Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Farmer's Insurance Open

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the southern coast of California to play at Torrey Pines. The tournament has a new name, the Farmer's Insurance Open. Buick formerly sponsored the event when it was called the Buick Invitational.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Farmer's Insurance Open.

# Player CLi
1 Ernie Els 5.05
2 Charles Howell III 6.30
3 Robert Allenby 10.50
4 Bill Haas 11.90
5 Nick Watney 12.35
6 Bubba Watson 12.90
7 Brandt Snedeker 13.35
8 Matthew Jones 13.95
9 Lucas Glover 14.35
10 John Rollins 16.15
11 Troy Matteson 19.65
12 Kevin Sutherland 22.30
13 Ryan Palmer 22.50
14 Chad Campbell 22.55
15 Jeff Klauk 24.35

It is good to see Ernie Els on the top of the list this week. It has been a long time since I have seen the CLi rankings have Els at the top of the list. So I will be quick to pick him as my first pick this week. Then I will continue down the list and pick Howell, Allenby, skip over Haas, pick Watney and Bubba Watson.

The younger Haas (Bill is the son of Champions Tour player, Jay Haas) won last week for the first time at the Bob Hope. Being that it was his first win, I think he is going to be distracted this week due to not having won before. The exposure of winning is usually more than what first-time winners think it will be. So I see him putting together a decent tournament, but will have one bad round that will put him at the lower end of the players that make the cut.

As for picking Howell, he plays well at Torrey Pines. He has not had a good couple of years of late. However, he has placed in the top 30 in the last 3 tournament he has played in, with a 5t place at the Sony Open. So I am hoping that he will continue playing well this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

# Player CLi
1 Ernie Els 5.05
2 Charles Howell III 6.30
3 Robert Allenby 10.50
4 Nick Watney 12.35
5 Bubba Watson 12.90

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

I have had several comments from readers saying that they want to have a "competitor" again for this blog....another "Tour Insider". The suggestions that have been made have been good ones, and hopefully I will be able to add the "competition" back into the readings on this blog in the near future. Readers say that the competition, as well as the additional picks from another person, makes this blog more useful.

3 comments:

  1. John,

    No Mickelson in the CLi ranks?

    I will take Mickelson, Els, Allenby, Streelman and Watson.

    Harvey

    ReplyDelete
  2. Harvey, good observation.

    Yes, there is no Mickelson in the top 15 CLi rankings so I am not able to pick him. He is 18th in the rankings with a CLi of 25.75.

    The reason why he is not higher up in my settings for the CLi calculation for this tournament is that there is no data for him this year (i.e. in the past 30 days), and the past 4 tournament he has played in prior to this tournament he didn't play all that spectular. As well, I didn't necessarily put a relatively high weight on the past performances in this tournament. Maybe I should have put a higher weight on past performance.

    - JM

    ReplyDelete
  3. I would tend to agree with your thought about putting a higher weight on past performance.

    I think it's odd that Els ranks #1 on the CLI considering he's only played in this event once. He had a solid top 10 finish in his only try here, but, that doesn't mean much over the course a career as long as his.

    Lefty has won here multiple times and has 4 or 5 other T10's on top of those wins here. Seems a bit unbalanced IMHO.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete