Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Wyndham Championship

This week the US PGA Tour heads to North Carolina to play the last tournament before the FedEx Playoffs start, the Wyndham Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Wyndham Championship.

# Player
CLi
1 Jason Bohn 5.00
2 Josh Teater 11.60
3 Carl Pettersson 13.55
4 Tim Clark 16.45
5 Jerry Kelly 17.10
6 Webb Simpson 17.30
7 Daniel Summerhays 17.45
8 Brandt Snedeker 27.95
9 Kevin Streelman 29.65
10 Bud Cauley 32.30
11 John Mallinger 32.80
12 Alexandre Rocha 32.85
13 Bill Haas 33.80
14 David Toms 34.40
15 Jeffrey Overton 36.00

I am going to go with the first 3 players in the CLi rankings: Bohn (analysis), Teater (analysis), and Pettersson (analysis).

Bohn has only played in this event 5 times since 2004. However, in those 5 events, he has two 2nd place finishes and a 3rd place finish.  He finished 12th and 27th the other 2 times he played in the event.  He placed 19th in the Reno-Tahoe Open last week, and 2nd in the True South Classic a month ago.

Teater is on a streak of solid finishes coming into this tournament, finishing 7th, 4th, and 9th in the past three events.  He has also played well in this event the two times he has played in it, finishing 25th (in 2011) and 18th (in 2010).

Pettersson played well last week at the PGA Championship, even after having to deal with a 2 stroke penalty during the final round that could have derailed him.  His solid ball striking and focus mentally pulled him through the final round to be able to finish 3rd.  He likes this tournament, as he has won it in 2008 and finished 4th last year.

I am going to skip over Clark (analysis), even though he is a good pick.  The reason is that I want to be able to pick Kelly (analysis) and Simpson (analysis).

Kelly has played in this event 10 times since 2000, missing the event only in 2009 and 2007.  In the 10 times he has played the event, he has only missed the cut once (in 2006).  He has finished in the top 10 five times, with two 4th place finishes (in 2011 and 2001).  After a rough April and May, Kelly has turned up his play, and hasn't missed a cut since May.  In the 5 events he has played in since May, he has yet to break the top 10, but has and 12th place finish (Greenbrier Classic and a 13th place finish (True South Classic).

Simpson won this event last year, and placed 8th the year before.  He missed the cut last week at the PGA Championship.  However, his 3 previous tournaments before the PGA Championship included a 7th place finish at the Greenbrier Classic, and 29th finish at the Travelers Championship, and a win at the U.S. Open.

Below are my 5 picks for the Wyndham Championship:

# Player
CLi
1 Jason Bohn 5.00
2 Josh Teater 11.60
3 Carl Pettersson 13.55
4 Jerry Kelly 17.10
5 Webb Simpson 17.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Carl Pettersson
  2. Jason Dufner
  3. Tim Clark
  4. David Toms
  5. Webb Simpson
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Wyndham Championship

We have 2 players in common this tournament: Pettersson and Simpson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Wyndham Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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