Sunday, September 30, 2012

Ryder Cup Singles Matches Analysis

Today is the final round of the Ryder Cup.  Team USA has a commanding lead over Team Europe going into the singles matches today, with the score 10-to-6.  It will be difficult for Team Europe to come back from such a deficit.  They will have to win 8 of the 12 singles matches.  To have fun today, I have performed analyses to see if that is possible (at least on paper).

Below, I list out the singles matches and run head-to-head analyses using Fanooz's head-to-head tool for the Ryder Cup.  I compare the each player in a singles match with their opponent base upon four different criteria dating back from January 2008 in official money, medal play tournaments: 1) only majors-total tournament 2) all tournaments-total tournament, 3) all tournaments-first round scores, and 4) all tournaments-final round scores.

Europe USA Only Majors # Results
Donald Watson 50%-50% 16 Tie
Poulter Simpson 50%-50% 6 Tie
McIlroy Bradley 20%-80% 5 USA
Rose Mickelson 24%-76% 17 USA
Lawrie Snedeker 67%-33% 6 Europe
Colsaerts D. Johnson 50%-50% 4 Tie
McDowell Z. Johnson 67%-33% 18 Europe
Garcia Furyk 40%-60% 20 USA
Hanson Dufner 73%-27% 11 Europe
Westwood Kuchar 81%-19% 16 Europe
Kaymer Stricker 35%-65% 20 USA
Molinari Woods 23%-77% 13 USA
Team Europe 4
Team USA 5
Ties 3


Note: The figures in the # column indicates how many tournaments the players both played in (i.e. to be able to compare their results against one another).

When looking only at majors, the head-to-head tool predicts that Europe has an advantage in 4 of the matches, USA has an advantage in 5 of the matches, and that there is no advantage for either side in 3 of the matches.  Europe will want to see those close matches go their way if they are going to have a chance of retaining the Cup.

Europe USA All Tournaments # Results
Donald Watson 63%-37% 61 Europe
Poulter Simpson 51%-49% 41 Europe
McIlroy Bradley 60%-40% 20 Europe
Rose Mickelson 45%-55% 69 USA
Lawrie Snedeker 60%-40% 10 Europe
Colsaerts D. Johnson 44%-56% 9 USA
McDowell Z. Johnson 48%-52% 46 USA
Garcia Furyk 33%-67% 63 USA
Hanson Dufner 54%-46% 24 Europe
Westwood Kuchar 58%-42% 36 Europe
Kaymer Stricker 32%-68% 37 USA
Molinari Woods 38%-62% 26 USA
Team Europe 6
Team USA 6
Ties 0

When looking at all tournaments (both majors and non-major tournaments), the head-to-head tool predicts that Europe has an advantage in 6 of the matches, and USA has an advantage in the other 6 of the matches.

When combining both of the results (from the major only analysis and all the tournaments analysis), USA has a slight edge on paper per the results of the head-to-head tool.  It will be difficult for Europe to pull out a win in this Ryder Cup, as they will need to figure out how to pull out some of the close matches.  For example, if the 3 ties from the majors only analysis go to Europe, that would result in Europe obtaining 7 points.  Then they would only have to win one additional match to keep the cup.

Some additional analyses shows interesting results with Poulter and Westwood.  Poulter and Westwood tend to play better than their opponent in final rounds.  This is an indicator that they play better when there is more riding on the results....like in the Ryder Cup.  We saw that from Poulter yesterday (Saturday) by looking at his eyes (focus) and how he made several putts down the stretch to help his team earn a point in the afternoon play.

These head-to-head analyses for the Ryder Cup are not necessarily comparing apples-to-apples since the Ryder Cup is such a different event than medal play tournaments where players represent themselves, as opposed to their country.  However, it is fun to see how the analyses stacks up to the actual results.

Enjoy watching the singles matches today.   The fans have really turned out for the event, and Chicago has been a great host city this year.

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