Wednesday, June 27, 2012

AT&T National

This week the US PGA Tour is hosting Tiger Woods' tournament, the AT&T National, which is being played at Congressional Country Club situated just outside of Washington D.C.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T National.

# Player CLi 
1 Tiger Woods 9.00
2 Hunter Mahan 9.95
3 Jim Furyk 11.15
4 John Merrick 13.10
5 Marc Leishman 15.35
6 Bo Van Pelt 19.90
7 Charley Hoffman 21.85
8 J.B. Holmes 23.00
9 Danny Lee 23.05
10 Nick O'Hern 23.15
11 Jeffrey Overton 23.20
12 Pat Perez 26.25
13 Chris Kirk 26.35
14 Bryce Molder 27.35
15 Ryan Moore 29.80


Tiger (analysis) is on the top of the CLi ranking again. It is fitting that it is for the official tournament that he hosts on the U.S. PGA Tour.  He missed the tournament last year. Prior to last year he had finished 46th, 1st, and 6th.  As for his play this year, he won the Memorial Tournament a month ago and Arnie's tournament earlier this year.  In his last event, the U.S. Open, he finished 21st after leading the event after the 2nd round.

Mahan (analysis) has finished in the top-12 in 3 of the last four times he has played this event, with a 2nd place finish in 2009.  Leading up to this tournament he has finished 11th, (Travelers Championship), 38th (U.S. Open), and 19th (Memorial Tournament) in his last 3 outings.

Furyk (analysis) is coming off his "miss at a win" in the U.S. Open two weeks ago where he had the lead with two holes to ago before finishing 4th.  Previous to the U.S. Open, he had finished 13th (Memorial Tournament), 4th (Crowne Plaza Invitational), and 25th (PLAYERS Championship).  He is playing well.

I am going to skip over Merrick (analysis) and Leishman (analysis).  Last week, for the Travelers Championship, the CLi rankings included a large number of players that had played well in the FedEx St,. Jude Classic (played 2 weeks prior to the Travelers Championship).  I didn't bode well with those picks.  Merrick was one of those players who I picked last week that played well in the FedEx St. Jude Classic and didn't fair well.  He is high in the CLi rankings again this week, but I am going to skip him.

A quick glance in the CLi rankings, many of the players in the top 15 are players that played well last week, including last week's winner Leishman and Hoffman (analysis).  So I am hesitant to pick players that played well last week in the Travelers Championship as my picks didn't fair too well for the Travelers Championship when relying solely on the previous event played in by a player. I am going to skip over Leishman and Hoffman because of that reason.

For my final two picks, I am going with Van Pelt (analysis) and Holmes (analysis).  Van Pelt has finished 11th in this event the last two years (albeit, on a different course than Congressional), and hasn't missed a cut since April (in the RBC Heritage).  Holmes finished 5th in this event in 2010, and has finished 37th (Travelers Championship), 19th (FedEx St. Jude), and 13th (Memorial Tournament) in the last three events he has played in.  His length off the tee should be an advantage as long as he can keep it in the fairway.  If he can keep it in the fairway, making a few putts could land him in the top of the field this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T National:

# Player CLi 
1 Tiger Woods 9.00
2 Hunter Mahan 9.95
3 Jim Furyk 11.15
4 Bo Van Pelt 19.90
5 J.B. Holmes 23.00

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Jim Furyk
  2. Hunter Mahan
  3. Tiger Woods
  4. Dustin Johnson
  5. K.J. Choi
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T National

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Furyk, Mahan, and Woods

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T National:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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