Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Farmer's Insurance Open

The US PGA Tour moves to California to play the Farmer's Insurance Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Farmer's Insurance Open.

# Player CLi
1 Alex Prugh  10.85
2 Ben Crane  11.50
3 Charles Howell III  14.35
4 Ryuji Imada  15.55
5 Bill Haas  17.20
6 Tiger Woods  17.30
7 Rickie Fowler  19.10
8 Marc Leishman  20.50
9 Webb Simpson  21.05
10 Justin Rose  22.05
11 Nick Watney  22.05
12 Rory Sabbatini  22.75
13 Brandt Snedeker  23.95
14 Davis Love III  25.90
15 Arjun Atwal  26.10

I am going to skip over Prugh this week. This is his second consecutive tournament to be at the top of the CLi list, and he has a distinct advantage based upon his CLi figure. However, when looking at the details of his finishes that the CLi calculation used, the CLi calculation is using only one year of data for his finishes at this tournament (as he has only played in this tournament once). He finished 5th in that one event. That great finish for him might be biasing the CLi calculation in this case. I could change the weights for the formula to put less weight on the past instances of the tournament because of this issue. However, I feel that past finishes in this tournament should still receive the 50% weight I have set for my CLi calculation. As well, when looking at the rest of the top 15 players, I agree with the rankings after Prugh in the list. So I am going stick with this CLi calculation setting.

I will pick the next 3 players in the list after Prugh: Crane, Howell, and Imada. Then I am going to against the hot hand of Haas, and skip over him to pick Woods and Fowler. Although Woods is an unknown factor these days as depending on which Woods shows up, he loves playing at Torrey Pines. So I am going to go with him in the hopes that the Woods-of-old shows up this week at Torrey Pines. Then I am going to pick the young gun, Fowler, because he likes playing in southern California and can shoot some low numbers that could give him a solid showing in this tournament...like his 5th place last year.

Below are my 5 picks for the Farmer's Insurance Open :

# Player CLi
1 Ben Crane  11.50
2 Charles Howell III  14.35
3 Ryuji Imada  15.55
4 Tiger Woods  17.30
5 Rickie Fowler  19.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Bill Haas
  2. Nick Watney
  3. Ben Crane
  4. Rickie Fowler
  5. Tiger Woods
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Farmer's Insurance Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Crane, Fowler, and Woods.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

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