Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Shell Houston Open

This week the US PGA Tour is goes half-way across the country to play in the Shell Houston Open in Texas.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Shell Houston Open.

# Player CLi
1 Paul Casey 1.80
2 Fred Couples 4.15
3 Ernie Els 7.45
4 Vijay Singh 9.80
5 Anthony Kim 11.10
6 Kevin Streelman 12.35
7 Hunter Mahan 13.05
8 Bubba Watson 15.85
9 D.J. Trahan 17.10
10 Lee Westwood 17.60
11 Padraig Harrington 18.35
12 Geoff Ogilvy 25.85
13 Adam Scott 26.05
14 Martin Kaymer 28.85
15 Jeff Maggert 31.55

I am going to go with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings. The 5 players look good, with Casey being a clear favorite with a CLi figure of 1.80.

There is an interesting player in the top CLi 5 rankings this week, and that Couples. He is an interesting pick as he is now playing on the Champions Tour, and has won the past 3 tournaments on the Champions Tour no less. So one of the reasons the CLi results find him at top and with such a low CLi figure is because those low finishes on the Champions Tour. The US PGA tour events are a league different than the Champions Tour in terms of competition and course setup. So that would lead me to worry about picking him. However, in looking at his finishes at the Shell Houston Open, he plays well in his adopted home town -- he went to college at the University of Houston. In the past 2 years, he has placed 3rd and 4th in the tournament, and he won the tournament in 2003. He has not missed a cut at the tournament in the past 10 years, having played in the tournament 7 of those years. So I am going to include him in my picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the Shell Houston Open:

# Player CLi
1 Paul Casey 1.80
2 Fred Couples 4.15
3 Ernie Els 7.45
4 Vijay Singh 9.80
5 Anthony Kim 11.10

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

  1. Hunter Mahan
  2. Paul Casey
  3. Ernie Els
  4. Padraig Harrington
  5. Fred Couples

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Shell Houston Open

We have no players in common this week, which is a first this year.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Shell Houston Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

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