Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Reno-Tahoe Open

This week the US PGA Tour has two events taking place: 1) The Bridgestone Invitational, and 2) The Reno-Tahoe Open.  This post is for the Reno-Tahoe Open, which is taking place in between Reno, Nevada and Tahoe, California at the Jack Nicklaus-designed Montreux Golf Club (a course that I scouted and the company did work on).  The event is a modified Stableford format.

[ View the Bridgestone Invitational post ]

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Reno-Tahoe Open.

# Player CLi 
1  J.J. Henry 6.70
2  Chad Campbell 7.85
3  Mark Wilson 10.35
4  Nick O'Hern 11.60
5  Jim Herman 13.15
6  Glen Day 16.55
7  Bryce Molder 16.60
8  Bill Lunde 17.85
9  Tom Pernice Jr 19.40
10  Stuart Appleby 20.15
11  Tag Ridings 20.30
12  Andres Romero 20.50
13  Alexander Cejka 20.70
14  Cameron Beckman 23.65
15  Matt Bettencourt 23.70

I am going to stick with the top 3 in the CLi rankings (Henry, Campbell, and Wilson), but will skip down to pick Lunde and Appleby for my final two picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the Reno-Tahoe Open:

# Player CLi 
1  J.J. Henry 6.70
2  Chad Campbell 7.85
3  Mark Wilson 10.35
4  Bill Lunde 17.85
5  Stuart Appleby 20.15

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Mark Wilson
  2. Rory Sabbatini
  3. J.J. Henry
  4. Russell Knox
  5. Chad Campbell
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Reno-Tahoe Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Wilson, Henry, and Campbell.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Reno-Tahoe Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Bridgestone Invitational

This week the US PGA Tour has two events taking place: 1) The Bridgestone Invitational, and 2) The Reno-Tahoe Open.  This post is for the Bridgestone Invitational, which is taking place in Akron, Ohio and is played on the Firestone Country Club.

[ View the Reno-Tahoe Open post ]

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Bridgestone Invitational.

# Player CLi 
1  Steve Stricker 8.35
2  Zach Johnson 11.25
3  Phil Mickelson 13.20
4  Keegan Bradley 15.70
5  Jason Dufner 16.00
6  Bubba Watson 17.20
7  Paul Casey 17.35
8  Justin Rose 18.05
9  Angel Cabrera 18.20
10  Tiger Woods 18.75
11  Matt Kuchar 19.90
12  Bill Haas 19.95
13  Jason Day 20.20
14  Ryan Moore 20.90
15  Adam Scott 21.50

I am going to stick with the top 5 in the Golf CLi rankings.

Stricker (analysis) finished 2nd last year in this event, and has finished no worse than 14th since 2009.  Playing a limited schedule this year (has only played 8 tournaments since the beginning of the year), he has not missed a cut and has finished in the top-10 five times with two second place finishes (Cadillac Championship and Hyundai Tournament of Champions).

Johnson (analysis) has finished in the top-16 of this tournament five times since 2004, with an average ranking of 20.9.  In his last two tournaments he has finished 6th (British Open) and 2nd (John Deere Classic --- losing in a playoff to Jordan Speith).

Mickelson (analysis) doesn't necessary play well at this tournament, having an average rank of 41.6 since 2003 with a low finish of 4th.  However, prior to 2003 he finished 9th (2002), 8th (2001), and 4th (2000).  He is playing well leading up to the tournament (2 wins in his last two outings -- the British Open and the Scottish Open), which could lead to a good finish this week at Firestone.

Bradley (analysis) won this event last year and placed 15th in 2011 (he has only played the event twice).  With a strong finish at the British Open several weeks ago (placed 15th) and an 18th placed finish at the Travelers Championship in mid-June, he could be riding a wave of confidence this week.

Dufner (analysis) finished 7th in this event last year, and had a 26th and 4th place finishes in the British Open and the U.S. Open this summer.  Although these are great finishes, they are definitely solid finishes in tough tournaments.  This could be a sign that he will play well this week at Firestone.

Below are my 5 picks for the Bridgestone Invitational:

# Player CLi 
1  Steve Stricker 8.35
2  Zach Johnson 11.25
3  Phil Mickelson 13.20
4  Keegan Bradley 15.70
5  Jason Dufner 16.00

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Tiger Woods
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Henrik Stenson
  4. Bill Haas
  5. Lee Westwood
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Bridgestone Invitational

We have 0 players in common in this tournament.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Bridgestone Invitational:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

RBC Canadian Open

Canada holds its own major tournament this week: RBC Canadian Open.  The event is being played in Oakville, Ontario at Glen Abby Golf Club, a Jack Nicklaus design.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the RBC Canadian Open.

# Player CLi 
1  Daniel Summerhays 16.00
2  Andres Romero 16.70
3  Chris Kirk 17.40
4  Martin Flores 19.20
5  Chez Reavie 19.70
6  J.J. Henry 21.90
7  Nicholas Thompson 21.90
8  Woody Austin 22.00
9  Morgan Hoffmann 24.30
10  Jason Kokrak 26.20
11  Chad Campbell 28.60
12  Chris Stroud 35.30
13  James Driscoll 35.40
14  Ryan Palmer 36.30
15  Charlie Wi 37.60

Below are my 5 picks for the RBC Canadian Open:

# Player CLi 
1  Daniel Summerhays 16.00
2  Andres Romero 16.70
3  Martin Flores 19.20
4  Chez Reavie 19.70
5  Nicholas Thompson 21.90

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Brandt Snedeker
  2. Matt Kuchar
  3. Hunter Mahan
  4. Graeme DeLaet
  5. Charl Schwartzel
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: RBC Canadian Open

We have 0 players in common this week.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the RBC Canadian Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
520%20%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
3010%10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

British Open

The third major of the year is upon us: The British Open. The game's oldest major, the British Open is being played at Muirfield Golf Links this year.  Muirfield is a classic course. The British Open has previously been held at the course 15 times since 1892.  Over the past 35 years, the winners of the British Open when it was played at Muirfield have been Tom Watson in 1980, Nick Faldo in 1987 and 1992, and Ernie Els in 2002.  At the end of this week, another prime championship shall be crowned.  Enjoy the week of competition!!!

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the British Open.

# Player CLi 
1  Phil Mickelson 13.80
2  Ernie Els 14.40
3  Thomas Bjorn 15.80
4  Harris English 21.30
5  Henrik Stenson 21.90
6  Tiger Woods 25.50
7  Zach Johnson 25.90
8  Rickie Fowler 29.30
9  Keegan Bradley 30.50
10  Bill Haas 31.00
11  Webb Simpson 31.90
12  Justin Rose 32.00
13  Nicolas Colsaerts 34.80
14  Boo Weekley 35.40
15  Louis Oosthuizen 35.60

No player has a CLi figure less than 10.  This is an indication that my CLi calculation can't easily determine which players will play well this week -- i.e. it is difficult to pick which players will play well in the British Open.  Thus, my work is cut out for me...and the players this week.

I am going to go with the first two players in the CLi rankings: Mickelson (analysis) and Els (analysis). Mickelson won the Scottish Open last week, need I say more; he has a record of playing well in a major when he wins the week before -- case in point is with his record at the Masters.  Maybe that trend will continue this week at the British Open.

Els won the event last year, and he won the BMW International Open several weeks ago. However, on the down side, he missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open and few players have won back-to-back British Opens.

I am going to skip over Bjorn (analysis) and English (analysis). Bjorn has been playing well this year.  However, he withdrew after the 1st round of the Scottish Open last week.  I am not sure why he withdrew, but if it is for an injury, that would make it tough to pick him this week.  English won his first U.S. PGA Tour event last month in Memphis, and has played solidly in several tournaments after that.  However, he lacks the experience in a major like the British Open, which is important this week -- the conditions can be mentally grueling at the British Open, especially for a youngster.

My next pick is Stenson (analysis).  Although he didn't play in the event last year, he has two 3rd place finishes in the previous four years -- in 2010 and 2008.  He is playing well leading up to this week having finished 3rd last week in the Scottish Open and 10th in the BMW International Open in late June.

For my final two picks, I am going to skip over Woods (analysis) to pick Johnson (analysis) and Fowler (analysis).

Below are my 5 picks for the British Open:

# Player CLi 
1  Phil Mickelson 13.80
2  Ernie Els 14.40
3  Henrik Stenson 21.90
4  Zach Johnson 25.90
5  Rickie Fowler 29.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Phil Mickelson
  2. Tiger Woods
  3. Justin Rose
  4. Ernie Els
  5. Graeme McDowell
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: British Open

We have 2 players in common this week: Mickelson and Els.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the British Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
720%20%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
4510%10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
620%20%

I made some changes from my regular confirmation.  I changed the weights a little by putting less emphasis on the past tournament results.  Then I increased the number of days looking back from 30 to 45, and increased the number of tournaments looking back from 4 to 6.

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

John Deere Classic

This is a quick and short post for the John Deere Classic.

The Tour Outsider's picks for the tournament:
  1. Brendon De Jonge
  2. Ken Duke
  3. Steve Stricker
  4. Zach Johnson
  5. Andres Romero
The Tour Insider's picks for the tournament:
  1. Steve Stricker
  2. Zach Johnson
  3. Louis Oosthuizen
  4. Keegan Bradley
  5. Charley Hoffman

Thursday, July 4, 2013

Greenbrier Classic

This is a quick and short post for the Greenbrier Classic.

The Tour Outsider's picks for the tournament:
  1. Ken Duke
  2. Roberto Castro
  3. Graham Delaet
  4. Bill Haas
  5. Andres Romero
The Tour Insider's picks for the tournament:
  1. Webb Simpson
  2. Bill Haas
  3. Graham Delaet
  4. Scott Stallings
  5. Phil Mickelson