Tuesday, April 19, 2011

The Heritage

East coast, here we come again! The US PGA Tour is back on the Atlantic this week to play The Heritage on Hilton Head Island.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for The Heritage.

# Player CLi 
1 Luke Donald  1.85
2 Aaron Baddeley  15.25
3 Matt Kuchar  15.35
4 Jim Furyk  15.50
5 Webb Simpson  21.50
6 Charles Howell III  24.80
7 Fredrik Jacobson  26.70
8 Steve Marino  28.15
9 Jason Day  28.60
10 Jerry Kelly  30.35
11 Brian Davis  31.20
12 Bo Van Pelt  31.60
13 Brian Gay  32.35
14 Ben Crane  35.70
15 Scott Verplank  35.90

This week shows another clear favorite in Luke Donald [ analysis ]. Donald has a CLi figure of 1.85, with the next closest player, Baddeley, having a CLi of 15.25. So combined with the low CLi and the distance from the next player, Donald is a player that I should not pass up. Thus, he is my first pick.

Then looking down the list, I am going to stick with the CLi rankings: Baddeley [ analysis ], Kuchar [ analysis ], Furyk [ analysis ], and Simpson [ analysis ]. All 4 of these players play well on tight courses like Harbor Town Links.  (And interesting enough, I believe these players are "slow" players.  If that is the case, I wonder if "slow" players play better on short courses?  Just a thought.)

Below are my 5 picks for The Heritage :

# Player CLi 
1 Luke Donald  1.85
2 Aaron Baddeley  15.25
3 Matt Kuchar  15.35
4 Jim Furyk  15.50
5 Webb Simpson  21.50

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Aaron Baddeley
  2. Luke Donald
  3. Jim Furyk
  4. Matt Kuchar
  5. Ricky Barnes
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: The Heritage

We have 4 players in common this week: Baddeley, Donald, Furyk, and Kuchar. It could have very easily been 5 players the same, as Webb Simpson, my 5th pick, was Bolton's 6th pick. Instead, he picked Barnes. So for me, let's go Webb!!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for The Heritage:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%


If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

2 comments:

  1. Hey John,

    I like Donald, Baddeley, Kuchar, Gay, and Fowler. Fowler is fun to watch, so I hope he does well. It is hard not to pick Furyk, but he just has not been very consistent this year.

    Baummer

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  2. @Baummer. I can see Fowler playing well in this tourney. Hopefully Furyk will be on one of his good swings this week. He tends to enjoy Hilton Head, and the course suits him well.

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