcome -- -- TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Northern Trust Open

This week the US PGA Tour is just north of Los Angeles in Pacific Palisades to play the Northern Trust Open. The tournament is held at the famous Riveria Country Club.

This week I introduce the Tour Outsider vs Tour Insider again [ hat tip to Mr. Ed Cushing on pushing me on this one ]. So for the remainder of the year I will post my picks against pgatour.com's Rob Bolton. Even though he is not titled "Tour Insider" by pgatour.com, for the sake of this blog, we will call him the Tour Insider.

Bolton posts the Power Rankings for pgatour.com. His Power Rankings usually consist of ten players. So I will take the top 5 players from his list and compare him to my 5 picks for each tournament this year. For readers that are familiar with how I compared results in the past, I look at total winnings by the 5 players picked, the average rank for all 5 players, and the number of players that make the cut in our picks. For each tournament, there will be a win, lose, or draw between the two of us. Hopefully this will add to the value of reading the picks.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Northern Trust Open.

# Player CLi
1 Steve Stricker 2.95
2 Robert Allenby 4.80
3 Rory Sabbatini 5.65
4 Phil Mickelson 6.75
5 Tim Clark 11.60
6 Charles Howell III 15.35
7 K.J. Choi 20.00
8 Bubba Watson 21.45
9 John Rollins 21.55
10 Adam Scott 21.75
11 Jim Furyk 21.80
12 Matt Kuchar 21.80
13 Ernie Els 22.45
14 Angel Cabrera 22.65
15 Carl Pettersson 24.80

Nice. There are 4 players that have CLi figures below 10. That is a good sign that 1) the CLi calculation has enough data to compute a better forecasts, and 2) the are several clear players that have an advantage over the rest of the field. So, from that logic, I will stick with the first 4 players in the CLi rankings: Stricker, Allenby, Sabbatini, and Mickelson.

For my 5th pick, I would normally stick with Tim Clark. Very seldom do I skip over Clark as he is a fighter on the course and plays to the end of the tournament. However, I see a player in the 6th spot of the CLi rankings that has played well at Riveria and is playing well this year leading up to this tournament. That is Charles Howell, III. I am going to pick Howell for my 5th player.

Below are my 5 picks for the Northern Trust Open:

# Player CLi
1 Steve Stricker 2.95
2 Robert Allenby 4.80
3 Rory Sabbatini 5.65
4 Phil Mickelson 6.75
5 Charles Howell III 15.35

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Steve Stricker
  2. Phil Mickelson
  3. Robert Allenby
  4. Matt Kuchar
  5. Rory Sabbatini

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Northern Trust Open

We have 4 players in common this week: Stricker, Mickelson, Allenby, and Sabbatini. So the difference in our picks is Kuchar (Tour Insider) and Howell (Tour Outsider). Play well Howell.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Northern Trust Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%