Taking a break until the start of the 2010 Season

I am taking a break at the moment....just too many things to have to focus on this Fall season. So I won't be posting my picks again until the 2010 professional golf season starts. In the meantime, if you want to run your own Golf CLi you can do so for any of the tournaments on the major tours by setting up an account on golfcli.com.

Turning Stone Resort Championship

Another week gone by, and I continue to be behind the eight ball with my posts....hmmmm. In any event, here are my picks for the Turning Stone Resort Championship. The tournament is the start of the US PGA Tour's Fall Finish.

• 1. Bill Haas
• 2. John Senden
• 3. Dustin Johnson
• 4. Mark Wilson
• 5. Jonathan Byrd

Tour Championship

I am running late this week and will not have time to post the detail posting for the Tour Championship later today. So I am going to post my five picks this morning and then update the update tomorrow or so.

Here are my picks for the Tour Championship which is being played in Atlanta this week. The fields is limited to 30 players.

• 1. Tiger Woods
• 2. Jim Furyk
• 3. Padraig Harrington
• 4. Zach Johnson
• 5. Retief Goosen

BMW Championship

The 3rd leg of the US PGA Tour's FedEx Playoff season will be the BMW Championship, which is being played in Chicago at Cog Hill.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the BMW Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.35
2	Steve Stricker	7.90
3	Sergio Garcia	11.65
4	Jim Furyk	16.05
5	Fredrik Jacobson	16.55
6	Ernie Els	17.60
7	Ian Poulter	17.90
8	Heath Slocum	19.50
9	Scott Verplank	19.85
10	Stephen Ames	22.80
11	Hunter Mahan	23.15
12	Angel Cabrera	23.45
13	Bill Haas	23.70
14	Steve Marino	23.80
15	Brandt Snedeker	24.00

I am going to go with the top 4 in the CLi rankings: Woods, Stricker, Garcia, and Furyk. Then I am going to skip down to Poulter for my 5th pick. He is a dark horse for this tournament, as most people would not think about picking him. Let's see if he is able to pull in a top 10 this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the BMW Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.35
2	Steve Stricker	7.90
3	Sergio Garcia	11.65
4	Jim Furyk	16.05
5	Ian Poulter	17.90

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the BMW Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship

The 2nd leg of the US PGA Tour's FedEx Playoff season will be the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship. The event begins on Friday and ends on Monday (Labor Day holiday).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	2.20
2	Ernie Els	9.05
3	Sergio Garcia	13.05
4	Robert Allenby	16.85
5	Steve Stricker	18.45
6	Ryan Moore	19.35
7	Jason Bohn	20.85
8	Bill Haas	22.15
9	Steve Marino	23.65
10	Brandt Snedeker	24.05
11	John Rollins	24.35
12	Mike Weir	26.15
13	Justin Rose	29.55
14	Phil Mickelson	29.60
15	Chad Campbell	30.45

the top 5 players in the CLi rankings look really good. Woods plays well at the Deutsche. Els has been improving his play of late and had a chance to win going into the final 9 holes last week at the Barclays. Garcia has been playing well, however, he has not converted a win yet. Allenby plays well at the Deutsche and is always a solid pick in any tournament due to his consistent play. Stricker is also playing well, and had a chance to win last week at the Barclays Classic.

Below are my 5 picks for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	2.20
2	Ernie Els	9.05
3	Sergio Garcia	13.05
4	Robert Allenby	16.85
5	Steve Stricker	18.45

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Barclays Classic

This week the US PGA Tour begins it's playoff season beginning in New York with the Barclays Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Barclays Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Jason Bohn	15.40
2	Steve Stricker	21.40
3	Sergio Garcia	22.75
4	Hunter Mahan	31.05
5	Ernie Els	31.50
6	Ryan Moore	31.50
7	Tim Herron	31.85
8	Bill Haas	32.10
9	Padraig Harrington	32.45
10	Justin Rose	35.35
11	Zach Johnson	35.65
12	Jerry Kelly	36.05
13	John Senden	36.05
14	Fred Couples	36.10
15	John Rollins	37.30

With the Barclays playing on a different course for the first time, it is difficult to see how past performance in this tournament will help the players. As you will see in the CLi configuration at the end of this posting, I have accounted for that by lowering the weight of the importance for past results in this tournament. I didn't lower it to 0%, as I still think there is some residual left over with the tournament being part of the playoffs and player's mental as such. So have kept a 30% (15% + 15%) weight on the past results for the tournament in place. That said, the CLi results above reflect that configuration. You will see that the CLi figures are high. This means the CLi is not able to determine a clear cut group of favorite players to play well.

As for my picks, I am going to skip around a little and not stick with the top 5 players. My 5 picks are Bohn, Garcia, Els, Harrington, and Johnson. Garcia, Els, Harrington and Johnson are safety picks. Bohn is the suspect pick. However, the CLi showed him on the top of the list and his CLi is 6 points lower than the 2nd player in the list. He did play well at the Wyndham last week. So I decided to take a chance on him this week.

As for Els, if he keeps hitting it the way he has been of late, it will be up to his putter to make the difference.

Below are my 5 picks for the Barclays Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Jason Bohn	15.40
2	Sergio Garcia	22.75
3	Ernie Els	31.50
4	Padraig Harrington	32.45
5	Zach Johnson	35.65

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Barclays Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	15%	15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	15%	15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Wyndham Championship

This week the US PGA Tour is playing in the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Wyndham Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Michael Letzig	6.90
2	Martin Laird	8.20
3	Jason Bohn	25.05
4	Joe Ogilvie	25.15
5	Jonathan Byrd	27.85
6	Charles Warren	31.35
7	Kevin Streelman	31.50
8	Jason Gore	32.90
9	Tim Petrovic	33.60
10	J.J. Henry	34.35
11	Jason Dufner	34.55
12	Scott McCarron	35.05
13	Ryan Moore	35.20
14	John Senden	36.20
15	Brandt Snedeker	37.80

The first two players in the CLi rankings, Letzig and Laird, do not seem like obvious picks. However, they do have a CLi figures below 10. So it seems worth my while to include them in my picks.

After Letzig and Laird, the CLi figures jump to 25 and above. This means that the next 3 picks are up in the air for me. So I cam going to scan through the next 13 players in the list and pick Ogilvie, Byrd, and Henry.

Below are my 5 picks for the Wyndham Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Michael Letzig	6.90
2	Martin Laird	8.20
3	Joe Ogilvie	25.15
4	Jonathan Byrd	27.85
5	J.J. Henry	34.35

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Wyndham Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

PGA Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the PGA Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 2 | $810,000
• 2 Retief Goosen | 51 | $16,260
• 3 Steve Stricker | 109 (MC) | $0
• 4 David Toms | 36 | $31,736
• 5 Stewart Cink | 67 | $14,050

Here are the results for Paul's picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 2 | $810,000
• 2 Lee Westwood | 3 | $435,000
• 3 Padraig Harrington | 10 | $150,633
• 4 Geoff Ogilvy | 43 | $21,113
• 5 Retief Goosen | 51 | $16,260

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Paul Ginn	Winner
Total Earnings	$872,046	$1,433,006	Paul
Avg Rank	53.0	21.8	Paul
Made Cut	4	5	Paul
Outcome	--	--	Paul

The Total Earnings category was won by Paul.

The Avg Rank category was won by Paul.

The Made Cut category was won by Paul.

This tournament overall was won by Paul.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and Paul is 5 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to Paul, and 0 draws.

This marks the end of the competition between Paul and I. It looks like I got the better of Paul during this competition, having won 5 of the 7 tournaments that we made picks for. On a positive note for Paul, the one of the two wins that Paul had did include a major (the PGA Championship).

PGA Championship

This week the US PGA Tour is playing it's 4th and final major of the year, the US PGA Championship. The tournament is being held in Minnesota at Hazeltine, which is where Rich Beem won the event in 2002.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the US PGA Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.00
2	Retief Goosen	15.10
3	Steve Stricker	15.20
4	David Toms	17.00
5	Brandt Snedeker	18.00
6	Bo Van Pelt	20.00
7	Phil Mickelson	20.30
8	Stewart Cink	20.50
9	John Senden	22.30
10	Kenny Perry	23.70
11	Woody Austin	27.30
12	Nathan Green	28.80
13	Lucas Glover	29.70
14	Hunter Mahan	30.80
15	Jim Furyk	31.10

I am going to go with the first 4 players in the CLi rankings: Woods, Goosen, Stricker, and Toms. Then I am going to skip down the 8th player and pick Cink. He played well at Hazeltine in 2002 and is playing well this summer, having won the British Open.

Note: It is hard to pass over Mickelson. It was a choice between Toms and Mickelson. I decided to take a chance on Toms to see if he can rekindle his 2001 win at the US PGA Championship.

Below are my 5 picks for the US PGA Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.00
2	Retief Goosen	15.10
3	Steve Stricker	15.20
4	David Toms	17.00
5	Stewart Cink	20.50

Below are Paul Ginn's 5 picks for the US PGA Championship:

#	Player
1	Tiger Woods
2	Lee Westwood
3	Padraig Harrington
4	Geoff Ogilvy
5	Retief Goosen

In this tournament, we have two players in common: Woods and Goosen.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the US PGA Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
7	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
60	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
6	20%	20%

Bridgestone Invitational Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Bridgestone Invitational to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 1 | $1,400,00
• 2 Lee Westwood | 9 | $160,000
• 3 Stewart Cink | 6 | $214,333
• 4 Retief Goosen | 29 | $67,000
• 5 Luke Donald | 45 | $51,500

Here are the results for Paul's picks.

• 1 Tiger Woods | 1 | $1,400,000
• 2 Lee Westwood | 9 | $160,000
• 3 Rory McIlory | 68 | $39,250
• 4 Kenny Perry | 11 | $112,500
• 5 Paul Casey | 80 (WD) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Paul Ginn	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,892833	$1,711,750	TI
Avg Rank	18.0	33.8	TI
Made Cut	5	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and Paul is 5 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to Paul, and 0 draws.

Legends Reno-Tahoe Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Legends Reno-Tahoe Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

• 1 John Rollins | 1 | $540,000
• 2 J.J. Henry | 9 | $75,000
• 3 Aaron Baddeley | 90 (MC) | $0
• 4 Vaughn Taylor | 26 | $20,850
• 5 Steve Flesch | 34 | $14,829

Here are the results for Paul's picks.

• 1 Greg Chalmers | 90 (MC) | $0
• 2 James Nitties | 26 | $20,850
• 3 Charlie Wi | 82 (MC) | $0
• 4 J.J. Henry | 9 | $75,000
• 5 Steve Elkington | 22 | $30,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Paul Ginn	Winner
Total Earnings	$650,679	$125,850	TI
Avg Rank	32.0	45.8	TI
Made Cut	4	3	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and Paul is 4 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to Paul, and 0 draws.

Bridgestone Invitational

The second tournament for the week for the US PGA Tour is the Bridgestone Invitational. The tournament is part of the World Golf Championship (aka: the elite US PGA Tour events). Only 80 players are in the field and there is no cut.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Bridgestone Invitational.

#	Player	Cli
1	Tiger Woods	1.25
2	Lee Westwood	8.30
3	Stewart Cink	11.10
4	Zach Johnson	13.80
5	Davis Love III	13.95
6	Lucas Glover	14.35
7	Hunter Mahan	15.20
8	Retief Goosen	15.95
9	Jim Furyk	16.95
10	Anthony Kim	16.95
11	Luke Donald	17.20
12	Kenny Perry	17.90
13	David Toms	18.60
14	Vijay Singh	19.10
15	Scott Verplank	20.10

I am going to go with the first 3 players in the CLi rankings: Woods, Westwood, and Cink. Then I am going to skip down the 8th player and pick Goosen. Then I will skip down to the 11th player and pick Donald.

Of note, the 7th player to the 15th player (the 2nd half of the top 15 player in the CLi rankings) have CLi figures with 5 points. So it is hard to distinguish between which of these players will play well in this tournament. Thus I needed to think through these players to pick Goosen and Donald.

Below are my 5 picks for the Bridgestone Invitational:

#	Player	Cli
1	Tiger Woods	1.25
2	Lee Westwood	8.30
3	Stewart Cink	11.10
4	Retief Goosen	15.95
5	Luke Donald	17.20

Below are Paul Ginn's 5 picks for the Bridgestone Invitational:

#	Player
1	Tiger Woods
2	Lee Westwood
3	Rory McIlroy
4	Kenny Perry
5	Paul Casey

In this tournament, we have two player in common: Woods and Westwood.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Bridgestone Invitational:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%