Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Tour Outsider: U.S. Open Review

[ I am late in posting the review this week. Things have been hectic the past several days as GolfInvestors has gotten close to 10,000 users visting the site to get the results of the U.S. Open. ]

It is now time to review the picks for the U.S. Open Championship to see how the results turned out. It was a wonderful tournament, for spectators, fans and the press alike. It was very good for the sport of golf worldwide.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Phil Mickelson 7.40 18 47 35 12 $87,230
2 S Vijay Singh 13.70 65 70 65 12 $16,514
3 S Sergio Garcia 17.00 18 11 35 85 $87,230
4 S Stewart Cink 20.90 14 47 22 19 $122,159
5 S Geoff Ogilvy 21.50 9 4 9 3 $160,769

I didn't pick the winner, who was Woods. But the overall results were nice for the picks. I had one top 10 (Ogilivy - 9th), 3 of them were in the top 25 (which is good for a major), and all the players made the cut (this is very good for the difficult U.S. Open).

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

Shedloski got hurt when Donald withdrew in the final round due to a wrist injury. Donald was in the top 10 starting the final round. WD put Donald back in 156th place.

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $473,902 $2,161,131 TI
Avg Rank 24.8 37.8 TO
Made Cut 5 4 TO
Outcome -- -- TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Tour Outsider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was won Tour Outsider.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

I won the event because Shedloski's Donald pick withdrew in the final round. If Donald just finished the final round, Shedloski would have won all of the categories this week. Instead, I take home the trophy this week.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 14 wins to the Tour Outsider, 7 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 S Phil Mickelson 7.40 18 47 35 12 $87,230
2 S Vijay Singh 13.70 65 70 65 12 $16,514
3 S Anthony Kim 14.90 26 24 65 49 $61,252
4 S Sergio Garcia 17.00 18 11 35 85 $87,230
5 S Justin Leonard 20.20 36 47 42 64 $35,709
6 S Stewart Cink 20.90 14 47 22 19 $122,159
7 S Geoff Ogilvy 21.50 9 4 9 3 $160,769
8 S Stephen Ames 23.50 58 70 49 49 $18,664
9 S Jim Furyk 27.60 36 19 22 49 $35,709
10 S Robert Allenby 28.70 18 6 9 7 $87,230
11 S Ryuji Imada 29.80 18 24 65 49 $87,230
12 S Tim Clark 30.10 48 24 22 31 $23,985
13 S Boo Weekley 31.20 26 24 65 31 $61,252
14 S Mike Weir 31.20 18 11 42 31 $87,230
15 S Tiger Woods 32.00 1 1 2 19 $1,350,000

Posted by at 9:34 AM

5 comments:

  1. LOL...you got crushed this week by the TI (with TI having Ogilvy and Woods). Even though Donald withdrew, HE STILL MADE THE CUT so that should be 5-5 on that front. That makes it 2-1 as far as the categories go in favor of TI.

    Donald made the cut and then got injured and could not finish...that's still a made cut as far as the PGA Tour counts "consecutive made cuts" for records purposes.
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  2. True, it is crazy that I won this week because Donald WDed for TI.

    Even if you count the WD of Donald, we would have tied, as all of my players made the cut. So it would have been a draw, not a win by TI.

    However, a WD is a WD and Donald was paid money for showing up and missing the cut, not making the cut (i.e. $2,000). When a player does not finish all 4 rounds, that is a missed cut, wd, dns, etc in my books. It is not a made cut.

    Not that I am trying to support the win this week, but am just trying to be consistent throughout each week so the data is legit and not fudged. If this changes now, then I would have won several tournaments where the TI won in the past because of my players WD on day 3 or 4 of a tournament.
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  3. Well, then you should call it a tie, not a win. Even calling it a tie seems suspect (IMO), but based on the rules you are following it should technically be a tie.

    Getting back to the WD=MadeCut discussion, it is certainly a made cut in the eyes of the PGA (and I think it makes the most sense to look at the PGA's book and not your book on this matter...since the PGA has strict rules and follows them to a T). Just check out Donald's results on his player page (http://www.pgatour.com/players/r/?/02/39/83/results). 11 tournaments and 8 made cuts. The cuts he didn't make were earlier this year. Even the PGA counts it as a made cut (and they should since he DID MAKE THE CUT). You are right that he was paid the same money as those not making the cut, but that doesn't mean he missed the cut (the PGA pays those who made the cut and withdrew in the final round due to injury the same money as those not making the cut, but that shouldn't confuse us as to thinking that the player actually missed the cut).

    You should really revise the outcome and call it a tie based on the rules you created for this weekly comparison, although it is pretty evident that the TI had much better picks for the US Open in general.
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  4. Why would even calling it a tie be suspect? Are you just looking at the earnings column?
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  5. If you read through the "review" postings since day one of the blog, you will see that the categories have always been "Earnings", "Average Rank" and "Made Cut". I don't just look at earnings.

    If a person was going to pick one player, then I would look at earnings. However, TI picks 5 players and sets the rules in that regards. So each one of picks a TEAM of 5 players.

    Since there is more than one player on our teams, I have been looking at 3 categories to compare our results. These categories look at multiple faucets of the results. Earnings, Average Rankings, and Made Cut are the 3 things I decided on as I felt that was the best way to determine all around who's TEAM of picks were better.

    As with the US Open, where TI (Shedloski) won the earnings and I won the other two, he has won tournaments when I won the earnings. Look through the results and you will see that.

    Yes, it is weird that I won this week. However, a tournament is 4 days, it is just not 3 days. It is 72 holes, not 71 holes. A player must complete all 72 holes. The US PGA Tour is rather strict on that I believe. They do not waiver in that regards.

    In any event, the "Made Cut" category means making the cut and finishing the tournament. It means anything but missed cut, wd, or dns. Donald WDed. He didn't finish the tournament.

    Also, the PGA didn't put a rank on his finish. But I guarantee it would not have been a rank before the players that missed the cut. Rather it would be a rank above the rank of the players that missed the cut. So TI lost the Rank Average category as well.

    I still disagree with you, and the US PGA Tour, in that if a player doesn't finish the tournament, they didn't make the cut. What I should probably do is change the category from "Made Cut" to "Finish Tournament".

    Since you say the US PGA Tour is consistent in their statistics, do you have figures from the 1980s or 1990s where the US PGA Tour differentials between a WD and a Made Cut. If I am not mistaken, I believe the US PGA Tour use to count a WD not as a Made Cut. It is only within the last 10-15 years that they have changed that.
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