Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Farmer's Insurance Open

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the southern coast of California to play at Torrey Pines. The tournament has a new name, the Farmer's Insurance Open. Buick formerly sponsored the event when it was called the Buick Invitational.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Farmer's Insurance Open.

# Player CLi
1 Ernie Els 5.05
2 Charles Howell III 6.30
3 Robert Allenby 10.50
4 Bill Haas 11.90
5 Nick Watney 12.35
6 Bubba Watson 12.90
7 Brandt Snedeker 13.35
8 Matthew Jones 13.95
9 Lucas Glover 14.35
10 John Rollins 16.15
11 Troy Matteson 19.65
12 Kevin Sutherland 22.30
13 Ryan Palmer 22.50
14 Chad Campbell 22.55
15 Jeff Klauk 24.35

It is good to see Ernie Els on the top of the list this week. It has been a long time since I have seen the CLi rankings have Els at the top of the list. So I will be quick to pick him as my first pick this week. Then I will continue down the list and pick Howell, Allenby, skip over Haas, pick Watney and Bubba Watson.

The younger Haas (Bill is the son of Champions Tour player, Jay Haas) won last week for the first time at the Bob Hope. Being that it was his first win, I think he is going to be distracted this week due to not having won before. The exposure of winning is usually more than what first-time winners think it will be. So I see him putting together a decent tournament, but will have one bad round that will put him at the lower end of the players that make the cut.

As for picking Howell, he plays well at Torrey Pines. He has not had a good couple of years of late. However, he has placed in the top 30 in the last 3 tournament he has played in, with a 5t place at the Sony Open. So I am hoping that he will continue playing well this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

# Player CLi
1 Ernie Els 5.05
2 Charles Howell III 6.30
3 Robert Allenby 10.50
4 Nick Watney 12.35
5 Bubba Watson 12.90

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

I have had several comments from readers saying that they want to have a "competitor" again for this blog....another "Tour Insider". The suggestions that have been made have been good ones, and hopefully I will be able to add the "competition" back into the readings on this blog in the near future. Readers say that the competition, as well as the additional picks from another person, makes this blog more useful.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Bob Hope Classic

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the mainland from Hawaii to play the Bob Hope Classic in California.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Bob Hope Classic.

# Player CLi
1 Tim Clark 5.20
2 Chad Campbell 8.85
3 Pat Perez 10.50
4 Webb Simpson 19.40
5 Ryan Moore 19.70
6 Ryan Palmer 20.00
7 Bill Lunde 20.40
8 Justin Leonard 22.00
9 Scott Verplank 22.70
10 Charley Hoffman 24.15
11 Martin Laird 24.40
12 Scott Piercy 24.65
13 Vaughn Taylor 25.45
14 Joe Ogilvie 25.50
15 John Merrick 27.10

I am going to stick with the top 3 in the CLi rankings: Clark, Campbell, and Perez. Then I am going to skip over Webb Simpson as he is a little green and I don't know if he will consistently hold up this week. He has played well in this tournament, but I don't know how he will continue to play at this tournament (hmmmm....that is with most things in the future). Then I am going to pick Moore and last week's winner, Ryan Palmer.

Down the list in the CLi rankings, there are several players that also look good which I didn't pick. For example, Justin Leonard and Scott Verplank. However, I will stick with the 5 players that I selected

Below are my 5 picks for the Bob Hope Classic:

# Player CLi
1 Tim Clark 5.20
2 Chad Campbell 8.85
3 Pat Perez 10.50
4 Ryan Moore 19.70
5 Ryan Palmer 20.00

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Bob Hope Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Sony Open in Hawaii

This week the US PGA Tour stays in Hawaii to play the second tournament of the 2010 season: the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Even though this is the second tournament of the season, it is the first full field tournament. Players should be "moving and grooving" and itching to play well so they get off to a good start for the season.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Sony Open.

# Player Cli
1 Rory Sabbatini 5.80
2 Steve Stricker 9.55
3 Zach Johnson 9.80
4 Troy Matteson 14.10
5 Stewart Cink 19.95
6 Stephen Ames 20.40
7 Y.E. Yang 20.80
8 Tim Clark 21.20
9 George McNeill 21.75
10 Chad Campbell 23.20
11 Pat Perez 24.10
12 Luke Donald 26.00
13 Ernie Els 27.20
14 Jeff Klauk 27.80
15 Shigeki Maruyama 28.60

I am going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings this week: Sabbatini, Stricker, Johnson, Matteson, and Cink. Out of these 5, Matteson is my questionable player in terms of fans knowing him. However, he has played 31st or better in the last 4 Sony Opens, with an 8th place finish in 2008. Of the 16 rounds he has played in this tournament, he has shot in the 60s 11 times, with the his highest score being 72. So he plays well and consistent in this tournament.

I am solely relying on intelligence of the CLi. Let's hope that is a good strategy this week. Players should at least be enjoying the warm weather when it is still rather cold in many other players in the northern hemisphere.

Below are my 5 picks for the Sony Open:

# Player Cli
1 Rory Sabbatini 5.80
2 Steve Stricker 9.55
3 Zach Johnson 9.80
4 Troy Matteson 14.10
5 Stewart Cink 19.95

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Sony Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
7 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

SBS Championship

Ok, I am now back to try to post on a regular basis my picks each week using the Golf CLi. Until I find a person in the media to compete with, I will just post my picks.

This week is the beginning of the 2010 season for the US PGA Tour, with the tournament being the SBS Championship. This tournament has changed its name this year with the title sponsor change. In the past this tournament has been called the Mercedes-Benz Championship since Mercedes-Benz had sponsored the event. However, this year SBS Technologies has become the title sponsor for the tournament and thus has earned the right to change the name of the tournament.

The first tournament, as is normally the case on the US PGA Tour, takes place in Hawaii with a limited field tournament. Only players that won an official money event in the 2009 season are eligible to play in this tournament. Currently the field consists of 28 players.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the SBS Championship.

Player CLi
1 Stephen Ames 4.20
2 Troy Matteson 4.90
3 Nick Watney 5.20
4 Steve Stricker 5.50
5 Angel Cabrera 7.60
6 Lucas Glover 7.80
7 Zach Johnson 8.50
8 Kenny Perry 9.50
9 Retief Goosen 10.10
10 Dustin Johnson 10.10
11 Matt Kuchar 12.10
12 Stewart Cink 12.40
13 Sean O'Hair 13.30
14 Martin Laird 13.90
15 Rory Sabbatini 13.90

It is difficult to pick for a tournament that is early in the season, especially the first tournament of the season since we don't have much knowledge of how the players worked duriung the off season. As well, with this being a limited field tournament and with the tournament taking place in such a nice place as Hawaii (i.e. a vacation spot), one doesn't know if the player is going to focus on winning or just go through the motions during this tournament. However, in another sense, since the tournament is a limited field there are less player factors involved because there are fewer players to pick from.

This week I am going to go with Ames, Watney, Stricker, Johnson, and Perry. I tried to pick players that I feel are focused on winning this week and who will not play around during the tournament. Ames is the caveat in this pick, as he might not be focused. However, he is a favorite based upon the CLi so I have stuck with him in my picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the SBS Championship:

Player CLi
1 Stephen Ames 4.20
2 Nick Watney 5.20
3 Steve Stricker 5.50
4 Zach Johnson 8.50
5 Kenny Perry 9.50

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the SBS Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 20% 20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 0% 0%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 30% 30%