Thursday, August 30, 2012

Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship

A quick and short post this week for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship, the second tournament of the FedEx Playoffs.

My picks for the tournament are:

Steve Stricker (analysis)
Jason Dufner (analysis)
Tiger Woods (analysis)
Jim Furyk (analysis)
Luke Donald (analysis)

The Tour Insider (Bolton) picks for the tournament are:

Brandt Snedeker (analysis)
Luke Donald (analysis)
Louis Oosthuizen (analysis)
Jason Dufner (analysis)
Rory McIlroy (analysis)

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Donald and Dufner

This post is short, as was last week's post for the Barclays Classic, because I am in the process of packing up and moving from Louisville to Kalamazoo. Hopefully I will be back on schedule next week...

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Barclays Classic Review


It is now time to review the picks for the Barclays Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Steve Stricker | 54 | $18,000
  2. Sergio Garcia | 3 | $464,000
  3. Tiger Woods | 38 | $32,000
  4. Justin Rose | 46 | $21,080
  5. Tim Clark | 10 | $160,889
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Rory McIlroy | 24 | $56,700
  2. Bubba Watson | 10 | $160,889
  3. Keegan Bradley | 76 (MC) | $0
  4. Tiger Woods | 38 | $32,000
  5. Justin Rose | 46 | $21,080
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$695,969$270,669TO
Avg Rank30.238.8TO
Made Cut54TO
Outcome----TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 19 wins to the Tour Outsider14 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Barclays Classic

A quick and short post this week for the Barclays Classic, the first tournament of the FedEx Playoffs.

My picks for the tournament are:

Steve Stricker (analysis)
Sergio Garcia (analysis)
Tiger Woods (analysis)
Justin Rose (analysis)
Tim Clark (analysis)

The Tour Insider (Bolton) picks for the tournament are:

Rory McIlroy (analysis)
Bubba Watson (analysis)
Keegan Bradley (analysis)
Tiger Woods (analysis)
Justin Rose (analysis)

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Woods and Rose
 

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Wyndham Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Wyndham Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Jason Bohn | 110 (MC) | $0
  2. Josh Teater | 37 | $21,320
  3. Carl Pettersson | 4 | $214,933
  4. Jerry Kelly | 50 | $12,542
  5. Webb Simpson | 22 | $48,273
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Carl Pettersson | 4 | $214,933
  2. Jason Dufner | 7 | $162,067
  3. Tim Clark | 2 | $561,600
  4. David Toms | 144 (MC) | $0
  5. Webb Simpson | 22 | $48,273
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$297,068$986,873TI
Avg Rank44.635.8TI
Made Cut44Draw
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 18 wins to the Tour Outsider, 14 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Wyndham Championship

This week the US PGA Tour heads to North Carolina to play the last tournament before the FedEx Playoffs start, the Wyndham Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Wyndham Championship.

# Player
CLi
1 Jason Bohn 5.00
2 Josh Teater 11.60
3 Carl Pettersson 13.55
4 Tim Clark 16.45
5 Jerry Kelly 17.10
6 Webb Simpson 17.30
7 Daniel Summerhays 17.45
8 Brandt Snedeker 27.95
9 Kevin Streelman 29.65
10 Bud Cauley 32.30
11 John Mallinger 32.80
12 Alexandre Rocha 32.85
13 Bill Haas 33.80
14 David Toms 34.40
15 Jeffrey Overton 36.00

I am going to go with the first 3 players in the CLi rankings: Bohn (analysis), Teater (analysis), and Pettersson (analysis).

Bohn has only played in this event 5 times since 2004. However, in those 5 events, he has two 2nd place finishes and a 3rd place finish.  He finished 12th and 27th the other 2 times he played in the event.  He placed 19th in the Reno-Tahoe Open last week, and 2nd in the True South Classic a month ago.

Teater is on a streak of solid finishes coming into this tournament, finishing 7th, 4th, and 9th in the past three events.  He has also played well in this event the two times he has played in it, finishing 25th (in 2011) and 18th (in 2010).

Pettersson played well last week at the PGA Championship, even after having to deal with a 2 stroke penalty during the final round that could have derailed him.  His solid ball striking and focus mentally pulled him through the final round to be able to finish 3rd.  He likes this tournament, as he has won it in 2008 and finished 4th last year.

I am going to skip over Clark (analysis), even though he is a good pick.  The reason is that I want to be able to pick Kelly (analysis) and Simpson (analysis).

Kelly has played in this event 10 times since 2000, missing the event only in 2009 and 2007.  In the 10 times he has played the event, he has only missed the cut once (in 2006).  He has finished in the top 10 five times, with two 4th place finishes (in 2011 and 2001).  After a rough April and May, Kelly has turned up his play, and hasn't missed a cut since May.  In the 5 events he has played in since May, he has yet to break the top 10, but has and 12th place finish (Greenbrier Classic and a 13th place finish (True South Classic).

Simpson won this event last year, and placed 8th the year before.  He missed the cut last week at the PGA Championship.  However, his 3 previous tournaments before the PGA Championship included a 7th place finish at the Greenbrier Classic, and 29th finish at the Travelers Championship, and a win at the U.S. Open.

Below are my 5 picks for the Wyndham Championship:

# Player
CLi
1 Jason Bohn 5.00
2 Josh Teater 11.60
3 Carl Pettersson 13.55
4 Jerry Kelly 17.10
5 Webb Simpson 17.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Carl Pettersson
  2. Jason Dufner
  3. Tim Clark
  4. David Toms
  5. Webb Simpson
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Wyndham Championship

We have 2 players in common this tournament: Pettersson and Simpson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Wyndham Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

PGA Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the PGA Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Keegan Bradley | 3 | $384,500
  2. Tiger Woods | 11 | $143,286
  3. Jason Dufner | 27 | $51,900
  4. Steve Stricker | 7 | $226,000
  5. Matt Kuchar | 104 (MC) | $0
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Louis Oosthuizen | 21 | $72,667
  2. Jason Dufner | 27 | $51,900
  3. Tiger Woods | 11 | $143,286
  4. Graeme McDowell | 11 | $143,286
  5. Bubba Watson | 11 | $143,286
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$805,686$554,425TO
Avg Rank30.416.2TI
Made Cut45TI
Outcome----TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 18 wins to the Tour Outsider, 13 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

I had the lowest finisher, with Bradley finishing 3rd. That gave me the higher figure in earnings. However, with Kuchar missing the cut, I lost out in this tournament.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

PGA Championship

This week the US PGA Tour plays the last of the four majors, the PGA Championship. The championship is being played at Kiawah Island Golf Resort in South Carolina.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the PGA Championship.

# Player
CLi
1 Keegan Bradley 2.80
2 Tiger Woods 5.90
3 Jason Dufner 8.60
4 Scott Piercy 10.90
5 Ernie Els 15.10
6 Zach Johnson 15.40
7 Steve Stricker 16.50
8 Matt Kuchar 19.20
9 Francesco Molinari 19.30
10 John Senden 20.00
11 Rory McIlroy 23.10
12 Adam Scott 24.10
13 Luke Donald 24.60
14 Alexander Noren 25.20
15 Dustin Johnson 26.40

I am going to go with the first 3 players in the CLi rankings: Bradley (analysis), Woods (analysis), and Dufner (analysis).

Before last week, Bradley had been struggling in terms of his finishes. However, he closed with a 62 in the Bridgestone Invitational last week to over take Furyk, who double bogeyed the last hole to lose to Bradley.  With his win last week, and his win last year in the PGA Championship, it could bode well for a good finish for him this week at Kiawah Island.  And in the end, his CLi figure is very low (2.80).

Woods didn't show his good stuff last week at the Bridgestone Invitational in the first two rounds, shooting two-over par.  However, he relaxed during the weekend of the tournament and shot 68 and 66.  He worked on a few things during the weekend, and with confidence garnered from his early rounds in the last two majors (the U.S. Open and the British Open), he might be able to keep it low (both in terms of score and ball flight, which is important on a windy course like Kiawah Island) and place well in the final major of the year.  It doesn't hurt his confidence that he has already won 3 tournaments this year.

Since losing in a playoff last year to Bradley in this event, Dufner has been around on the weekends during the three previous majors this year.  His demeanor is an advantage on difficult courses like Kiawah Island.  Plus, it doesn't hurt his confidence that he has won twice this year and placed 7th last week at the Bridgestone Invitational.

I am skipping over Piercy (analysis).  He has shown some good play the past several months.  However, he is inexperienced in playing in majors and on venues like Kiawah Island.

I am also skipping over Els (analysis), one of my favorite players, and Johnson (analysis).  Winning the British Open could be a kickstarter for a strong finish in end of seasons tournaments for Els.  However, in the last two tournaments he played in since winning the British Open, he has not placed or played well.  And although Kiawah Island might be a good course for him as it is similar to a British Open layout, it is difficult for me to pick him this week.

For Johnson, he has been up and down since winning the John Deere a month ago.  He did place 9th in the British Open, which is a tournament that provides similar conditions as Kiawah Island.  However, his 40th place finish last week at the Bridgestone Invitational, in relatively easy conditions, makes me wonder if he is tiring out.

For my final two picks, I am going to pick Stricker (analysis) and Kuchar (analysis).  Fellow UIllinois alumni, Stricker, placed second last week in the Bridgestone Invitational.  Prior to last week, he had finished 23rd (British Open) and 5th (John Deere).  In addition, he has only missed one cut this year (at the PLAYERS Championship).  In the past two PGA Championships, he has placed 12th and 18th.  These are solid results for this tournament and the year.  The question will be if his neck will hold up after playing four tournaments in the past 4-5 weeks.

Kuchar placed 8th last week at the Bridgestone Invitational and 9th at the British Open 3 weeks ago.  Those results sandwiched his 34th finish at the  Canadian Open, which might be a concern.  However, he has yet to miss a cut this year.  He has two solid finishes in the PGA Championship the last two years, placing 19th last year and 10th the year before.

Below are my 5 picks for the PGA Championship:

# Player
CLi
1 Keegan Bradley 2.80
2 Tiger Woods 5.90
3 Jason Dufner 8.60
4 Steve Stricker 16.50
5 Matt Kuchar 19.20

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Louis Oosthuizen
  2. Jason Dufner
  3. Tiger Woods
  4. Graeme McDowell
  5. Bubba Watson
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: PGA Championship

We have 2 players in common this tournament: Dufner and Woods

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the PGA Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 20% 20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 10% 10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Reno-Tahoe Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Reno-Tahoe Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Billy Hoerschel | 26 | $22,200
  2. Josh Teater | 7 | $114,000
  3. J.J. Henry | 1 | $540,000
  4. Troy Matteson | 107 (MC) | $0
  5. Rod Pampling | 54 | $6,810
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Seung-yul Noh | 31 | $17,400
  2. Chris Kirk | 26 | $22,200
  3. Josh Teater | 7 | $114,000
  4. John Rollins | 43 | $9,900
  5. Pat Perez | 120 (MC) | $0
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$683,010$163,500TO
Avg Rank39.045.4TO
Made Cut44DRAW
Outcome----TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 18 wins to the Tour Outsider, 12 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

I will take the win in this tournament, and so will Henry :-)

In looking at the rest of the season, there are 10 tournaments left to play. With a 6 tournament lead at this point in the season, this is the best position I have been in against Bolton (whom I have competed against in the two previous years). Let's see if I can hold on for the season win.

Bridgestone Invitational Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Bridgestone Invitational to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.
  1. Bo Van Pelt | 8 | $128,750
  2. Zach Johnson | 40 | $59,000
  3. Tiger Woods | 8 | $128,750
  4. Hunter Mahan | 55 | $46,500
  5. Francesco Molinari | 40 | $59,000
Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.
  1. Tiger Woods | 8 | $128,750
  2. Zach Johnson | 40 | $59,000
  3. Adam Scott | 45 | $53,000
  4. Lee Westwood | 70 | $42,000
  5. Luke Donald | 8 | $128,750
Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.


Tour OutsiderTour InsiderWinner
Total Earnings$422,000$411,500TO
Avg Rank30.234.2TO
Made Cut55DRAW
Outcome----TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 17 wins to the Tour Outsider, 12 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

I edged out a win, having only $10,500 more in total earnings in this tournament than Bolton.  The difference was in Westwood's finish.  He crashed down the leaderboard to 70th during the 3rd round with an 81.  The players that I picked and which were in the middle of the leaderboard for most of the tournament held strong over the weekend.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Reno-Tahoe Open

This post is for the Reno-Tahoe Open. [ with the US PGA Tour sanctioning two tournaments this week, another post is dedicated to the Bridgestone Invitational ]

I am going to make this post short and sweet.  Here are my 5 picks for the Reno-Tahoe Open.

  1. Billy Horschel
  2. Josh Teater
  3. J.J. Henry
  4. Troy Matteson
  5. Rod Pampling
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Seung-yul Noh
  2. Chris Kirk
  3. Josh Teater
  4. John Rollins
  5. Pat Perez
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Reno-Tahoe Open

We have 1 player in common this tournament: Teater

Bridgestone Invitational

This week the US PGA Tour is sanctioning two tournaments. One is a world golf champsionship, the Bridgestone Invitational, and the other one is the Reno Tahoe Open. This post is for the Bridgestone Invitational.

There is something different about Blogger (the blogging system I use) which is not allowing me to past tables into my posts.  So I can't past a properly formatted table in this post to show the top 15 players in the CLi rankings.  Thus, I am just going to list out my 5 picks for the Bridgestone Invitational, which just so happen to be the top 5 in the CLi rankings as well.

Below are my 5 picks for the Bridgestone Invitational:

  1. Bo Van Pelt
  2. Zach Johnson
  3. Tiger Woods
  4. Hunter Mahan
  5. Francesco Molinari

Van Pelt (analysis) has played in this event twice and finished 23rd and 3rd.  He finished 7th last week in the RBC Canadian Open, 7th in the AT&T National, and 24th in the Travellers --- all decent finishes.  The one bleep in his recent results is the missed cut at the British Open two weeks ago.

Johnson (analysis) has an average finish of 18.5 in this tournament since 2004, with his best finished being 6th last year.  He won the John Deere Classic three weeks ago, and finished 9th in his last outing (British Open).

Woods (analysis) has won this tournament four times in the past decade.  With three wins this year, and a recent 3rd place finish at the British Open, he should continue his solid play this week.

Mahan (analysis) won this event in 2010.  Prior to that, he finished 4th and 10th. Last year was an off year for him in this event, as he finished 37th.  He comes into this event playing steady, but not necessarily his best golf.  He has finished 48th (RBC Canadian Open) and 19th (British Open) in the past two events he has played in.  Prior to those two events he placed 8th (AT&T National) and 11th (Travelers Championship).

Molinari (analysis) has played this event twice, finishing 15th (in 2011) and 39th (in 2010).  He comes into this event with two 2nd place finishes since early July.

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Tiger Woods
  2. Zach Johnson
  3. Adam Scott
  4. Lee Westwood
  5. Luke Donald
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Bridgestone Invitational

We have 2 players in common this tournament: Woods and Johnson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Bridgestone Invitational:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.