Monday, March 11, 2013

Tampa Bay Championship

The US PGA Tour is on the west coast of Florida this week to play the Tampa Bay Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Tampa Bay Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  Webb Simpson 8.90
2  Luke Donald 10.85
3  Sergio Garcia 11.40
4  Matt Kuchar 13.45
5  Sang-moon Bae 14.20
6  Scott Stallings 15.40
7  Scott Piercy 21.35
8  Michael Thompson 23.35
9  Jim Furyk 24.85
10  Jimmy Walker 26.25
11  K.J. Choi 30.05
12  David Toms 31.65
13  Bryce Molder 34.90
14  Jason Day 36.20
15  Ernie Els 36.25

I am going with the top 3 players in the CLi rankings: Simpson (analysis), Donald (analysis), Garcia (analysis), and Kuchar (analysis).

Simpson has finished 10th, 2nd, and 3rd in this event the past three years.  Prior to his 20th place finish last week at the Cadillac Championship, he finished 5th (Accenture World Match Play) and 6th (Northern Trust Open).

Donald, although he didn't do well when I picked him last week in the Cadillac Championship, he is playing well overall coming into this tournament.  Prior to his 43rd place finish last week, he had finished 17th (Accenture World Match Play) and 16th (Northern Trust Open).  He likes this event, having won this event last year and finished 6th the previous year.

Garcia finished 3rd in the Cadillac Championship last week..and could have finished solo 2nd if he hadn't hit his 2nd shot in the water on the 72nd hole.  Prior to last week he had finished 17th (Accenture World Match Play) and 13th (Northern Trust Open).  He has finished 16th and 15th in this event the past two years.

Kuchar has finished 10th and 12th in this event the past two years, and seems to like the Innsbruck course and this event.  He is playing well coming into the tournament having won the Accenture World Match Play several weeks ago.  However, he only had a lackluster showing last week in the Cadillac Championship, finishing in the middle of the pack (35th).

For my fifth pick, I am going to skip down several spots and pick Furyk (analysis).  He has finished 2nd and 1st two of the last three years in this event.  He has made the cut in all 4 events he has played in this year, with his lowest finish being 13th in the Northern Trust Open.

Below are my 5 picks for the Tampa Bay Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  Webb Simpson 8.90
2  Luke Donald 10.85
3  Sergio Garcia 11.40
4  Matt Kuchar 13.45
5  Jim Furyk 24.85

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Sergio Garcia
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Adam Scott
  4. Luke Donald
  5. Jason Dufner
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Tampa Bay Championship

We have 3 players in common this week: Garcia, Simpson, and Donald

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Tamp Bay Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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