Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

We are now onto a new season, the 2012 season to be specific. So before getting into the picks, HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone.

This week the tour starts the season off with a limited field tournament in Hawaii, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Only the players that won an event in 2011 are invited to play. There are 28 players that won a tournament and accepted the invitation to play in the tournament. Of the 28 players, 12 are playing in the event for the first time (i.e. there were at least 12 first-time winners in 2011).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

# Player CLi 
1 Sean O'Hair 8.65
2 Martin Laird 8.85
3 Joanthan Byrd 9.05
4 Steve Stricker 9.85
5 Ben Crane 11.00
6 K.J. Choi 12.60
7 Lucas Glover 12.80
8 Rory Sabbatini 12.85
9 Bill Hass 14.75
10 Michael Bradley 15.35
11 Nick Watney 15.40
12 Aaron Baddeley 15.75
13 Mark Wilson 16.75
14 Bubba Watson 17.15
15 Bryce Molder 17.40

There are two factors this week that create unknowns.  One unknown factor is the 2 month layoff between the end of the 2011 season and the start of this year's season.  And the second unknown factor is that there are 12 players that have not played in this tournament before.  This makes it more difficult for people to pick who will play well, and makes computer analysis more difficult since there is less data use in formulas.  However, I am going to stick with the CLi results since it has done a rather respectable job in the past with this tournament (2011 picks, 2010 picks, 2009 picks, 2008 picks).

The top 5 players in the CLi are O'Hair (analysis), Laird (analysis), Byrd (analysis), Stricker (analysis), and Crane (analysis).  All but Crane have a CLi figure less than 10, which is a good sign that the CLi calculation / results is showing some intelligence. However, there are only 28 players in the field this week, so the CLi figures should actually be lower.  Past CLi figures for this tournament have seen the top 5 have CLi figures below 7 or have at least several players below less than 5. So it will be interesting to see what happens this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions :

# Player CLi 
1 Sean O'Hair 8.65
2 Martin Laird 8.85
3 Jonathan Byrd 9.05
4 Steve Stricker 9.85
5 Ben Crane 11.00

As with the past 2 years, Rob Bolton is the Tour Insider, and the individual that I will compare my picks to.

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Gary Woodland
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Nick Watney
  4. Bill Haas
  5. David Toms
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Hyundai Tournament of Champions

We have 0 players in common this week.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions:


Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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