Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Waste Management Phoenix Open

The US PGA Tour heads to Arizona for the Super Bowl weekend staple tournament, the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

# Player CLi 
1 Mark Wilson 3.35
2 Jason Dufner 5.70
3 Brandt Snedeker 9.80
4 John Rollins 14.55
5 Ben Crane 15.50
6 Matt Kuchar 17.90
7 Jeff Maggert 18.30
8 Martin Laird 19.00
9 Charles Howell III 20.05
10 Jonathan Byrd 20.10
11 Webb Simpson 21.35
12 D.A. Points 22.10
13 Kenny Perry 22.25
14 Brian Gay 23.45
15 Robert Garrigus 23.75

There are 3 players with CLi figures less than 10: Wilson (analysis), Dufner (analysis), and Snedeker (analysis).  These 3 players will be my first 3 picks for the tournament.

Wilson won here last year, and won two weeks ago at the Humana Challenge.  In the 4 times he has played this tournament, his worse finish has been a 48th finish.   He placed 8th and 14th respectively the two other times he played the event.

Dufner finished 2nd here last year behind Wilson, and finished 12th two weeks ago at the Humana Challenge.  Maybe he will mirror Wilson this week -- hopefully a good mirror.

Snedeker won last week, and placed 8th two weeks ago in the Humana Challenge.  He has played in this event five times and has two top 10 finishes.

For my fourth pick, I am going to go with the next player in the rankings, Rollins (analysis).  He has played consistently so far this year, having made the cut in all 3 tournaments he has played in.  Two of those tournaments were top 10 finishes, with a 3rd place finish last week at the Farmers Insurance Open.  He has not missed the cut in this tournament the past 9 times he has played the tournament.  Plus, he finished 2nd in 2007.

For my fifth pick, I am going to skip down the list (yes, I am skipping over Crane (analysis) -- he hasn't been consistent when I have picked him or skipped over him).  I am looking at Laird (analysis) for my fifth pick.  Laird placed 3rd here last year and has two top 15 finishes so far this year.  One of those top 15 finishes is a 2nd at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

Below are my 5 picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

# Player CLi 
1 Mark Wilson 3.35
2 Jason Dufner 5.70
3 Brandt Snedeker 9.80
4 John Rollins 14.55
5 Martin Laird 19.00

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Rickie Fowler
  2. Bill Haas
  3. Brandt Snedeker
  4. Mark Wilson
  5. Martin Laird
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Waste Management Phoenix Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Snedeker, Wilson, and Laird.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Farmers Insurance Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Farmers Insurance Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Ben Crane | 80 (MC) | $0
  2. Charles Howell III | 43 | $18,720
  3. Brandt Snedeker | 1 | $1,080,000
  4. D.A. Points | 8 | $162,000
  5. Nick Watney | 60 | $13,020
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Nick Watney | 60 | $13,020
  2. Phil Mickelson | 109 (MC) | $0
  3. Brandt Snedeker | 1 | $1,080,000
  4. Camilo Villegas | 22 | $57,600
  5. Ben Crane | 80 (MC) | $0
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$1,273,740$1,150,620TO
Avg Rank38.454.4TO
Made Cut43TO
Outcome----TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 2 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

We both had a winner in Snedeker. Snedeker backed into the win, as Kyle Stanley took a triple bogey on the last hole and lost in the playoff against Snedeker. That is a heartbreak for Stanley.

This week gives me the lead again, as the difference for me was Points, who placed in the top 10, and Howell III made the cut...giving me the edge.

Only Crane missed the cut in my picks. He was a favorite based upon the CLi figures, but missed the cut by one shot. The CLi got that one wrong.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Farmers Insurance Open

The US PGA Tour stays in California this week to play to play the Farmers Insurance Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Farmers Insurance Open.

# Player CLi 
1 Ben Crane 4.40
2 Charles Howell III 8.35
3 Brandt Snedeker 8.35
4 D.A. Points 11.70
5 Nick Watney 13.10
6 Justin Leonard 13.80
7 Phil Mickelson 14.70
8 Keegan Bradley 18.65
9 Matthew Every 19.25
10 John Rollins 23.00
11 Camilo Villegas 23.50
12 Anthony Kim 25.30
13 Chris Kirk 31.10
14 Bubba Watson 32.00
15 Vijay Singh 32.85

Nice to see the CLi figures lower than last week.  Last week for the Humana Challenge, none of the CLi figures were below 10 -- which is not a good sign for the accuracy of the CLi.   However, the CLi actually was predicting well last week until the 3rd round winds come up.  This week there are 3 players with a CLi figure less than 10.  That usually indicates a better prediction value for the CLi.

I am not going to skip over Crane (analysis) like I did last week.  The CLi had him at 2nd last week and he ended up playing well -- he was was leading after the 2nd round.  This week Crane has the lowest CLi figure.  So there is no way I am going to not pick him.  So Crane is my first pick.

For the remaining 4 picks, I am going to stick with the CLi as they all look like good picks this week: Howell III (analysis), Snedeker (analysis), Points (analysis), and Watney (analysis).

Howell III has not missed the cut in the 9 times he has played this event, and has placed in the top 15 six of those times with two 2nd place finishes.  He has a 2nd place finish two weeks ago in the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Snedeker has placed in the top 10 three of the five times he has played in this tournament, with a 2nd and 3rd place finish in 2010 and 2007 respectively.  Plus, he finished 8th last week at the Humana Challenge.

Points has placed 5th and 9th the last two years in this event and has finished 6th and 12th in the first two events of the year (the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open in Hawaii).

Watney has placed 6th, 9th, and 1st the last three years in this event, and placed 9th in 2007 -- that is four top tens within five years.  The only tournament he has played this year and within the past 4 weeks is the Hyundai Tournament of Champions where he finished 12th.

Below are my 5 picks for the Farmers Insurance Open:

# Player CLi 
1 Ben Crane 4.40
2 Charles Howell III 8.35
3 Brandt Snedeker 8.35
4 D.A. Points 11.70
5 Nick Watney 13.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Nick Watney
  2. Phil Mickelson
  3. Brandt Snedeker
  4. Camilo Villegas
  5. Ben Crane
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Farmers Insurance Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Watney, Snedeker, and Crane.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Farmers Insurance Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Humana Challenge Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Humana Challenge to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Chris Kirk | 42 | $18,512
  2. Brian Gay | 42 | $18,512
  3. Bryce Molder | 121 (MC) | $0
  4. Charles Howell III | 49 | $13,821
  5. Harrison Frazar | 92 (MC) | $0
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Bill Haas | 64 | $11,816
  2. Martin Laird | 14 | $95,200
  3. Bo van Pelt | 54 | $12,488
  4. Charles Howell III | 49 | $13,821
  5. Kyle Stanley | 92 (MC) | $0
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$50,845$133,325TI
Avg Rank69.254.6TI
Made Cut34TI
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

The delayed 3rd round (due to high winds) kicked my butt this week. Going into the 3rd round, and at the start of the 3rd round, my picks were sitting relatively pretty (would have been even better if I had not skipped over Crane, as he was leading after the 2nd round). However, after the organizers decided to suspend the 3rd round on Saturday, my players' scores skyrocketed. My players lost 72 spots from round 2 to round 3, and an additional 14 spots from round 3 to round 4...oops.  I guess they didn't like the 3rd round being stopped on Saturday and being moved to Sunday (or they didn't like the high winds.....).

This resulted in a poor showing for me this week. Although Bolton do very well this week either, he did squeak out the win.

Note: If I had not skipped over Crane in the CLi rankings (he was ranked 2nd in the CLi ranking), I would have bested Bolton. Crane finished 8th in the tournament, earning $156,800.  Maybe that will teach me not to go against the CLi. :-)

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Humana Challenge

The US PGA Tour moves to the mainland and lands on the west coast to play the Humana Challenge. This tournament was formerly called the Bob Hope Classic. As of this year, the tournament has the name of the sponsor, Humana.  Humana was founded in 1961 in my current home town, Louisville, Kentucky, by David Jones Sr.

The son of the founder, David Jones, Jr, works in my area of research -- entrepreneurial finance. He is a partner in a venture capital firm, Chrysalis Ventures.  So I end up following what Jones and Chrysalis decide where to invest their money.

Now on to what this post is about, picking 5 players for this week's professional golf tournament that is sanctioned by the U.S. PGA Tour.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Humana Challenge.

# Player CLi 
1 Chris Kirk 11.15
2 Ben Crane 16.15
3 Brian Gay 18.25
4 Bryce Molder 21.20
5 Charles Howell III 21.65
6 Harrison Frazar 21.85
7 Anthony Kim 21.95
8 Justin Leonard 22.45
9 Greg Chalmers 23.15
10 Kevin Na 24.40
11 John Senden 25.20
12 Martin Laird 27.60
13 Jason Dufner 27.65
14 Brendon De Jonge 28.25
15 John Rollins 30.25

I am going to go with the top player, Kirk (analysis).  This might seem like an interesting pick as Kirk is not well known. However, placed well in the tournament last year (his only time he has played the tournament) with a 7th place finish.  In addition, he comes into the tournament with several solid finishes at the Sony and the Hyundai in Hawaii along with strong finishes in his last tournament in 2011 (the CIMB).

I am going to skip over Crane (analysis).  He has not missed a cut at the tournament, however, he has not placed all that well either.  Other than his 5th place finish in 2004, he hasn't broke the top 10 in the 7 times he has played this tournament since 2000.  His average finish is 38.6.  I am looking for better upside in a player this week.

The next 4 players in the list look better in terms of upside.  These players include Gay (analysis), Molder (analysis), Howell III (analysis) and Frazar (analysis).  Gay and Molder have played well in this tournament the past couple of years.  Howell III and Frazar placed 2nd last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Below are my 5 picks for the Humana Challenge :

# Player CLi 
1 Chris Kirk 11.15
2 Brian Gay 18.25
3 Bryce Molder 21.20
4 Charles Howell III 21.65
5 Harrison Frazar 21.85

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Bill Haas
  2. Martin Laird
  3. Bo van Pelt
  4. Charles Howell III
  5. Kyle Stanley
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Humana Challenge

We have 1 player in common this week: Howell III.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Humana Challenge:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Sony Open in Hawaii Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Sony Open in Hawaii to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Steve Stricker | 38 | $22,000
  2. K.J. Choi | 38 | $22,000
  3. Kevin Na | 127 (MC) | $0
  4. Charles Howell III | 2 | $363,000
  5. Rory Sabbatini | 29 | $32,756
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Steve Stricker | 38 | $22,000
  2. K.J. Choi | 38 | $22,000
  3. Zach Johnson | 54 | $12,540
  4. Charles Howell III | 2 | $363,000
  5. David Toms | 81 (MC) | $0
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$439,756$419,540TO
Avg Rank46.842.6TI
Made Cut44DRAW
Outcome----DRAW

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was a draw.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 0 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Sony Open in Hawaii

The US PGA Tour stays in Hawaii to play the first full field event of the season, the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Sony Open in Hawaii.

# Player CLi 
1 Steve Stricker 2.50
2 K.J. Choi 5.50
3 Kevin Na 7.35
4 Charles Howell III 9.60
5 John Rollins 10.90
6 Rory Sabbatini 11.10
7 Webb Simpson 15.85
8 Briny Baird 22.10
9 Jimmy Walker
25.45
10 Jerry Kelly 26.40
11 Kevin Chappell 26.60
12 Tom Pernice Jr.
27.50
13 Carl Pettersson 27.85
14 Zach Johnson 28.60
15 Jason Dufner 29.00

Last week at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, the CLi "performed" well....with the CLi calculation having 3 players in the top 5.  And looking at this week's CLi, the figures look low, which is a good sign that the CLi has some intelligence.  There are 4 of the players have CLi figures less than 10.

Thus, I am going to go with the top 4 players: Stricker (analysis), Choi (analysis), Na (analysis), and Howell III (analysis).

Rollins (analysis) is the 5th player, and his CLi figure is close to being under 10 (10.90).  However, I am looking at the player just below Rollins for my 5th pick: Rory Sabbatini (analysis).  Sabbatini has been on the island for a week already and hopefully is on Hawaii time....after being a couple of minutes late to his tee time during the 2nd round of the Hyundai Tournament of Champions last week.  His play has been consistently good on the island which is the ultimate reason I want to include him in my picks this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Sony Open in Hawaii :

# Player CLi 
1 Steve Stricker 2.50
2 K.J. Choi 5.50
3 Kevin Na 7.35
4 Charles Howell III 9.60
5 Rory Sabbatini 11.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Steve Stricker
  2. K.J. Choi
  3. Zach Johnson
  4. Charles Howell III
  5. David Toms
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Sony Open in Hawaii

We have 3 players in common this week: Stricker, Choi, and Howell II.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Sony Open in Hawaii:


Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Hyundai Tournament of Champions Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Sean O'Hair | 17 | $99,000
  2. Martin Laird | 2 | $650,000
  3. Jonathan Byrd | 3 | $369,000
  4. Steve Stricker | 1 | $1,120,000
  5. Ben Crane | 9 | $165,000
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Gary Woodland | 24 | $70,000
  2. Webb Simpson | 3 | $369,000
  3. Nick Watney | 12 | $130,000
  4. Bill Haas | 20 | $84,000
  5. David Toms | 26 | $66,000
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$2,403,000$719,000TO
Avg Rank6.417.0TO
Made Cut55DRAW
Outcome----TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 0 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Ah, this is nice to start off with such a decisive win and a lead.  3 of my 5 picks placed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.  Although this was a limited field tournament (only 28 players), a 6.4 average ranking is rather strong, with the lowest possible average being 1.8 ....if I had picked the winner and the next 4 players tied for 2nd [ (1 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2) / 5 ].  I will take 6.4, and a win against Bolton. :-)

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

We are now onto a new season, the 2012 season to be specific. So before getting into the picks, HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone.

This week the tour starts the season off with a limited field tournament in Hawaii, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Only the players that won an event in 2011 are invited to play. There are 28 players that won a tournament and accepted the invitation to play in the tournament. Of the 28 players, 12 are playing in the event for the first time (i.e. there were at least 12 first-time winners in 2011).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

# Player CLi 
1 Sean O'Hair 8.65
2 Martin Laird 8.85
3 Joanthan Byrd 9.05
4 Steve Stricker 9.85
5 Ben Crane 11.00
6 K.J. Choi 12.60
7 Lucas Glover 12.80
8 Rory Sabbatini 12.85
9 Bill Hass 14.75
10 Michael Bradley 15.35
11 Nick Watney 15.40
12 Aaron Baddeley 15.75
13 Mark Wilson 16.75
14 Bubba Watson 17.15
15 Bryce Molder 17.40

There are two factors this week that create unknowns.  One unknown factor is the 2 month layoff between the end of the 2011 season and the start of this year's season.  And the second unknown factor is that there are 12 players that have not played in this tournament before.  This makes it more difficult for people to pick who will play well, and makes computer analysis more difficult since there is less data use in formulas.  However, I am going to stick with the CLi results since it has done a rather respectable job in the past with this tournament (2011 picks, 2010 picks, 2009 picks, 2008 picks).

The top 5 players in the CLi are O'Hair (analysis), Laird (analysis), Byrd (analysis), Stricker (analysis), and Crane (analysis).  All but Crane have a CLi figure less than 10, which is a good sign that the CLi calculation / results is showing some intelligence. However, there are only 28 players in the field this week, so the CLi figures should actually be lower.  Past CLi figures for this tournament have seen the top 5 have CLi figures below 7 or have at least several players below less than 5. So it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions :

# Player CLi 
1 Sean O'Hair 8.65
2 Martin Laird 8.85
3 Jonathan Byrd 9.05
4 Steve Stricker 9.85
5 Ben Crane 11.00

As with the past 2 years, Rob Bolton is the Tour Insider, and the individual that I will compare my picks to.

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Gary Woodland
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Nick Watney
  4. Bill Haas
  5. David Toms
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Hyundai Tournament of Champions

We have 0 players in common this week.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions:


Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.