Wednesday, April 11, 2012

RBC Heritage

This week the US PGA Tour heads over to Hilton Head Island to play the RBC Heritage.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the RBC Heritage.

# Player CLi 
1 Luke Donald 1.80
2 Jim Furyk 5.65
3 Bo Van Pelt 10.95
4 Brian Davis 11.35
5 Matt Kuchar 13.30
6 Boo Weekley 14.60
7 Kevin Na 16.75
8 Ernie Els 19.70
9 Carl Pettersson 25.85
10 Charles Howell III 29.15
11 Bryce Molder 30.25
12 Jason Dufner 30.65
13 Vaughn Taylor 31.10
14 Ken Duke 33.35
15 Scott Piercy 34.15

The first two players, Donald (analysis) and Furyk (analysis),  have CLi figures below 10.  This is usually a good sign they will play well.  So I am going to pick both of them.  But as usual, I still do some digging into the details and examine their past history in this event and how they are playing leading up to this week.

Donald is number one in the world at this time, and is coming off a poor performance in the Masters last week.  He placed 32nd, but had hopes of a higher finish.  He won the Transitions Championship several weeks back and placed 6th at the Cadillac Championship.  In the 6 tournaments he has played in this year, he has yet to miss a cut.  In this event on Hilton Head Island, he has finished 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd the past 3 years.  That is a pretty good showing in this event.  Plus, the tight course sets up well with his control.

Furyk is another player which the tight course sets up well for.  He doesn't hit it long, but has excellent control and a strong short game.  In the 9 instances he has played in the event since 2002, his average finish is 23, with a win (in 2010) and two 2nd place finishes (in 2006 & 2005).  He finished 11th in the Masters last week and in the Arnold Palmer Invitational several weeks back.  And he finished 2nd in the Transitions Championship, which Donald won.

Van Pelt (analysis) is next in the CLi rankings.  He has been high in the CLi rankings the past several weeks. He finished 17th last week in the Masters with a wonderful 64 in the final round that included an ace on the 16th hole.  So he has a good taste in his mouth with that low score in a major.  He had three 8th place finishes and a 9th place finish in the 5 tournaments prior to the Masters.  And when examining his history in this event, he has a 3rd place finish (in 2010) and a 10th place finish (in 2007).  So even though he missed the cut last year in this event, I am going to stick with him this week.

Davis (analysis) was close to winning this event in 2010, losing in a playoff to Furyk.  In the 6 instances he has played in the event, he has only missed the cut once (in 2009, and he followed up the next year with the 2nd place finish). And he has finished 4th in the past two events he has played in leading up to this event (in the Shell Houston Open and the Arnold Palmer Invitational)

Kuchar (analysis) was in a great position to win the Masters last week before settling for 3rd.  He played well in the first major of the year, and has played well so far this season.  He has made the cut in all seven events he has played in this year.  Over the past 4 tournaments, he has placed in the top 10.  He also likes this event on Hilton Head Island, as he has made the cut all 8 times he has played in the event as a professional.  His lowest finish is 7th in 2008.

This means I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings for this event.

Below are my 5 picks for the RBC Heritage:
# Player CLi 
1 Luke Donald 1.80
2 Jim Furyk 5.65
3 Bo Van Pelt 10.95
4 Brian Davis 11.35
5 Matt Kuchar 13.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Jim Furyk
  2. Luke Donald
  3. Brandt Snedeker
  4. Ernie Els
  5. Matt Kuchar
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: RBC Heritage

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Donald, Furyk, and Kuchar

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the RBC Heritage:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

No comments:

Post a Comment