Wednesday, June 27, 2012

AT&T National

This week the US PGA Tour is hosting Tiger Woods' tournament, the AT&T National, which is being played at Congressional Country Club situated just outside of Washington D.C.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T National.

# Player CLi 
1 Tiger Woods 9.00
2 Hunter Mahan 9.95
3 Jim Furyk 11.15
4 John Merrick 13.10
5 Marc Leishman 15.35
6 Bo Van Pelt 19.90
7 Charley Hoffman 21.85
8 J.B. Holmes 23.00
9 Danny Lee 23.05
10 Nick O'Hern 23.15
11 Jeffrey Overton 23.20
12 Pat Perez 26.25
13 Chris Kirk 26.35
14 Bryce Molder 27.35
15 Ryan Moore 29.80


Tiger (analysis) is on the top of the CLi ranking again. It is fitting that it is for the official tournament that he hosts on the U.S. PGA Tour.  He missed the tournament last year. Prior to last year he had finished 46th, 1st, and 6th.  As for his play this year, he won the Memorial Tournament a month ago and Arnie's tournament earlier this year.  In his last event, the U.S. Open, he finished 21st after leading the event after the 2nd round.

Mahan (analysis) has finished in the top-12 in 3 of the last four times he has played this event, with a 2nd place finish in 2009.  Leading up to this tournament he has finished 11th, (Travelers Championship), 38th (U.S. Open), and 19th (Memorial Tournament) in his last 3 outings.

Furyk (analysis) is coming off his "miss at a win" in the U.S. Open two weeks ago where he had the lead with two holes to ago before finishing 4th.  Previous to the U.S. Open, he had finished 13th (Memorial Tournament), 4th (Crowne Plaza Invitational), and 25th (PLAYERS Championship).  He is playing well.

I am going to skip over Merrick (analysis) and Leishman (analysis).  Last week, for the Travelers Championship, the CLi rankings included a large number of players that had played well in the FedEx St,. Jude Classic (played 2 weeks prior to the Travelers Championship).  I didn't bode well with those picks.  Merrick was one of those players who I picked last week that played well in the FedEx St. Jude Classic and didn't fair well.  He is high in the CLi rankings again this week, but I am going to skip him.

A quick glance in the CLi rankings, many of the players in the top 15 are players that played well last week, including last week's winner Leishman and Hoffman (analysis).  So I am hesitant to pick players that played well last week in the Travelers Championship as my picks didn't fair too well for the Travelers Championship when relying solely on the previous event played in by a player. I am going to skip over Leishman and Hoffman because of that reason.

For my final two picks, I am going with Van Pelt (analysis) and Holmes (analysis).  Van Pelt has finished 11th in this event the last two years (albeit, on a different course than Congressional), and hasn't missed a cut since April (in the RBC Heritage).  Holmes finished 5th in this event in 2010, and has finished 37th (Travelers Championship), 19th (FedEx St. Jude), and 13th (Memorial Tournament) in the last three events he has played in.  His length off the tee should be an advantage as long as he can keep it in the fairway.  If he can keep it in the fairway, making a few putts could land him in the top of the field this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T National:

# Player CLi 
1 Tiger Woods 9.00
2 Hunter Mahan 9.95
3 Jim Furyk 11.15
4 Bo Van Pelt 19.90
5 J.B. Holmes 23.00

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Jim Furyk
  2. Hunter Mahan
  3. Tiger Woods
  4. Dustin Johnson
  5. K.J. Choi
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T National

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Furyk, Mahan, and Woods

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T National:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Travelers Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Travelers Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. John Merrick | 71 (MC) | $0
  2. Zach Johnson | 64 | $12,600
  3. Ryan Moore | 47 | $14,585
  4. Chad Campbell | 112 (MC) | $0
  5. Nick O'Hern | 71 (MC) | $0
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Matt Kuchar | 8 | $174,000
  2. Ryan Moore | 47 | $14,585
  3. Padraig Harrington | 11 | $132,000
  4. Bo Van Pelt | 24 | $49,800
  5. Hunter Mahan | 11 | $132,000
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$27,185$502,385TI 
Avg Rank73.020.2TI 
Made Cut25TI
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour  Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 13 wins to the Tour Outsider, 11 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

Good to see Bolton have all 5 of his players make the cut, and 3 players in the top 11. Very nice.

For me, it is a 2nd poor tournament in 3 weeks (not as bad as two weeks ago in FedEx St. Jude Classic, but close). 3 players that missed the cut (albeit, two of them missed the cut by 1 shot -- Merrick and O'Hern). Plus, my fellow native Texan, Campbell, even didn't make the cut. Ugh....

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Travelers Championship

After an exciting week on the west Coast playing the U.S. Open, the US PGA Tour moves to the northeast to play the Travelers Championship in Cornwell, Connecticut.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Travelers Championship.

# Player CLi 
1 John Merrick 15.60
2 Zach Johnson 16.35
3 Ryan Moore 17.05
4 Chad Campbell 17.15
5 Kenny Perry 17.35
6 Nick O'Hern 18.95
7 Bubba Watson 19.65
8 Bo Van Pelt 22.20
9 Padraig Harrington 23.45
10 J.J. Henry 23.80
11 Fredrik Jacobson 24.05
12 Webb Simpson 25.55
13 Vijay Singh  28.40
14 Michael Thompson 28.90
15 Ken Duke 29.10


The CLi figures are high this week, with the lowest CLi figure being 15.60.  This suggests that there is no clear favorites this week, making it difficult to pick players that will finish well.

Even if that is the case, I am still going to go with the top 4 players in the CLi rankings: Merrick (analysis), Johnson (analysis), Moore (analysis), and Campbell (analysis).

Merrick has finished 9th, 34th, and 11th the last three years in this event.  In his last outing, he finished 2nd (at the FedEx St. Jude Classic).

Johnson has only missed the cut once in this event (in 2007), and has finished as low as 3rd (in 2004).  Taking out the missed cut in 2007, his average rank is 21.6 (in 5 instances of the tournament).  He finished 41st last week in the U.S. Open and missed the cut the previous week in the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  However, he won the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial and finished 2nd in the PLAYERS Championship the prior two weeks.

Moore likes this tournament.  He has finished 2nd twice and 4th another time in the 6 times he has played the event.  He has missed only three cuts in the 14 events he has played this year, and has an average ranking of 46.6 in those 14 events.  Better yet, in the last 5 events he has played in, he has two top ten finishes.

Campbell missed the cut last year in this event.  However, in the previous year (2010), he finished 10th.  With a 3rd place finish in his last outing (FedEx St. Jude Classic), he is playing well.

I am going to pass on Kentucky native, Kenny Perry (analysis).  Even though Perry won this event in 2009, the main the reason he is placed well in the CLi rankings is because of his Champion Tour finishes (13th, 7th, and 9th).  The Champion Tour events have a lower level of competition and are played on course setups that are a little easier than the US PGA Tour events.

For my final pick, I am going to select O'Hern (analysis).  He missed the cut in the event last year.  But prior to last year, he had not finished worse than 31st.  His best finish in the event is 3rd (in 2007).  In the most recent event he has played in, he also finished 3rd (in the FedEx St. Jude Classic two weeks ago).

Note: I have picked three players that finished 3rd or better in the FedEx St. Jude Classic (Merrick, Campbell, and O'Hern).  It will be interesting to see if a good finish in the FedEx St. Jude Classic is a good predictor for playing well in the Travelers Championship.

Below are my 5 picks for the Travelers Championship:
# Player CLi 
1 John Merrick 15.60
2 Zach Johnson 16.35
3 Ryan Moore 17.05
4 Chad Campbell 17.15
5 Nick O'Hern 18.95

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Matt Kuchar
  2. Ryan Moore
  3. Padraig Harrington
  4. Bo Van Pelt
  5. Hunter Mahan
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Travelers Championship

We have 1 player in common this tournament: Moore

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Travelers Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

U.S. Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the U.S. Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Lee Westwood | 10 | $163,594
  2. Matt Kuchar | 27 | $68,943
  3. Dustin Johnson | 73 (MC) | $0
  4. Sergio Garcia | 38 | $44,144
  5. Jim Furyk | 4 | $276,841
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Luke Donald | 108 (MC) | $0
  2. Tiger Woods | 21 | $86,348
  3. Lee Westwood | 10 | $163,594
  4. Dustin Johnson | 73 (MC) | $0
  5. Justin Rose | 21 | $86,348
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$553,522$336,290TO
Avg Rank30.446.6TO
Made Cut43TO
Outcome----TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 13 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

After last tournament's poor performance (4 players missed the cut in my picks at the FedEx St. Jude Classic), I am happy with my picks in the U.S. Open. Dustin Johnson won last week at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, but couldn't muster the cut line in the U.S. Open. I picked him this week (as did Bolton), and he didn't cut it. The interesting thing is that I picked Zach (Johnson) in the FedEx St. Jude Classic (as did Bolton) and he did make the cut this week in the U.S. Open. It is funny how things roll. In any event, I was close to picking a winner in the U.S. Open as Furyk was leading the tournament with only 2 holes to go before he fall back to 4th.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

U.S. Open

I am making quick picks this week as I am scrambling through different activities.  My picks for the U.S. Open, which is being held at the Olympic Club in San Francisco, are:
  1. Lee Westwood
  2. Matt Kuchar
  3. Dustin Johnson
  4. Sergio Garcia
  5. Jim Furyk
Bolton's (Tour Insider) picks are:
  1. Luke Donald
  2. Tiger Woods
  3. Lee Westwood
  4. Dustin Johnson
  5. Justin Rose
Link to Bolton's Power Rankings for the U.S. Open.

[ I will update this posting later, and before the start of the tournament on Thursday.  I just wanted to get something posted today -- Tuesday ]

Monday, June 11, 2012

FedEx St. Jude Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the FedEd St. Jude Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Zach Johnson | 90 (MC) | $0
  2. John Rollins | 125 (MC) | $0
  3. David Toms | 135 (MC) | $0
  4. Bob Estes | 34 | $29,540
  5. Brain Gay | 119 (MC) | $0
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Zach Johnson | 90 (MC) | $0
  2. Graeme McDowell | 125 (MC) | $0
  3. Martin Laird | 24 | $49,280
  4. Charles Howell III | 27 | $38,080
  5. David Toms | 135 (MC) | $0
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$29,540$87,360TI
Avg Rank100.280.2TI 
Made Cut12TI
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour  Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 12 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

The "other" Johnson won (i.e. Dustin won, when both Bolton and I picked Zach to play well). Both Bolton and I only got the last name correct, rather than getting both the first and last name correct. :-)

Other than that, my picks were really bad (4 players missed the cut). And really, Bolton's picks were not that much better as he had 3 players miss the cut. Overall, for our 10 picks, 7 players missed the cut (70%). My average rank was over a 100 (100.6). His average rank was 80.2. Ouch!!!

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

FedEx St. Jude Classic

I am making quick picks this week as I am traveling again (on the road, driving to Tejas).  My picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic are:
  1. Zach Johnson
  2. John Rollins
  3. David Toms
  4. Bob Estes
  5. Brain Gay
Bolton's (Tour Insider) picks are:
  1. Zach Johnson
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Martin Laird
  4. Charles Howell II
  5. David Toms