Zurich Classic of New Orleans

[ I am late in posting this week's picks due to my focus on wrapping up my dissertation and other research projects.  However, unlike last week when I was late in my posts, this time I am able to do a full write up.  ]

This week the US PGA Tour heads to the bayou to play the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

#	Player	CLi
1	Bubba Watson	7.20
2	Luke Donald	10.55
3	Jason Dufner	13.45
4	Cameron Tringale	18.80
5	Charles Howell III	18.95
6	John Senden	19.90
7	Keegan Bradley	20.45
8	Jeffrey Overton	22.80
9	Steve Stricker	24.95
10	Greg Owen	26.95
11	Brian Davis	27.50
12	Carl Pettersson	27.55
13	Pat Perez	28.45
14	Greg Chalmers	31.90
15	Chris Stroud	32.15

Watson (analysis) is the only player with a CLi figure less than 10.  He won this tournament last year, and he won the Masters 3 weeks ago.  He was also playing well leading up to the Masters, with 4th and 2nd place finishes the two weeks before the Masters.  However, I am going to pass on him this week as it will be difficult for him to focus on his golf game after all the hoopla surrounding his great win at the Masters.  If he was able to focus on his game, I would pick him.  But the media is just all over him (the media wants, and expects, another 155 yard 90-degree bend pitching wedge from him to win the tournament), and that will make it difficult for him to focus on his golf game this week in New Orleans.

Donald (analysis) is no longer number one in the world this week (McIlroy reclaimed the top spot over last week)at this time.  So maybe that will take some pressure off him, as he is still playing well.  Yes, he had a poor showing at the Masters several weeks ago, and has struggled in the past two tournaments. However, even though he has struggled, he has continued to make the cut.  I look to see him get back into contention this week; to possibly replicate this win at the Transition Championship a month ago.  So he will be my first pick of my 5 picks this week.

For my next 3 picks, I am going with the CLi rankings: Dufner (analysis), Tringale (analysis), and Howell III (analysis).  Dufner has placed 3rd, 7th, and 9th the past 3 years in this event, and since hitting the mainland this season, has yet to miss a cut.  Tringale, a young unheralded buck, is chomping at the bit to get in the winner's circle for the first time. He has placed 18th and 28th the two times he has played in this event, and placed 8th in the past two tournaments he has played in.  Howell III has yet to miss a cut in this event and has placed 2nd twice.  He has missed only one cut in the 11 tournaments he has played in this year.

For my final pick, I am going to skip over Senden (analysis), and pick Bradley (analysis).  Senden is a steady player and that shows in his results in this event -- he has not missed a cut the last 7 events in New Orleans.  However, he has been trending up in his results lately with a 18th, 38th, and 63rd finish in the last 3 events.  As well, in looking at Bradley's results, Bradley has some stronger finishes recently than Senden.  He finished 27th at the Masters even with a 77 in the 2nd round.  And before the Masters, he finished 4th and 8th in the Shell Houston Open and the Cadillac Championship.  These stronger finishes lead to a possible win, and I would like to get a player in the winner circle this week (that would help me make up some ground against the Insider :-) ).


Below are my 5 picks for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans:

#	Player	CLi
1	Luke Donald	10.55
2	Jason Dufner	13.45
3	Cameron Tringale	18.80
4	Charles Howell III	18.95
5	Keegan Bradley	20.45

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Graeme McDowell
2. Steve Stricker
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Luke Donald
5. Bubba Watson

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Zurich Classic of New Orleans

We have 2 players in common this tournament: Bradley and Donald

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Valero Texas Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Valero Texas Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Kevin Streelman | 13 | $112,840
2. Charley Hoffman | 13 | $112,840
3. Brandt Jobe | 91 (MC) | $0
4. Kevin Stadler | 136 (MC) | $0
5. Jimmy Walker | 143 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Charley Hoffman | 13 | $112,840
2. J.B. Holmes | 108 (MC) | $0
3. Johnson Wagner | 119 (MC) | $0
4. Fredrik Jacobson | 18 | $78,120
5. Jimmy Walker | 143 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$225,680	$190,960	TO
Avg Rank	79.2	80.2	TO
Made Cut	2	2	Draw
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 8 wins to the Tour Outsider, 8 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

Somehow I squeaked out a win this week even though I had 3 players that missed the cut (i.e. more players missed the cut than made the cut in my picks).  However, Bolton also had 3 players miss the cut.  Both of us had average rankings above the cut line.  It was Streelman placing well, along with Jobe finishing closer to the cut line (even though he missed the cut), that made the difference.  Not pretty.  But I will take it; a win is a win.  this draws me even with Bolton for the year with 8 wins each.

Valero Texas Open

I am running late in my post for the Valero Texas Open...as I am working on my dissertation and also getting several papers finished and submitted this week.  In addition, the figures for the CLi were extremely high which means the CLi might not be a good indicator for who will play well this week, and that I needed to do more thinking about.  So I am published a "stump" post so that you see my picks compared to the Tour Insider's picks (Bolton).


Below are my 5 picks for the RBC Heritage:

#	Player	CLi
1	Kevin Streelman (analysis)	19.55
2	Charley Hoffman (analysis)	23.00
3	Brandt Jobe (analysis)	23.70
4	Kevin Stadler (analysis)	28.30
5	Jimmy Walker (analysis)	43.20

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Charley Hoffman
2. J.B. Holmes
3. Johnson Wagner
4. Fredrik Jacobson
5. Jimmy Walker

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Valero Texas Open

We have 2 players in common this tournament: Hoffman and Walker

RBC Heritage Review

It is now time to review the picks for the RBC Heritage to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Luke Donald | 37 | $24,510
2. Jim Furyk | 8 | $153,900
3. Bo Van Pelt | 110 (MC) | $0
4. Brian Davis | 13 | $106,875
5. Matt Kuchar | 44 | $16,473

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Jim Furyk | 8 | $153,900
2. Luke Donald | 37 | $24,510
3. Brandt Snedeker | 17 | $85,500
4. Ernie Els | 95 (MC) | $0
5. Matt Kuchar | 44 | $16,473

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$301,758	$280,383	TO
Avg Rank	42.4	40.2	TI
Made Cut	4	4	Draw
Outcome	--	--	Draw

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was a draw.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 7 wins to the Tour Outsider, 8 wins to the Tour Insider, and 2 draws.

RBC Heritage

This week the US PGA Tour heads over to Hilton Head Island to play the RBC Heritage.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the RBC Heritage.

#	Player	CLi
1	Luke Donald	1.80
2	Jim Furyk	5.65
3	Bo Van Pelt	10.95
4	Brian Davis	11.35
5	Matt Kuchar	13.30
6	Boo Weekley	14.60
7	Kevin Na	16.75
8	Ernie Els	19.70
9	Carl Pettersson	25.85
10	Charles Howell III	29.15
11	Bryce Molder	30.25
12	Jason Dufner	30.65
13	Vaughn Taylor	31.10
14	Ken Duke	33.35
15	Scott Piercy	34.15

The first two players, Donald (analysis) and Furyk (analysis),  have CLi figures below 10.  This is usually a good sign they will play well.  So I am going to pick both of them.  But as usual, I still do some digging into the details and examine their past history in this event and how they are playing leading up to this week.

Donald is number one in the world at this time, and is coming off a poor performance in the Masters last week.  He placed 32nd, but had hopes of a higher finish.  He won the Transitions Championship several weeks back and placed 6th at the Cadillac Championship.  In the 6 tournaments he has played in this year, he has yet to miss a cut.  In this event on Hilton Head Island, he has finished 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd the past 3 years.  That is a pretty good showing in this event.  Plus, the tight course sets up well with his control.

Furyk is another player which the tight course sets up well for.  He doesn't hit it long, but has excellent control and a strong short game.  In the 9 instances he has played in the event since 2002, his average finish is 23, with a win (in 2010) and two 2nd place finishes (in 2006 & 2005).  He finished 11th in the Masters last week and in the Arnold Palmer Invitational several weeks back.  And he finished 2nd in the Transitions Championship, which Donald won.

Van Pelt (analysis) is next in the CLi rankings.  He has been high in the CLi rankings the past several weeks. He finished 17th last week in the Masters with a wonderful 64 in the final round that included an ace on the 16th hole.  So he has a good taste in his mouth with that low score in a major.  He had three 8th place finishes and a 9th place finish in the 5 tournaments prior to the Masters.  And when examining his history in this event, he has a 3rd place finish (in 2010) and a 10th place finish (in 2007).  So even though he missed the cut last year in this event, I am going to stick with him this week.

Davis (analysis) was close to winning this event in 2010, losing in a playoff to Furyk.  In the 6 instances he has played in the event, he has only missed the cut once (in 2009, and he followed up the next year with the 2nd place finish). And he has finished 4th in the past two events he has played in leading up to this event (in the Shell Houston Open and the Arnold Palmer Invitational)

Kuchar (analysis) was in a great position to win the Masters last week before settling for 3rd.  He played well in the first major of the year, and has played well so far this season.  He has made the cut in all seven events he has played in this year.  Over the past 4 tournaments, he has placed in the top 10.  He also likes this event on Hilton Head Island, as he has made the cut all 8 times he has played in the event as a professional.  His lowest finish is 7th in 2008.

This means I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings for this event.

Below are my 5 picks for the RBC Heritage:

#	Player	CLi
1	Luke Donald	1.80
2	Jim Furyk	5.65
3	Bo Van Pelt	10.95
4	Brian Davis	11.35
5	Matt Kuchar	13.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Jim Furyk
2. Luke Donald
3. Brandt Snedeker
4. Ernie Els
5. Matt Kuchar

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: RBC Heritage

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Donald, Furyk, and Kuchar

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the RBC Heritage:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

The Masters Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Masters to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Tiger Woods | 40 | $32,000
2. Justin Rose | 8 | $244,000
3. Phil Mickelson | 3 | $284,000
4. Lee Westwood | 3 | $284,000
5. Rory McIlroy | 40 | $32,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Tiger Woods | 40 | $32,000
2. Rory McIlroy | 40 | $32,000
3. Phil Mickelson | 3 | $284,000
4. Hunter Mahan | 12 | $156,800
5. Luke Donald | 32 | $45,280

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$876,000	$550,080	TO
Avg Rank	18.8	25.4	TO
Made Cut	5	5	Draw
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 7 wins to the Tour Outsider, 8 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

I had three top-10 finishers in my five picks, two of which finished in 3rd.  I will take that in a major, along with a win this week against Bolton.

The Masters

This week is the first major of the year, The Masters.  The tournament should be a good one to pay attention to as Tiger is trying to prove he is back, McIlroy is trying to redeem himself from last year's final round fall out, Mickelson is playing strong and going after his 4th green jacket, and the rest of the field is trying to make their stroll on the lush grounds of Augusta National Golf Club enjoyable and worthwhile.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Masters.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	2.40
2	Bo Van Pelt	8.35
3	Justin Rose	9.95
4	Charl Schwartzel	11.55
5	Phil Mickelson	11.70
6	Lee Westwood	13.00
7	Rory McIlroy	13.45
8	Hunter Mahan	15.70
9	Luke Donald	16.05
10	Matt Kuchar	19.05
11	Bubba Watson	22.05
12	Adam Scott	22.55
13	Jason Day	23.75
14	Jim Furyk	25.55
15	Steve Stricker	25.55

Tiger Woods (analysis) is a clear favorite based upon the CLi figure.  His CLi figure is 2.40, and the next nearest player has a CLi figure of 8.35. 

Van Pelt (analysis) based upon good play leading up to this tournament, and last year's 8th place finish in the Masters.  His CLi figure is below 10, and I usually go with players that have a CLi below 10.  However, this time, I am going to pass on him as there are too many good players after him that I think have a higher probability of playing well this week.  So I am going to pass on Van Pelt.

Rose (analysis) is playing well this year, with a win 3 weeks ago in the Cadillac Championship at Doral.  He has played in two tournaments since that win, and finished 15th and 29th.  He has played in the Masters 6 times and has never missed the cut.  His lowest finish is a 5th place in 2007, with an average finish of 22.1.  So that means he is a solid pick in terms of finishing with money, but necessarily to win the tournament or place in the top 10.  He has finished no worse than 22nd (in 2004), has won the event twice in the past 10 years (he has won the Masters four times total), placed 2nd twice, third once, 4th twice, and has an average rank of 6.0 the past 10 times he has played in the event.  HE LIKES THIS TOURNAMENT, to say the least.  And with his win two weeks ago at Palmer's event, he looks like a clear favorite.  So he is primed to finish well this week based upon the numbers.  The mental focus is what will need to be strong, along with being able to enjoy the tournament.  If he is smiling the first two days, then I can see him finishing well over the weekend.

I am passing on Schwartzel (analysis).  He is ranked high in the rankings because he won the tournament last year, and has a 4th and 5th place finish 3 and 4 weeks ago.  However, he has missed the cut in the last two tournaments, finishing 91st and 134th.  Both of those finishes are not stellar finishes.  Plus, the pressure of being the defending champion will be a heavy burden to overcome this week.  So I am not picking him.

Along with Woods, Mickelson (analysis) looks like a very good pick.  He has won the Masters 3 times over the past 10 years.  Coupled with those wins, he has an additional 4 top five finishes and a 8.0 rank average in those 10 events.  He finished 4th last week at the Shell Houston Open and 4th at the Northern Trust Open earlier in the year (in mid February).  The only blemish on his record this year is a missed cut at the Humana Challenge in San Diego.  He shot 77 in the first round, which put him out of the tournament.  However, he was dealing with an issue related to his daughter that was a distraction.  So if if you remove that one round, he has a scoring average that is one of the lowest this year.

Westwood (analysis) has made a great revival the past 5 years, and this shows in his record in the Masters.  The last 5 years, he has not missed the cut and has a 2nd place finish in 2010.  His average rank over the last 5 years in the Masters is 19.4.  Leading up to the tournament this week he has a 2nd place finish, two 4th place finishes, and has not placed out of the top 30 in the 7 events he has played this year.

McIlroy (analysis) was leading the Masters last year going into the final round.  He ballooned to an 80 and finished 15th. However, he came back and won the U.S. Open later in the year, and has not looked back.  He has finished 3rd, 1st, 2nd, and 5th in the last 4 tournaments he has played in....and all of those tournaments had strong fields.  As number 2 in the world rankings, he is a strong pick this week to finish well.

Below are my 5 picks for the Masters:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	2.40
2	Justin Rose	9.95
3	Phil Mickelson	11.70
4	Lee Westwood	13.00
5	Rory McIlroy	13.45

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Tiger Woods
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Phil Mickelson
4. Hunter Mahan
5. Luke Donald

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Masters

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Woods, McIlroy, and Mickelson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Masters:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Shell Houston Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Shell Houston Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Steve Stricker | 36 | $27,650
2. Charl Schwartzel | 91 (MC) | $0
3. Henrik Stenson | 21 | $56,325
4. Lee Westwood | 21 | $56,325
5. Phil Mickelson | 4 | $236,250

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Keegan Bradley | 4 | $236,250
2. Lee Westwood | 4 | $236,250
3. Steve Stricker | 36 | $27,650
4. Graeme McDowell | 63 | $12,660
5. Phil Mickelson | 4 | $236,250

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$376,550	$749,060	TI
Avg Rank	34.6	22.2	TI
Made Cut	4	5	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider by sweeping all 3 categories.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 6 wins to the Tour Outsider, 8 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Bolton had three 4th place finishes in his five picks.  Along with having all his players make the cut, that is a nice week for him.