Barclays Classic

This week the US PGA Tour begins it's playoff season beginning in New York with the Barclays Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Barclays Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Jason Bohn	15.40
2	Steve Stricker	21.40
3	Sergio Garcia	22.75
4	Hunter Mahan	31.05
5	Ernie Els	31.50
6	Ryan Moore	31.50
7	Tim Herron	31.85
8	Bill Haas	32.10
9	Padraig Harrington	32.45
10	Justin Rose	35.35
11	Zach Johnson	35.65
12	Jerry Kelly	36.05
13	John Senden	36.05
14	Fred Couples	36.10
15	John Rollins	37.30

With the Barclays playing on a different course for the first time, it is difficult to see how past performance in this tournament will help the players. As you will see in the CLi configuration at the end of this posting, I have accounted for that by lowering the weight of the importance for past results in this tournament. I didn't lower it to 0%, as I still think there is some residual left over with the tournament being part of the playoffs and player's mental as such. So have kept a 30% (15% + 15%) weight on the past results for the tournament in place. That said, the CLi results above reflect that configuration. You will see that the CLi figures are high. This means the CLi is not able to determine a clear cut group of favorite players to play well.

As for my picks, I am going to skip around a little and not stick with the top 5 players. My 5 picks are Bohn, Garcia, Els, Harrington, and Johnson. Garcia, Els, Harrington and Johnson are safety picks. Bohn is the suspect pick. However, the CLi showed him on the top of the list and his CLi is 6 points lower than the 2nd player in the list. He did play well at the Wyndham last week. So I decided to take a chance on him this week.

As for Els, if he keeps hitting it the way he has been of late, it will be up to his putter to make the difference.

Below are my 5 picks for the Barclays Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Jason Bohn	15.40
2	Sergio Garcia	22.75
3	Ernie Els	31.50
4	Padraig Harrington	32.45
5	Zach Johnson	35.65

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Barclays Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	15%	15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	15%	15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Wyndham Championship

This week the US PGA Tour is playing in the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Wyndham Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Michael Letzig	6.90
2	Martin Laird	8.20
3	Jason Bohn	25.05
4	Joe Ogilvie	25.15
5	Jonathan Byrd	27.85
6	Charles Warren	31.35
7	Kevin Streelman	31.50
8	Jason Gore	32.90
9	Tim Petrovic	33.60
10	J.J. Henry	34.35
11	Jason Dufner	34.55
12	Scott McCarron	35.05
13	Ryan Moore	35.20
14	John Senden	36.20
15	Brandt Snedeker	37.80

The first two players in the CLi rankings, Letzig and Laird, do not seem like obvious picks. However, they do have a CLi figures below 10. So it seems worth my while to include them in my picks.

After Letzig and Laird, the CLi figures jump to 25 and above. This means that the next 3 picks are up in the air for me. So I cam going to scan through the next 13 players in the list and pick Ogilvie, Byrd, and Henry.

Below are my 5 picks for the Wyndham Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Michael Letzig	6.90
2	Martin Laird	8.20
3	Joe Ogilvie	25.15
4	Jonathan Byrd	27.85
5	J.J. Henry	34.35

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Wyndham Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

PGA Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the PGA Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 2 | $810,000
• 2 Retief Goosen | 51 | $16,260
• 3 Steve Stricker | 109 (MC) | $0
• 4 David Toms | 36 | $31,736
• 5 Stewart Cink | 67 | $14,050

Here are the results for Paul's picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 2 | $810,000
• 2 Lee Westwood | 3 | $435,000
• 3 Padraig Harrington | 10 | $150,633
• 4 Geoff Ogilvy | 43 | $21,113
• 5 Retief Goosen | 51 | $16,260

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Paul Ginn	Winner
Total Earnings	$872,046	$1,433,006	Paul
Avg Rank	53.0	21.8	Paul
Made Cut	4	5	Paul
Outcome	--	--	Paul

The Total Earnings category was won by Paul.

The Avg Rank category was won by Paul.

The Made Cut category was won by Paul.

This tournament overall was won by Paul.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and Paul is 5 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to Paul, and 0 draws.

This marks the end of the competition between Paul and I. It looks like I got the better of Paul during this competition, having won 5 of the 7 tournaments that we made picks for. On a positive note for Paul, the one of the two wins that Paul had did include a major (the PGA Championship).

PGA Championship

This week the US PGA Tour is playing it's 4th and final major of the year, the US PGA Championship. The tournament is being held in Minnesota at Hazeltine, which is where Rich Beem won the event in 2002.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the US PGA Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.00
2	Retief Goosen	15.10
3	Steve Stricker	15.20
4	David Toms	17.00
5	Brandt Snedeker	18.00
6	Bo Van Pelt	20.00
7	Phil Mickelson	20.30
8	Stewart Cink	20.50
9	John Senden	22.30
10	Kenny Perry	23.70
11	Woody Austin	27.30
12	Nathan Green	28.80
13	Lucas Glover	29.70
14	Hunter Mahan	30.80
15	Jim Furyk	31.10

I am going to go with the first 4 players in the CLi rankings: Woods, Goosen, Stricker, and Toms. Then I am going to skip down the 8th player and pick Cink. He played well at Hazeltine in 2002 and is playing well this summer, having won the British Open.

Note: It is hard to pass over Mickelson. It was a choice between Toms and Mickelson. I decided to take a chance on Toms to see if he can rekindle his 2001 win at the US PGA Championship.

Below are my 5 picks for the US PGA Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.00
2	Retief Goosen	15.10
3	Steve Stricker	15.20
4	David Toms	17.00
5	Stewart Cink	20.50

Below are Paul Ginn's 5 picks for the US PGA Championship:

#	Player
1	Tiger Woods
2	Lee Westwood
3	Padraig Harrington
4	Geoff Ogilvy
5	Retief Goosen

In this tournament, we have two players in common: Woods and Goosen.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the US PGA Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
7	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
60	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
6	20%	20%

Bridgestone Invitational Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Bridgestone Invitational to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 1 | $1,400,00
• 2 Lee Westwood | 9 | $160,000
• 3 Stewart Cink | 6 | $214,333
• 4 Retief Goosen | 29 | $67,000
• 5 Luke Donald | 45 | $51,500

Here are the results for Paul's picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 1 | $1,400,000
• 2 Lee Westwood | 9 | $160,000
• 3 Rory McIlory | 68 | $39,250
• 4 Kenny Perry | 11 | $112,500
• 5 Paul Casey | 80 (WD) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Paul Ginn	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,892833	$1,711,750	TI
Avg Rank	18.0	33.8	TI
Made Cut	5	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and Paul is 5 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to Paul, and 0 draws.

Legends Reno-Tahoe Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Legends Reno-Tahoe Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

• 1 John Rollins | 1 | $540,000
• 2 J.J. Henry | 9 | $75,000
• 3 Aaron Baddeley | 90 (MC) | $0
• 4 Vaughn Taylor | 26 | $20,850
• 5 Steve Flesch | 34 | $14,829

Here are the results for Paul's picks.

• 1 Greg Chalmers | 90 (MC) | $0
• 2 James Nitties | 26 | $20,850
• 3 Charlie Wi | 82 (MC) | $0
• 4 J.J. Henry | 9 | $75,000
• 5 Steve Elkington | 22 | $30,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Paul Ginn	Winner
Total Earnings	$650,679	$125,850	TI
Avg Rank	32.0	45.8	TI
Made Cut	4	3	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and Paul is 4 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to Paul, and 0 draws.

Bridgestone Invitational

The second tournament for the week for the US PGA Tour is the Bridgestone Invitational. The tournament is part of the World Golf Championship (aka: the elite US PGA Tour events). Only 80 players are in the field and there is no cut.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Bridgestone Invitational.

#	Player	Cli
1	Tiger Woods	1.25
2	Lee Westwood	8.30
3	Stewart Cink	11.10
4	Zach Johnson	13.80
5	Davis Love III	13.95
6	Lucas Glover	14.35
7	Hunter Mahan	15.20
8	Retief Goosen	15.95
9	Jim Furyk	16.95
10	Anthony Kim	16.95
11	Luke Donald	17.20
12	Kenny Perry	17.90
13	David Toms	18.60
14	Vijay Singh	19.10
15	Scott Verplank	20.10

I am going to go with the first 3 players in the CLi rankings: Woods, Westwood, and Cink. Then I am going to skip down the 8th player and pick Goosen. Then I will skip down to the 11th player and pick Donald.

Of note, the 7th player to the 15th player (the 2nd half of the top 15 player in the CLi rankings) have CLi figures with 5 points. So it is hard to distinguish between which of these players will play well in this tournament. Thus I needed to think through these players to pick Goosen and Donald.

Below are my 5 picks for the Bridgestone Invitational:

#	Player	Cli
1	Tiger Woods	1.25
2	Lee Westwood	8.30
3	Stewart Cink	11.10
4	Retief Goosen	15.95
5	Luke Donald	17.20

Below are Paul Ginn's 5 picks for the Bridgestone Invitational:

#	Player
1	Tiger Woods
2	Lee Westwood
3	Rory McIlroy
4	Kenny Perry
5	Paul Casey

In this tournament, we have two player in common: Woods and Westwood.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Bridgestone Invitational:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Legends Reno-Tahoe Open

The US PGA Tour has two tournaments this week. One of them, the Bridgestone Invitational, is part of the World Golf Championship (aka: the elite US PGA Tour events). The other one is the Legends Reno-Taheo Open. This post is for the Legends Reno-Tahoe Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Legends Reno-Tahoe Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	John Rollins	7.85
2	J.J. Henry	8.05
3	Aaron Baddeley	8.25
4	Vaughn Taylor	10.45
5	Martin Laird	10.70
6	Steve Flesch	11.95
7	Michael Allen	16.90
8	Spencer Levin	17.45
9	Daniel Chopra	17.80
10	Jason Gore	18.50
11	Brendon De Jonge	19.00
12	Scott McCarron	19.20
13	Steve Elkington	19.75
14	Harrison Frazar	20.20
15	Jonathan Byrd	20.70

I am going to go with the first 4 players in the CLi rankings: Rollins, Henry, Baddeley, and Taylor. Then I am going to skip over Laird. Then I am going to pick Flesch to round out my 5 picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the Legends Reno-Tahoe Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	John Rollins	7.85
2	J.J. Henry	8.05
3	Aaron Baddeley	8.25
4	Vaughn Taylor	10.45
5	Steve Flesch	11.95

Below are Paul Ginn's 5 picks for the Legends Reno-Tahoe Open:

#	Player
1	Greg Chalmers
2	James Nitties
3	Charlie Wi
4	J.J. Henry
5	Steve Elkington

This week we have one player in common: J.J. Henry.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Legends Reno-Tahoe Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Buick Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Buick Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 1 | $918,000
• 2 Woody Austin | 8 | $132,600
• 3 Jim Furyk | 25 | $41,650
• 4 Brandt Snedeker | 99 (MC) | $0
• 5 Kevin Na | 46 | $13,872

Here are the results for Paul's picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 1 | $918,000
• 2 Jim Furyk | 25 | $41,650
• 3 Woody Austin | 8 | $132,600
• 4 Brian Gay | 37 | $20,910
• 5 Rod Pampling | 73 (MC) | $0

This week we both had a winner in Woods --- he was a no-brainer pick.

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Paul Ginn	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,106,122	$1,113,160	Paul
Avg Rank	35.8	28.8	Paul
Made Cut	4	4	Draw
Outcome	--	--	Paul

The Total Earnings category was won by Paul.

The Avg Rank category was won by Paul.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Paul.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and Paul is 3 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to Paul, and 0 draws.