Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Tour Outsider: Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship

This is week the US PGA Tour starts it's Fed Ex Cup Playoff Tournaments. The first tournament in the "playoff" is the Deutsche Bank U.S. Bank Championship.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

CLi Strength: Top 15 -15.84 | Field +2.37
Rank Player CLi
1 S Vijay Singh 7.50
2 S Carl Pettersson 14.90
3 S Sergio Garcia 15.20
4 S Phil Mickelson 16.00
5 S Jim Furyk 20.70
6 S Charlie Wi 21.50
7 S Kenny Perry 22.70
8 S Robert Allenby 22.90
9 S Jay Williamson 23.90
10 S Fredrik Jacobson 28.10
11 S Eric Axley 31.20
12 S George McNeill 31.70
13 S Briny Baird 32.90
14 S Glen Day 33.10
15 S Dean Wilson 33.60

I am going to skip over Singh this week. Yes, he is slated first in the CLi rankings list, and yes, he does have a CLi figure below 10 and I do not normally skip over players that have a CLi less than 10. However, something striking stuck out to me in Singh's results over the past 4-6 weeks. He won the Bridgestone and then proceeded to miss the cut in the next 2 events. Then he won last week at the Barclays. If that pattern continues this week, that would mean that Singh will not make the cut or at least play poorly. If this week shows that trend continuing, maybe Singh is getting a little tired and needs rest between his tournaments. Let's watch and see. Hopefully, that is not the case. I would like to see him power through the end of the season playing well.

Then I am also going to pass on Pettersson. I just don't have a good feeling of him playing well even though he did win two weeks ago in North Carolina at the Wyndham.

So continuing on with my picks, I will pick the next 4 players in the CLi list: Garcia Mickelson, Furyk and Wi. Garcia, Mickelson and Furyk are strong work horses at this event. They are almost assured to make the cut. As for Wi, he is just playing well.

For my final pick, I am going to go down to 8th place in the CLi list and pick Allenby. He has played well in this event, not finishing out of the top 20 the 4 times he has played the event. Then leading up to this tournament he has not placed outside of the top 4 in the last 30 days, which includes the last 4 tournament he has played. He has played 4 weeks straight leading up to this tournament. Hopefully he will not tire out this week.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship are:

Rank Player CLi
1 S Sergio Garcia 15.20
2 S Phil Mickelson 16.00
3 S Jim Furyk 20.70
4 S Charlie Wi 21.50
5 S Robert Allenby 22.90

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Garcia and Mickelson.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Tour Outsider: Barclays Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Barclays Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Padraig Harrington 11.35 MC MC 92 65 $0
2 S Sergio Garcia 18.00 2 2 6 25 $616,000
3 S Phil Mickelson 19.30 19 39 21 25 $84,840
4 S Jim Furyk 30.85 12 11 36 25 $129,000
5 S Stuart Appleby 34.30 19 11 36 45 $84,840

This week is a lot better than the results I have had the past 4 weeks. It is nice to see a top ten finish, with Garcia placing second --- losing in a playoff to Singh. Then the next 3 players in my pick list all placed in the top 20. That is very nice to see.

The only negative mark on the picks score card this week was that 1 player missed the cut: Harrington. No one thought that Harrington was going to miss the cut. Most people thought he was going to actually place well. So to see him miss the cut this week was a surprise to say the least.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $914,680 $502,380 TO
Avg Rank 28.8 38.4 TO
Made Cut 4 4 DRAW
Outcome -- -- TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 17 wins to the Tour Outsider, 14 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.


The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Rich Beem 10.90 55 49 44 8 $15,680
2 S Padraig Harrington 11.35 MC MC 92 65 $0
3 S Sergio Garcia 18.00 2 2 6 25 $616,000
4 S Phil Mickelson 19.30 19 39 21 25 $84,840
5 S Brian Davis 24.55 38 49 61 14 $26,600
6 S Vijay Singh 28.60 1 2 21 25 $1,260,000
7 S Carl Pettersson 30.15 48 49 44 65 $17,400
8 S Steve Flesch 30.35 MC MC 73 65 $0
9 S Jim Furyk 30.85 12 11 36 25 $129,000
10 S Camilo Villegas 32.60 MC MC 73 65 $0
11 S Ian Poulter 33.25 MC MC 92 89 $0
12 S Retief Goosen 34.25 MC MC 103 89 $0
13 S Stuart Appleby 34.30 19 11 36 45 $84,840
14 S Billy Mayfair 36.15 31 49 21 25 $39,700
15 S Tim Clark 38.05 38 39 14 25 $26,600

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Tour Outsider: Barclays Classic

This is week the US PGA Tour starts it's Fed Ex Cup Playoff Tournaments. The first tournament in the "playoff" is the Barclays Classic.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi
1 S Rich Beem 10.90
2 S Padraig Harrington 11.35
3 S Sergio Garcia 18.00
4 S Phil Mickelson 19.30
5 S Brian Davis 24.55
6 S Vijay Singh 28.60
7 S Carl Pettersson 30.15
8 S Steve Flesch 30.35
9 S Jim Furyk 30.85
10 S Camilo Villegas 32.60
11 S Ian Poulter 33.25
12 S Retief Goosen 34.25
13 S Stuart Appleby 34.30
14 S Billy Mayfair 36.15
15 S Tim Clark 38.05

The first thing I noticed in the CLi rankings for this tournament is that no player has a CLi figure of less than 10. This basically tells me that the CLi does not think that any one player has a very high chance of a guaranteeing a top 10. That is not a good sign when I am using the CLi to pick which players will play well this week. That said, let's start picking.

With the CLi figures being higher than normal, I am going to pick across the board.

I am going to pass on Beem, pick Harrington, Garcia and Mickelson. Harrington won the British two weeks ago, Garcia came in second and Mickelson likes to be on the big stage at the Barclays.

Then I am going down the list to pick Furyk and Appleby. Furyk likes playing in New York, especially when the venue is close to New York City. Appleby is just a strong competitor and should guarantee me a player that will make the cut. Hopefully he will do even better than just making the cut.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Barclays Classic are:

Rank Player CLi
1 S Padraig Harrington 11.35
2 S Sergio Garcia 18.00
3 S Phil Mickelson 19.30
4 S Jim Furyk 30.85
5 S Stuart Appleby 34.30

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Mickelson and Furyk.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Tour Outsider: Wyndham Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Wyndham Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Eric Axley 6.55 41 13 45 30 $18,870
2 S Dean Wilson 13.80 69 73 61 11 $10,149
3 S Brian Davis 15.00 WD WD WD 76 $0
4 S Billy Mayfair 17.95 78 52 29 30 $9,486
5 S Ken Duke 27.15 60 62 45 7 $11,067

Am still in a rut with my picks. This week my highest pick was Axley with a 41st place finish. My average rank for my picks was just over 80. That figure is above the 70-cut line, which is never good. Shedloski is probably going to wipe me out this week to keep his winning ways going.

The one bright spot faded after Brian Davis withdrew in the second round. Before he withdrew, I had all 5 of my players "making the cut". I like when all my picks make the cut.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $49,572 $121,432 TI
Avg Rank 80.8 44.4 TI
Made Cut 4 5 TI
Outcome -- -- TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Tour Insider won Made Cut category for the clean sweep of all three categories.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 16 wins to the Tour Outsider, 14 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

Shedloski is catching up with me. Now he is only 2 wins away from pulling into a tie. This is making the picks game more interesting between the two of us.


The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Eric Axley 6.55 41 13 45 30 $18,870
2 S Dean Wilson 13.80 69 73 61 11 $10,149
3 S Brian Davis 15.00 WD WD WD 76 $0
4 S Billy Mayfair 17.95 78 52 29 30 $9,486
5 S Steve Marino 19.15 53 41 12 7 $11,774
6 S Tom Pernice Jr 19.40 26 34 18 50 $40,673
7 S Joe Ogilvie 20.60 41 47 61 76 $18,870
8 S Richard S Johnson 21.45 53 52 61 30 $11,774
9 S Jason Gore 23.05 66 52 45 30 $10,608
10 S Ryan Palmer 23.45 MC MC 142 145 $0
11 S Bob Tway 23.70 41 41 29 89 $18,870
12 S Tim Herron 26.45 MC MC 122 50 $0
13 S Ken Duke 27.15 60 62 45 7 $11,067
14 S John Huston 27.65 WD WD WD 89 $0
15 S Brandt Jobe 28.25 MC MC 99 89 $0