Tuesday, June 28, 2011

AT&T National

This week the US PGA Tour is playing the AT&T National Championship (even though Tiger is not playing this week, he is the host).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T National.

# Player CLi 
1 Ryan Moore  9.9
2 Carl Pettersson  12.1
3 Bo Van Pelt  13.4
4 Hunter Mahan  13.7
5 Bryce Molder  13.8
6 Kevin Streelman  16.7
7 John Merrick  17.2
8 Nick Watney  20.3
9 Webb Simpson  22.3
10 Rod Pampling  22.9
11 Ben Curtis  23.9
12 J.B. Holmes  24.7
13 Charlie Wi  27.3
14 Ryuji Imada  29.4
15 Andres Romero  30.3

This week I am traveling, so I am going to make my picks simple....am going with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings: Moore (analysis), Pettersson (analysis), Van Pelt (analysis), Mahan (analysis), and Molder (analysis).

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T National :

# Player CLi 
1 Ryan Moore  9.9
2 Carl Pettersson  12.1
3 Bo Van Pelt  13.4
4 Hunter Mahan  13.7
5 Bryce Molder  13.8

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Ryan Moore
  2. J.B. Holmes
  3. Webb Simpson
  4. Nick Watney
  5. Bo Van Pelt
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T National

We have 2 players in common this week: Moore and Van Pelt.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T National:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 20% 20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 10% 10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Travelers Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Travelers Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Hunter Mahan | 43| $18,840
  2. Bo Van Pelt | 13 | $112,500
  3. David Toms | 17 | $78,514
  4. Paul Goydos | 109 (MC) | $0
  5. Zach Johnson | 24 | $46,425
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Hunter Mahan | 43 | $18,840
  2. Webb Simpson | 13 | $112,500
  3. Brandt Snedeker | 24 | $46,425
  4. Zach Johnson | 24 | $46,425
  5. Ryan Moore | 2 | $528,000
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$256,279$752,190TI
Avg Rank41.221.2TI
Made Cut45TI
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 6 wins to the Tour Outsider, 18 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

Bolton did very well this week. All his players made the cut, he had a 2nd place finish, and the worst finish was 43rd -- that will lead to a win in many cases, including this tournament.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Travelers Championship

This week the US PGA Tour winds down from the energy generated at the U.S. Open last week in D.C. to play the Travelers Championship (and since I am late in posting this entry, I am doing the same -- winding down...)

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Travelers Championship.

# Player CLi 
1 Hunter Mahan  6.20
2 Bo Van Pelt  9.25
3 David Toms  17.55
4 Paul Goydos  18.70
5 Kevin Streelman  22.40
6 Zach Johnson  24.40
7 Michael Allen  25.25
8 Ben Curtis  25.55
9 Heath Slocum  27.80
10 Webb Simpson  30.00
11 Spencer Levin  33.00
12 Kris Blanks  33.85
13 Carl Pettersson  34.20
14 Joe Ogilvie  35.75
15 Boo Weekley  36.45

I am going to go with the top 4 players in the CLi ranking: Mahan (analysis), Van Pelt (analysis), Toms (analysis), and Goydos (analysis).

Then I will skip one spot to pick the 6th player, Johnson (analysis).

Below are my 5 picks for the Travelers Championship :

# Player CLi 
1 Hunter Mahan  6.20
2 Bo Van Pelt  9.25
3 David Toms  17.55
4 Paul Goydos  18.70
5 Zach Johnson  24.40

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Hunter Mahan
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Brandt Snedeker
  4. Zach Johnson
  5. Ryan Moore
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Travelers Championship

We have 2 players in common this week: Mahan and Johnson.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Travelers Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

U.S. Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the U.S. Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Lee Westwood | 3 | $364,241
  2. Steve Stricker | 19 | $105,905
  3. Hunter Mahan | 72 (MC) | $0
  4. David Toms | 95 (MC) | $0
  5. Matt Kuchar | 14 | $129,517
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Lee Westwood | 3 | $364,241
  2. Phil Mickelson | 53 | $21,792
  3. Dustin Johnson | 23 | $76,455
  4. Luke Donald | 46 | $31,264
  5. Steve Stricker | 19 | $105,905
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$599,663$599,657TO
Avg Rank40.628.8TI
Made Cut35TI
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 6 wins to the Tour Outsider, 17 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

The total earnings category was the closest it has every been for when we have had players place differently. I squeaked out that category by a total of $6. However, that didn't afford me a win in the tournament, as I proceeded to have 2 players miss the cut. Bolton did a wonderful job in having all 5 of his players make the cut. That is a difficult thing to do for the U.S. Open.

I am getting close to being stymied this year, as I am now down 11 tournaments and there are 18 tournaments left in the season.  ...and it is early in the season.  Ouch.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

U.S. Open

This week the US PGA Tour, and the rest of the men's tours around the world, converge on Washington D.C. to play the 2nd major of the year, the U.S. Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the U.S. Open.

# Player CLi 
1 Lee Westwood  5.10
2 Steve Stricker  8.00
3 Hunter Mahan  12.80
4 David Toms  15.60
5 Robert Karlsson  16.70
6 Matt Kuchar  19.30
7 Luke Donald  19.90
8 Phil Mickelson  21.20
9 Brandt Jobe  27.20
10 Bo Van Pelt  27.30
11 Peter Hanson  29.50
12 Brandt Snedeker  29.60
13 Bubba Watson  29.90
14 Stewart Cink  30.10
15 Lucas Glover  30.40

Two players have CLi figures under 10: Westwood (analysis) and Stricker (analysis). So those two players are no-brainers to pick.

For my next two picks, I will stick with the next two players in the CLi rankings: Mahan (analysis) and Toms (analysis). Although Mahan missed the cut last year, he has played well in the previous 3 instances of the tournament, placing 6th, 18th, and 13th respectively. And yes, Toms missed the cut last week in Memphis.  However, prior to the tournament in Memphis, he was playing very well. He won at Colonial and lost in a playoff at the PLAYERS Championship. He tends to make the cut in the U.S. Open, having only missed the cut once in the previous 9 Opens (not counting his WD in 2006).  So that gives me a sense of confidence that he will have a solid showing this week.

For my fifth pick, I will skip over Karlsson (analysis) even though he played well last week in Memphis -- losing in a playoff to Frazar. I skipped over Karlsson as my 5th pick last week, and it cost me. Hopefully it will not cost me this week. But the reason I am skipping over Karlsson is because I see a more consistent player in the 6th spot in the CLi rankings, Kuchar (analysis). Kuchar normally does not play well in the U.S. Open, having missed the cut in 4 of his previous 6 outings in this event. However, he did place 6th last year in this event when it was held at Pebble Beach. In addition, he has played well in all of his tournaments this year.  Although he has yet to win this year, he has yet to miss a cut. So, along with his solid play last year, he is riding a confidence wave.  Hopefully this confidence wave will spur him to a solid finish this week.

There are two other players after Kuchar that also look good: Donald (analysis) and Mickelson (analysis). It is tough to not pick them, as Donald is playing well and is the currently the number one player in the world and Mickelson is a fan favorite.  We will have to wait and see if that is a good decision on my part or not.

Below are my 5 picks for the U.S. Open :

# Player CLi 
1 Lee Westwood  5.10
2 Steve Stricker  8.00
3 Hunter Mahan  12.80
4 David Toms  15.60
5 Matt Kuchar  19.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Lee Westwood
  2. Phil Mickelson
  3. Dustin Johnson
  4. Luke Donald
  5. Steve Stricker
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: U.S. Open

We have 2 players in common this week: Westwood and Stricker.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the U.S. Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 20% 20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 10% 10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

You will notice that I have changed the configuration a little in terms of the weights. I have put less weight on past results in this tournament, as I changed the weight for "past touranments looking back" from 25% to 20% for both scoring avg weight and earnings avg weight. The reason is because the U.S. Open changes venues each year. So the the portion of the weight that I normally attribute to knowing a course is removed. I then put more weight on the results leading up to the tournament.

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

FedEx St. Jude Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Lee Westwood | 11 | $134,400
  2. David Toms | 105 (MC) | $0
  3. Zach Johnson | 32 | $30,987
  4. Brian Gay | 117 (MC) | $0
  5. John Senden | 69 | $11,312
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Zach Johnson | 32 | $30,987
  2. David Toms | 105 (MC) | $0
  3. Jonathan Byrd | 25 | $41,840
  4. Brian Gay | 117 (MC) | $0
  5. Lee Westwood | 11 | $134,400
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$176,699$207,227TI
Avg Rank66.858.0TI
Made Cut33DRAW
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 6 wins to the Tour Outsider, 16 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

It was good to see someone I grew up with and competed against in Texas pull out a win. After 355 starts on the U.S. PGA Tour, Harrison Frazar was able to walk to the winner's circle in Memphis. Very nice!!!

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

FedEx St. Jude Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is in Memphis to play the FedEx St. Jude Classic.

As with last week, I am still having technical issues posting the CLi list. So I am not able to post using the normal format of my postings. Therefore, I am just listing my top 5 picks, which are the top 4 and the 6th players in the CLi rankings.

Below are my 5 picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic (CLi figures in parentheses):
  1. Lee Westwood (1.50 | analysis)
  2. David Toms (4.95 | analysis)
  3. Zach Johnson (6.35 | analysis)
  4. Brian Gay (11.00 | analysis)
  5. John Senden (18.45 | analysis)
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Zach Johnson
  2. David Toms
  3. Jonathan Byrd
  4. Brian Gay
  5. Lee Westwood
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: FedEx St. Jude Classic

We have 4 players in common this week: Johnson, Toms, Gay, and Westwood. C'mon Senden!!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the FedEx St. Jude Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Memorial Tournament Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Memorial Tournament to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Phil Mickelson | 13 | $112,840
  2. Luke Donald | 7 | $174,117
  3. K.J. Choi | 22 | $54,405
  4. Stewart Cink | 30 | $36,846
  5. Matt Kuchar | 2 | $545,600
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Matt Kuchar | 2 | $545,600
  2. Luke Donald | 7 | $174,117
  3. Nick Watney | 120 (WD) | $0
  4. Hunter Mahan | 13 | $112,840
  5. Stewart Cink | 30 | $36,846
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$923,807$869,403TO
Avg Rank14.834.4TO
Made Cut54TO
Outcome----TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 6 wins to the Tour Outsider, 15 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

It was good to get a win this week. It helped me (hurt Bolton) that Watney withdrew from the tournament. Not the best way to win a tournament, but a win is a win.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Memorial Tournament

This week the US PGA Tour moves to Jack's country to play his tournament at his course, the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village in Ohio.

Due to some technical issues, I am not able to post using the normal format of my postings. So I am just listing my top 5 picks, which are the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.

Below are my 5 picks for the Memorial Tournament (CLi figures in parentheses):
  1. Phil Mickelson (8.15 | analysis)
  2. Luke Donald (10.05 | analysis)
  3. K.J. Choi (10.85 | analysis)
  4. Stewart Cink (12.95 | analysis)
  5. Matt Kuchar (13.20 | analysis)
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Matt Kuchar
  2. Luke Donald
  3. Nick Watney
  4. Hunter Mahan
  5. Stewart Cink
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Memorial Tournament

We have 3 players in common this week: Kuchar, Donald, and Cink.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Memorial Tournament:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.