Zurich Classic

The US PGA Tour is in New Orleans this week to play the Zurich Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Zurich Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	9.50
2	Nick Watney	12.25
3	David Toms	15.85
4	Rory Sabbatini	18.65
5	Chris Couch	19.80
6	Charles Howell III	24.25
7	Pat Perez	27.50
8	John Senden	30.05
9	Greg Chalmers	30.55
10	Michael Bradley	30.70
11	K.J. Choi	32.15
12	Jason Dufner	33.45
13	Charley Hoffman	33.70
14	Fred Funk	37.40
15	Jason Bohn	39.05

This week I am going to stick with the CLi rankings and pick Stricker (analysis), Watney (analysis), Toms (analysis), Sabbatini (analysis), and Couch (analysis). It is simple for me this week.

Of note, Toms is a Louisana native. So it would be good for him to show off in front of a home crowd with a good finish.

As welll, it is Watney's and Couch's birthday this week. Watney turned 30 on Monday (yesterday), and Couch will turn 38 on Sunday. Maybe their birthday celebrations will spur them onto to good finishes; for Watney, to continue his stellar year, and for Couch, to continue to his solid and consisten play.

Below are my 5 picks for the Zurich Classic :

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	9.50
2	Nick Watney	12.25
3	David Toms	15.85
4	Rory Sabbatini	18.65
5	Chris Couch	19.80

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Justin Rose
2. Nick Watney
3. Steve Stricker
4. Luke Donald
5. Charley Hoffman

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Zurich Classic

We have 2 players in common this week: Watney and Stricker

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Zurich Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

The Heritage Review

It is now time to review the picks for The Heritage to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Luke Donald | 2 | $615,600
2. Aaron Baddeley | 14 | $91,200
3. Matt Kuchar | 21 | $52,060
4. Jim Furyk | 21 | $52,060
5. Webb Simpson | 14 | $91,200

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Aaron Baddeley | 14 | $91,200
2. Luke Donald | 2 | $615,600
3. Jim Furyk | 21 | $52,060
4. Matt Kuchar | 21 | $52,060
5. Ricky Barnes | 4 | $250,800

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$902,120	$1,061,720	TI
Avg Rank	14.4	12.4	TI
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 4 wins to the Tour Outsider, 11 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

This tournament was one of our best. Although neither one of us had a winner (we were close, Donald lost in the playoff to Snedeker), an average ranking of 12.4 and 14.4 is rather good. This is even when Furyk had a bad final round (he moved from 2nd to 21s with his 76). If Furyk had finished 2nd, we would have both had an average ranking of less than 11. That is pretty good when picking 5 players in a tournament.

BTW: 1.8 is the lowest average ranking you can possibly get. To get a ranking of 1.8, you would have to pick the winner, and then have the other 4 players finish 2nd. Without ties, the lowest ranking is 3. This is where each player is ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in the tournament respectively. But then again, I am only dreaming that could happen.

The Heritage

East coast, here we come again! The US PGA Tour is back on the Atlantic this week to play The Heritage on Hilton Head Island.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for The Heritage.

#	Player	CLi
1	Luke Donald	1.85
2	Aaron Baddeley	15.25
3	Matt Kuchar	15.35
4	Jim Furyk	15.50
5	Webb Simpson	21.50
6	Charles Howell III	24.80
7	Fredrik Jacobson	26.70
8	Steve Marino	28.15
9	Jason Day	28.60
10	Jerry Kelly	30.35
11	Brian Davis	31.20
12	Bo Van Pelt	31.60
13	Brian Gay	32.35
14	Ben Crane	35.70
15	Scott Verplank	35.90

This week shows another clear favorite in Luke Donald [ analysis ]. Donald has a CLi figure of 1.85, with the next closest player, Baddeley, having a CLi of 15.25. So combined with the low CLi and the distance from the next player, Donald is a player that I should not pass up. Thus, he is my first pick.

Then looking down the list, I am going to stick with the CLi rankings: Baddeley [ analysis ], Kuchar [ analysis ], Furyk [ analysis ], and Simpson [ analysis ]. All 4 of these players play well on tight courses like Harbor Town Links.  (And interesting enough, I believe these players are "slow" players.  If that is the case, I wonder if "slow" players play better on short courses?  Just a thought.)

Below are my 5 picks for The Heritage :

#	Player	CLi
1	Luke Donald	1.85
2	Aaron Baddeley	15.25
3	Matt Kuchar	15.35
4	Jim Furyk	15.50
5	Webb Simpson	21.50

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Aaron Baddeley
2. Luke Donald
3. Jim Furyk
4. Matt Kuchar
5. Ricky Barnes

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: The Heritage

We have 4 players in common this week: Baddeley, Donald, Furyk, and Kuchar. It could have very easily been 5 players the same, as Webb Simpson, my 5th pick, was Bolton's 6th pick. Instead, he picked Barnes. So for me, let's go Webb!!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for The Heritage:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Valero Texas Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Valero Texas Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Scott Verplank | 59 | $13,392
2. Adam Scott | 23 | $52,257
3. Marc Leishman | 113 (MC) | $0
4. Charley Hoffman | 2 | $545,600
5. Fredrick Jacobson | 5 | $226,300

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Ryan Palmer | 104 (MC) | $0
2. Adam Scott | 23 | $52,257
3. Jimmy Walker | 79 (MC) | $0
4. Bo Van Pelt | 59 | $13,392
5. Spencer Levin | 92 (MC) | $0

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$837,549	$65,649	TO
Avg Rank	40.4	71.4	TO
Made Cut	4	2	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was a draw.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 4 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

Yeah baby! I am now ahead of the "draws". :-) Watch out Bolton, I am on the come back.

Valero Texas Open

After an exciting week in Augusta at The Masters, the US PGA Tour goes back to Texas to play the Valero Texas Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Valero Texas Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Scott Verplank	13.75
2	Adam Scott	17.75
3	Marc Leishman	21.95
4	Garth Mulroy	22.05
5	Charley Hoffman	22.15
6	Fredrik Jacobson	22.90
7	Brandt Jobe	25.20
8	John Merrick	25.75
9	J.J. Henry	27.75
10	Bo Van Pelt	31.60
11	Brian Gay	32.45
12	Chad Campbell	33.55
13	Michael Thompson	35.10
14	Martin Laird	35.15
15	Justin Leonard	35.15

There is no clear favorite this week, since there are no players with a CLi figure below 10 or a CLi figure that is clearly different from the next player in the rankings. So this makes it more of an art (than a skill) in picking players for this tournament.

My "art" says to pick the first 3 players in the list, skip over Mulroy, and pick the next 2 players (a short answer to a sophisticated question :-) ).

Below are my 5 picks for the Valero Texas Open :

#	Player	CLi
1	Scott Verplank	13.75
2	Adam Scott	17.75
3	Marc Leishman	21.95
4	Charley Hoffman	22.15
5	Fredrik Jacobson	22.90

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Ryan Palmer
2. Adam Scott
3. Jimmy Walker
4. Bo Van Pelt
5. Spencer Levin

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Valero Texas Open

We have 1 player in common this week: Scott.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Valero Texas Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

The Masters Review

It is now time to review the picks for The Masters to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Nick Watney | 46 | $25,600
2. Phil Mickelson | 27 | $53,250
3. Matt Kuchar | 27 | $53,250
4. Hunter Mahan | 50 (MC) | $10,000
5. Justin Rose | 11 | $176,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Phil Mickelson | 27 | $53,250
2. Nick Watney | 46 | $25,600
3. Lee Westwood | 11 | $176,000
4. Matt Kuchar | 27 | $53,250
5. Hunter Mahan | 50 (MC) | $10,000

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$318,100	$318,100	DRAW
Avg Rank	32.2	32.2	DRAW
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	DRAW

The Total Earnings category was a draw.

The Avg Rank category was a draw.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

And this tournament overall was a draw -- a bland end to an exciting tournament. The real winner was Schwartzel, who pulled through down the stretch in the final round -- a very nice 66 in the final round which included an exciting first couple of holes (a chip in and hole out) and a thrilling last couple of holes (4 birdies in the final 4 holes).

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 3 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 3 draws.

The Masters

This week the US PGA Tour, and all of the other major tours around the world, focus their eyes on Augusta, Georgia (USA), as the professional golf world commences its first major of the year: The Masters.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for The Masters.

#	Player	CLi
1	Nick Watney	5.20
2	Phil Mickelson	10.60
3	Matt Kuchar	14.35
4	Hunter Mahan	17.55
5	Rory Sabbatini	18.45
6	Tim Clark	18.85
7	Fred Couples	21.45
8	Justin Rose	21.85
9	Ryan Moore	22.95
10	Tiger Woods	23.30
11	Padraig Harrington	25.10
12	Stewart Cink	25.80
13	Steve Marino	25.95
14	Lee Westwood	27.10
15	Steve Stricker	28.10

For my first 4 picks, I am going to with the CLi rankings: Watney, Mickelson, Kuchar, and Mahan.

By looking at the CLi figure, Watney is a favorite to player well this week. His CLi figure is 5.20, with the next nearest player's CLi being Mickelson at 10.60. Watney has placed 7th, 19th, and 11th the last 3 years at The Masters, which are the only 3 years he has played in the tournament. He has placed 13th, 1st, 9th, and 6th in the last 4 tournaments he has played in leading up to the tournament this year. And, in the 6 tournaments he has played in this year, 13th is the lowest he has finished.  Such a record for a player makes it difficult not to pick him. [ See analysis ]

Mickelson won last week at the Shell Houston Open, firing 63-65 on the weekend to win by 3 shots. Historically, when Mickelson wins the week before The Masters, he usually plays well the next week in The Masters.  It also helps that he has finished no lower than 24th in the last 10 playings of The Masters, having won the tournament 3 times during that period and placing in the top 10 all but one year since 2000 (he finished 24th in the 2007 Masters).  So Mickelson is in the line-up this week. [ See analysis ]

Kuchar has only played The Masters twice since 2000. Last year he finished 24th, and in 2002 he finished 61st and missed the cut. However, since 2010 his play has been very, very solid -- such solid play earned him the money title in 2010. As it relates to tournaments leading up to this week, he has finished no lower than 17th the past 4 tournaments he has played in, with finishes of 8th, 5th, 17th, and 3rd respectively. He has 6 top 10 finishes since the start of the year for the 8 tournaments he has played.  This earns Kuchar a place in the line-up this week. [ See analysis ]

Mahan is in the top 5 in CLi rankings because of his last two showings in The Masters and his solid showing in the past 4 tournaments. He finished 8th and 10th the last two years in The Masters. In the past 4 tournaments that he has played in, he has finished in the top 10 in 3 of the tournaments. He had a small blimp at the Arnold Palmer Invitation, finishing 38th. In addition, in the 9 tournaments he has played this year, he has finished in the top 10 in 6 of the tournaments and has made the cut in all of them. [ See analysis ]

I am going to skip over Sabbatini, Clark, and Couples to pick Rose for my final player this week. There is not much difference in the CLi figures between these 4 players. Clark is fighting an injury and has missed most of the year so far. Couples loves The Masters and shines at Augusta, but he is getting up in age compared to his playing competitors. With so many young guns playing well, I don't see Couples making a push over the weekend (but I want him to make the weekend, as he is a crowd favorite, and helps TV ratings).

So that leaves comparing Sabbatini with Rose. When examining the details of each of their previous finishes at The Masters, and what their record shows for the year leading up to the tournament, Rose stands out. [ See analysis for Sabbatini | See analysis for Rose ]

Below are my 5 picks for The Masters :

#	Player	CLi
1	Nick Watney	5.20
2	Phil Mickelson	10.60
3	Matt Kuchar	14.35
4	Hunter Mahan	17.55
5	Justin Rose	21.85

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Phil Mickelson
2. Nick Watney
3. Lee Westwood
4. Matt Kuchar
5. Hunter Mahan

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: The Masters

We have 4 players in common this week: Mickelson, Watney, Kuchar, and Mahan.

The difference is Rose and Westwood, both Englishman. I have Rose, and Bolton has Westwood. Let's go Justin (Rose)!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for The Masters:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Shell Houston Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Shell Houston Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Matt Kuchar | 8 | $159,300
2. Stuart Appleby | 110 (MC) | $0
3. Lee Westwood | 30 | $35,843
4. Johnson Wagner | 36 | $27,189
5. Steve Stricker | 4 | $259,600

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Marc Leishman | 66 | $11,918
2. Matt Kuchar | 8 | $159,300
3. Steve Marino | 66 | $11,918
4. Jason Day | 81 (MC) | $0
5. Lucas Glover | 97 (MC) | $0

 Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$481,932	$183,136	TO
Avg Rank	37.6	63.6	TO
Made Cut	4	3	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 3 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

Hey, look, Bolton gave me a little bit of light in this year's competition. Boy, it is nice to win a tournament again, especially the week going into The Masters. Maybe this will give me some confidence going forward. :-)