Shell Houston Open

This week the US PGA Tour is goes half-way across the country to play in the Shell Houston Open in Texas.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Shell Houston Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Paul Casey	1.80
2	Fred Couples	4.15
3	Ernie Els	7.45
4	Vijay Singh	9.80
5	Anthony Kim	11.10
6	Kevin Streelman	12.35
7	Hunter Mahan	13.05
8	Bubba Watson	15.85
9	D.J. Trahan	17.10
10	Lee Westwood	17.60
11	Padraig Harrington	18.35
12	Geoff Ogilvy	25.85
13	Adam Scott	26.05
14	Martin Kaymer	28.85
15	Jeff Maggert	31.55

I am going to go with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings. The 5 players look good, with Casey being a clear favorite with a CLi figure of 1.80.

There is an interesting player in the top CLi 5 rankings this week, and that Couples. He is an interesting pick as he is now playing on the Champions Tour, and has won the past 3 tournaments on the Champions Tour no less. So one of the reasons the CLi results find him at top and with such a low CLi figure is because those low finishes on the Champions Tour. The US PGA tour events are a league different than the Champions Tour in terms of competition and course setup. So that would lead me to worry about picking him. However, in looking at his finishes at the Shell Houston Open, he plays well in his adopted home town -- he went to college at the University of Houston. In the past 2 years, he has placed 3rd and 4th in the tournament, and he won the tournament in 2003. He has not missed a cut at the tournament in the past 10 years, having played in the tournament 7 of those years. So I am going to include him in my picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the Shell Houston Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Paul Casey	1.80
2	Fred Couples	4.15
3	Ernie Els	7.45
4	Vijay Singh	9.80
5	Anthony Kim	11.10

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Hunter Mahan
2. Paul Casey
3. Ernie Els
4. Padraig Harrington
5. Fred Couples

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Shell Houston Open

We have no players in common this week, which is a first this year.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Shell Houston Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Arnold Palmer Invitational Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Robert Allenby | 14 | $108,000
2. Nick Watney | 64 | $12,660
3. K.J. Choi | 17 | $87,000
4. Graeme McDowell | 86 (MC) | $0
5. Phil Mickelson | 30 | $33,420

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Ernie Els | 1 | $1,080,000
2. Jim Furyk | 11 | $138,000
3. Retief Goosen | 4 | $264,000
4. Steve Stricker | 52 | $13,851
5. Camilo Villegas | 107 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$241,080	$1,495,851	TI
Avg Rank	42.2	35.0	TI
Made Cut	4	5	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider, with a sweep of all 3 categories.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 3 wins to the Tour Outsider, 7 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

This week the US PGA Tour is in Orlando this week to play the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

#	Player	CLi
1	Robert Allenby	16.95
2	Nick Watney	17.05
3	K.J. Choi	19.85
4	Hunter Mahan	20.10
5	Graeme McDowell	21.05
6	Phil Mickelson	21.75
7	Ernie Els	21.90
8	Jim Furyk	24.45
9	Justin Rose	25.20
10	Stephen Ames	26.50
11	Bubba Watson	27.55
12	Retief Goosen	27.60
13	Camilo Villegas	27.95
14	Chris Couch	29.20
15	Charles Howell III	30.15

The CLi figures are all high this week, with none of the players having a CLi figure below 10. This signals that there is not any clear favorites in the tournament this week. Thus, it makes picking players tough this week.

That said, I am going to go with 5 players that are int he top 6 in the CLi rankings. The player that I am going to pass on in the top 5 is Mahan. I wanted to get to Mickelson as I think he will play well this week at Palmer's tournament since Tiger is not playing. Mahan ended up being the player that I pulled.

Below are my 5 picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

#	Player	CLi
1	Robert Allenby	16.95
2	Nick Watney	17.05
3	K.J. Choi	19.85
4	Graeme McDowell	21.05
5	Phil Mickelson	21.75

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Ernie Els
2. Jim Furyk
3. Retief Goosen
4. Steve Stricker
5. Camilo Villegas

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Arnold Palmer Invitational

We have no players in common this week, which is a first this year.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Transitions Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Transitions Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. K.J. Choi | 2 | $583,200
2. Steve Stricker | 8 | $145,800
3. Charles Howell III | 28 | $30,946
4. Vijay Singh | 145 (WD) | $0
5. Justin Rose | 13 | $104,400

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Steve Stricker | 8 | $145,800
2. Justin Rose | 13 | $104,400
3. Vijay Singh | 145 (WD) | $0
4. Charles Howell III | 28 | $30,946
5. Padraig Harrington | 8 | $145,800

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$864,346	$426,946	TO
Avg Rank	39.2	40.4	TO
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 3 wins to the Tour Outsider, 6 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Transitions Championship

This week the US PGA Tour is in the Tampa Bay area this week to play the Transitions Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Transitions Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	K.J. Choi	6.60
2	Steve Stricker	12.70
3	Charles Howell III	14.85
4	Vijay Singh	16.65
5	Justin Rose	17.35
6	Ryuji Imada	18.35
7	Charlie Wi	20.45
8	Stewart Cink	22.40
9	Heath Slocum	26.35
10	Tom Lehman	26.90
11	Sean O'Hair	27.35
12	Paul Goydos	28.05
13	Nick Watney	28.15
14	J.B. Holmes	29.00
15	George McNeill	30.25

Choi is the only player that has a CLi less than 10. This suggests that I should pick him. As well, it suggests that the other 4 picks are going to be difficult since there are not clear favorites down the list. However, that said, the next 4 players in the list all look like good players in this tournament. They all have tended to play well in this tournament over the past 5 years. So I am going to go with the top 5 in the CLi rankings this week.

I just hope they separate themselves from the rest of the pack...even though the CLi says it will be difficult for them to do that since many players are projected to have a good chance of playing well this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Transitions Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	K.J. Choi	6.60
2	Steve Stricker	12.70
3	Charles Howell III	14.85
4	Vijay Singh	16.65
5	Justin Rose	17.35

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Steve Stricker
2. Justin Rose
3. Vijay Singh
4. Charles Howell III
5. Padraig Harrington

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Transitions Championship

We have 4 players in common this week: Stricker, Rose, Singh, and Howell. Hmmmmm....let's go K.J. Choi!!!!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Transitions Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Puerto Rico Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Puerto Rico Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Bryce Molder | 7 | $109,083
2. Tommy Armour III | 133 (WD) | $0
3. Matt Weibring | 113 (MC) | $0
4. Joe Durant | 113 (MC) | $0
5. Kevin Stadler | 17 | $45,800

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Kevin Stadler | 17 | $45,800
2. Rory Sabbatini | 90 (MC) | $0
3. Bryce Molder | 7 | $109,083
4. Alex Prugh | 113 (MC) | $0
5. Tom Pernice, Jr. | 24 | $26,483

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$154,883	$181,366	TI
Avg Rank	76.6	50.2	TI
Made Cut	2	3	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 6 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

From what I can call, this is the first time that I have had a rank average with my picks above the cut line. My average rank for my picks was 76.6, and the cut line was the top 70 players. It didn't help that Armour withdrew before even hitting a shot. Along with Weibring and Durant missing the cut, that meant that I had only 2 players make the cut out of 5 picks. Ouch. Not good.

The Tour Insider (Bolton) didn't fair too well in this tournament either. However, he was able to pull out another win in this tournament.

As for the competitive results with the Tour Insider, I am not fairing too well so far in this season. After starting 0 and 4 in the first 4 tournaments, I was able to win the next 2. However, I lost both of the tournaments that were played this last week. I am back to being 4 down, with 8 tournaments in the books this season.

CA Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the CA Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Camilo Villegas | 16 | $97,500
2. Jim Furyk | 37 | $62,500
3. Alvaro Quiros | 6 | $214,300
4. Phil Mickelson | 14 | $107,500
5. Zach Johnson | 37 | $62,500

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Paul Casey | 6 | $214,300
2. Steve Stricker | 16 | $97,500
3. Camilo Villegas | 16 | $97,500
4. Ian Poulter | 37 | $62,500
5. Anthony Kim | 22 | $81,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$544,300	$552,800	TI
Avg Rank	22.0	19.4	TI
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 5 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Puerto Rico Open

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments. This entry is for the Puerto Rico Open. The other tournament that is being played this week is the Puerto Rico Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Puerto Rico Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Bryce Molder	5.50
2	Tommy Armour III	6.00
3	Matt Weibring	7.80
4	Ronnie Black	7.90
5	Joe Durant	9.20
6	Kevin Stadler	9.40
7	Skip Kendall	17.50
8	Jarrod Lyle	21.70
9	Chad Collins	23.70
10	Marco Dawson	26.60
11	Alexander Cejka	27.00
12	Shaun Micheel	30.90
13	Shigeki Maruyama	32.20
14	Chris Riley	32.50
15	Charles Warren	32.90

I cam going to with Molder, Armour, Weibring, Durant, and Stadler. I skipped over Ronnie Black because his solid places of late were in Champions Tour events. So they were not on as strong of courses and fields compared to the other players. That said, Armour has several Champions Tour finishes of late which the CLi used for the calculation. However, after looking at his US PGA Tour event finishes, and knowing how Armour plays on courses like the one the Puerto Rico Open is being played on, I feel he has a good chance against the younger group of players.

Below are my 5 picks for the Puerto Rico Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Bryce Molder	5.50
2	Tommy Armour III	6.00
3	Matt Weibring	7.80
4	Joe Durant	9.20
5	Kevin Stadler	9.40

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Kevin Stadler
2. Rory Sabbatini
3. Bryce Molder
4. Alex Prugh
5. Tom Pernice Jr.

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Puerto Rico Open

We have 2 players in common this tournament: Stadler and Molder.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Puerto Rico Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
2	10%	10%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	20%	20%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

CA Championship

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments. The CA Championship is being played at Doral in southern Florida (basically Miami), and the Puerto Rico Open is being played at the Trump International Golf Club on the island of Puerto Rico. This blog entry is for the CA Championship. A separate blog entry will be posted later today for the Puerto Rico Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the CA Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Camilo Villegas	3.75
2	Geoff Ogilvy	11.05
3	Jim Furyk	12.45
4	Alvaro Quiros	14.65
5	Phil Mickelson	14.80
6	Dustin Johnson	15.15
7	Zach Johnson	16.55
8	Retief Goosen	17.05
9	Paul Casey	17.55
10	Oliver Wilson	18.35
11	Ian Poulter	18.50
12	Luke Donald	19.55
13	Steve Stricker	19.85
14	Vijay Singh	20.60
15	David Toms	22.70

I cam going to with Villegas as the first pick. It hard to pass him up since 1) he looks like a clear favorite based upon his CLi figure compared to the other players in the list, 2) he has been playing well of late, winning last week at the Honda Classic, and 3) he likes playing in southern Florida, where Doral is located.

I am going to pass on Ogilvy. He has been struggling of late in terms of finishes. I will pick the next 3 players: Furyk, Quiros, and Mickelson. Furyk and Mickelson are "no-brainers", since they love playing at Doral and thus tend to place well in tournaments played on this course. The interesting pick is Quiros. Quiros is a European PGA Tour player who has played well so far this year. He has finished 14th (Waste Management Phoenix Open), 6th (Dubai Desert Classic), and 2nd (Qatar Masters) in the tournaments he has played in. And he placed 13th in last year's CA Championship. So I see him having a good chance of playing well this week at Doral.

For my final pick, I am going to go with Zach Johnson. He is a steady player and I can seem him pulling a top 25 this week since he has placed in the top 15 the 4 of the last 5 years at in tournaments played at Doral. His only finish at Doral outside of the top 15 was last year, where he placed 53rd. Other than that, he has played well at Doral over the last 5 years.

Below are my 5 picks for the CA Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Camilo Villegas	3.75
2	Jim Furyk	12.45
3	Alvaro Quiros	14.65
4	Phil Mickelson	14.80
5	Zach Johnson	16.55

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Paul Casey
2. Steve Stricker
3. Camilo Villegas
4. Ian Poulter
5. Anthony Kim

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: CA Championship

We have 1 player in common this week: Villegas.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the CA Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Honda Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Honda Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Ernie Els | 67 | $11,368
2. Y.E. Yang | 119 (MC) | $0
3. Robert Allenby | 112 (MC) | $0
4. Camilo Villegas | 1 | $1,008,000
5. Padraig Harrington | 40 | $19,118

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Robert Allenby | 112 (MC) | $0
2. Y.E. Yang | 119 (MC) | $0
3. Sergio Garcia | 50 | $13,403
4. Ernie Els | 67 | $11,368
5. Charles Howell III | 26 | $41,440

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,038,486	$66,211	TO
Avg Rank	67.8	74.8	TO
Made Cut	3	3	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 4 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

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Honda Classic

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the east coast to start the Florida swing with the Honda Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Honda Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	5.35
2	Y.E. Yang	6.45
3	Rory McIlroy	10.25
4	Robert Allenby	10.55
5	Camilo Villegas	12.45
6	Padraig Harrington	13.50
7	Tim Clark	17.50
8	Scott Piercy	17.75
9	Steve Marino	19.85
10	Stephen Ames	22.45
11	John Rollins	24.65
12	Sergio Garcia	24.75
13	Paul Goydos	31.05
14	Mark Wilson	33.75
15	Spencer Levin	34.70

I am going to pick 5 players from the top 6 in the CLi rankings: Els, Yang, Allenby, Villegas, and Harrington. I skiped over McIlroy, as he is an unknown quantity in this tournament and the other 5 players in the top 6 tend to play well at the Honda. McIlroy could easily play well this week, but the 5 players I picked also have a great chance to play well.

Below are my 5 picks for the Honda Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	5.35
2	Y.E. Yang	6.45
3	Robert Allenby	10.55
4	Camilo Villegas	12.45
5	Padraig Harrington	13.50

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Robert Allenby
2. Y.E. Yang
3. Sergio Garcia
4. Ernie Els
5. Charles Howell III

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Honda Classic

We have 3 players in common this week: Allenby, Yang, and Els.

So far this year my picks have been doing rather well. However, I have lost the first 4 tournaments to Bolton. Hopefully this week I can turn it around.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Honda Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%