Sunday, September 30, 2012

Ryder Cup Singles Matches Analysis

Today is the final round of the Ryder Cup.  Team USA has a commanding lead over Team Europe going into the singles matches today, with the score 10-to-6.  It will be difficult for Team Europe to come back from such a deficit.  They will have to win 8 of the 12 singles matches.  To have fun today, I have performed analyses to see if that is possible (at least on paper).

Below, I list out the singles matches and run head-to-head analyses using Fanooz's head-to-head tool for the Ryder Cup.  I compare the each player in a singles match with their opponent base upon four different criteria dating back from January 2008 in official money, medal play tournaments: 1) only majors-total tournament 2) all tournaments-total tournament, 3) all tournaments-first round scores, and 4) all tournaments-final round scores.

Europe USA Only Majors # Results
Donald Watson 50%-50% 16 Tie
Poulter Simpson 50%-50% 6 Tie
McIlroy Bradley 20%-80% 5 USA
Rose Mickelson 24%-76% 17 USA
Lawrie Snedeker 67%-33% 6 Europe
Colsaerts D. Johnson 50%-50% 4 Tie
McDowell Z. Johnson 67%-33% 18 Europe
Garcia Furyk 40%-60% 20 USA
Hanson Dufner 73%-27% 11 Europe
Westwood Kuchar 81%-19% 16 Europe
Kaymer Stricker 35%-65% 20 USA
Molinari Woods 23%-77% 13 USA
Team Europe 4
Team USA 5
Ties 3


Note: The figures in the # column indicates how many tournaments the players both played in (i.e. to be able to compare their results against one another).

When looking only at majors, the head-to-head tool predicts that Europe has an advantage in 4 of the matches, USA has an advantage in 5 of the matches, and that there is no advantage for either side in 3 of the matches.  Europe will want to see those close matches go their way if they are going to have a chance of retaining the Cup.

Europe USA All Tournaments # Results
Donald Watson 63%-37% 61 Europe
Poulter Simpson 51%-49% 41 Europe
McIlroy Bradley 60%-40% 20 Europe
Rose Mickelson 45%-55% 69 USA
Lawrie Snedeker 60%-40% 10 Europe
Colsaerts D. Johnson 44%-56% 9 USA
McDowell Z. Johnson 48%-52% 46 USA
Garcia Furyk 33%-67% 63 USA
Hanson Dufner 54%-46% 24 Europe
Westwood Kuchar 58%-42% 36 Europe
Kaymer Stricker 32%-68% 37 USA
Molinari Woods 38%-62% 26 USA
Team Europe 6
Team USA 6
Ties 0

When looking at all tournaments (both majors and non-major tournaments), the head-to-head tool predicts that Europe has an advantage in 6 of the matches, and USA has an advantage in the other 6 of the matches.

When combining both of the results (from the major only analysis and all the tournaments analysis), USA has a slight edge on paper per the results of the head-to-head tool.  It will be difficult for Europe to pull out a win in this Ryder Cup, as they will need to figure out how to pull out some of the close matches.  For example, if the 3 ties from the majors only analysis go to Europe, that would result in Europe obtaining 7 points.  Then they would only have to win one additional match to keep the cup.

Some additional analyses shows interesting results with Poulter and Westwood.  Poulter and Westwood tend to play better than their opponent in final rounds.  This is an indicator that they play better when there is more riding on the results....like in the Ryder Cup.  We saw that from Poulter yesterday (Saturday) by looking at his eyes (focus) and how he made several putts down the stretch to help his team earn a point in the afternoon play.

These head-to-head analyses for the Ryder Cup are not necessarily comparing apples-to-apples since the Ryder Cup is such a different event than medal play tournaments where players represent themselves, as opposed to their country.  However, it is fun to see how the analyses stacks up to the actual results.

Enjoy watching the singles matches today.   The fans have really turned out for the event, and Chicago has been a great host city this year.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

TOUR Championship Review



It is now time to review the picks for the TOUR Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Sergio Garcia | 15 | $167,200
  2. Tiger Woods | 8 | $248,000
  3. Phil Mickelson | 15 | $167,200
  4. Nick Watney | 28 | $131,200
  5. Ryan Moore | 3 | $468,000
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Tiger Woods | 8 | $248,000
  2. Rory McIlroy | 10 | $205,760
  3. Phil Mickelson | 15 | $167,200
  4. Jim Furyk | 7 | $272,000
  5. Adam Scott | 19 | $156,800
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$1,181,600$1,049,760TO
Avg Rank13.811.8TI
Made Cut55Draw
Outcome----Draw

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was a draw.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 19 wins to the Tour Outsider16 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

After Bolton kick my rear the past two tournaments, I squeaked out a draw in this one -- winning the earnings category by $32,000 and giving Bolton a run for his money in the average rank category.

I am holding a slim lead going into the Fall Finish tournaments.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Ryder Cup

This week is the Ryder Cup.  A wonderful 3-day team event between the USA and Europe over 5 rounds using multiple playing formats.  This year the event is in Chicago at Medinah Country Club.

I won't be making any picks or predictions.  But if you want to have fun with a player head-to-head analysis tool, go to the following link on Fanooz:
You will be able to select multiple players that are playing in the Ryder Cup and see how they have performed against each other in recent tournaments (....going all the way back to year 2000).

For example, if Tiger Woods and Bubba Watson are paired up against Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose, you can select those players and see the results against one another in the tournaments they all played in recently. 

Note: the tool works much better for the final day singles matches where one player from the American team plays against one player from the European team.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

TOUR Championship

....and here we go, with another quick an short post.  This time it is for the TOUR Championship in Atlanta.  The tournament is the finale of the FedEx Playoffs, with only 30 players in the field.

My picks for the tournament are:

Sergio Garica (analysis)
Tiger Woods (analysis)
Phil Mickelson (analysis)
Nick Watney (analysis)
Ryan Moore (analysis)

The Tour Insider (Bolton) picks for the tournament are:

Tiger Woods (analysis)
Rory McIlroy (analysis)
Phil Mickelson (analysis)
Jim Furyk (analysis)
Adam Scott (analysis)

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Woods and Mickelson

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

BMW Championship Review



It is now time to review the picks for the BMW Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Sergio Garcia | 24 | $73,600
  2. Tiger Woods | 4 | $352,000
  3. Tim Clark | 59 | $17,600
  4. Steve Stricker | 26 | $62,800
  5. Keegan Bradley | 59 | $17,600
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Rory McIlroy | 1 | $1,440,000
  2. Dustin Johnson | 6 | $278,000
  3. Tiger Woods | 4 | $352,000
  4. Lee Westwood | 2 | $704,000
  5. Louis Oosthuizen | 16 | $108,600
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$523,600$2,882,600TI
Avg Rank34.45.8TI
Made Cut55Draw
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 19 wins to the Tour Outsider16 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

Wow!!! Another great week for Bolton.  His picked earned more than $2.8m and their average rank was 5.8.  That is awesome.  That is very tough to beat....thus, the reason why I was left in the dust for a 2nd week in a row.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

BMW Championship

Another quick and short post, this time for this week's BMW Championship, which will be held at a new course for this tournament -- French Lick Resort in Indiana.  This tournament is the 3rd tournament of the FedEx Playoffs.

My picks for the tournament are:

Sergio Garica (analysis)
Tiger Woods (analysis)
Tim Clark (analysis)
Steve Stricker (analysis)
Keegan Bradley (analysis)

The Tour Insider (Bolton) picks for the tournament are:

Rory McIlroy (analysis)
Dustin Johnson (analysis)
Tiger Woods (analysis)
Lee Westwood (analysis)
Louis Oosthuizen (analysis)

We have 1 player in common in this tournament: Woods

....another short post, as I continue to get settled in Kalamazoo.

Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship Review



It is now time to review the picks for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Steve Stricker | 13 | $145,600
  2. Jason Dufner | 18 | $116,000
  3. Tiger Woods | 3 | $544,000
  4. Jim Furyk | 13 | $145,600
  5. Luke Donald | 26 | $54,444
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Brandt Snedeker | 6 | $288,000
  2. Luke Donald | 26 | $54,444
  3. Louis Oosthuizen | 2 | $864,000
  4. Jason Dufner | 18 | $116,000
  5. Rory McIlroy | 1 | $1,440,000
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$1,005,644$2,762,444TI
Avg Rank14.610.6TI
Made Cut55Draw
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 19 wins to the Tour Outsider15 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

This was a good tournament for me, as my picks earned more than $1m (without one of them winning the tournament) and had an average rank of 14.6.  Normally, those two figures would win a tournament.  But Bolton had an even better tournament.  He picked the winner (McIlroy) and the 2nd place finisher (Oosthuizen).  In addition, he had another player finish in the top 6 (Snedeker), with his worst place finisher only being 26th (Donald).  Very nice!!