The Masters - Preview - CLi as of 2012-03-27

This is a continuation of the posts from the past two weeks where I am posting the CLi results for the Masters, which is next week.  Schwartzel, Mickelson, Woods, Rose, and Westwood topped the list two weeks ago (on 2012-03-13), and Mickelson, Woods, Rose, Schwartzel, and Van Pelt topped the list last week (on 2012-03-22).  I have rerun the CLi calculation again to include last week's tournaments to see if there are any changes.  Below are the top 5 players in the CLi rankings as of today (2012-03-27):

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	2.45
2	Charl Schwartzel	7.55
3	Bo Van Pelt	8.65
4	Justin Rose	10.40
5	Lee Westwood	10.85

This week Woods moved from 2nd to 1st due to his win last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Mickelson falling down the list. Mickelson fell from 1st to 8th since his good finishes this year are more than four weeks out (look at why that is important by examining the configuration of the CLi below), and other players in the field that are ranked above him have finished well in the recent tournaments. 

McIlroy moved from 7th to 6th (mainly because Mickelson fell from 1st to 8th), while Stricker fell from 8th to 10th.  Donald is now 7th.

This is the last of the Masters posts before next week's Tour Outsider posting against the Tour Insider).  It has been interesting to see how the rankings have changed over the past several weeks.

So you know the settings I used to calculate these rankings, below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the calculation:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Shell Houston Open

The US PGA Tour takes a quick trip to Texas before heading to Augusta next week for the year's first major. The tour is in Houston to play the Shell Houston Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Shell Houston Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	6.60
2	Charl Schwartzel	8.10
3	Henrik Stenson	9.15
4	Lee Westwood	12.85
5	Phil Mickelson	13.85
6	Aaron Baddeley	15.70
7	Fred Couples	16.20
8	Johnson Wagner	20.00
9	Robert Allenby	20.40
10	Ernie Els	24.25
11	John Senden	26.25
12	Padraig Harrington	30.30
13	Keegan Bradley	30.85
14	Kevin Stadler	32.60
15	Hunter Mahan	32.80

Three players have a CLi figure below 10: Stricker (analysis), Schwartzel (analysis), and Stenson (analysis). 

The low CLi value for Stricker is understandable.  He placed 4th last year in this event, and has only missed the cut once in the past 7 times he has played the event since 2003.  He has placed in the top 11 four of the 7 times, and has an average rank in these 7 instances of 29.  In the past four events that he has played in (he has only played in 4 tournaments this year), he has placed in the top 10 three of those events, and won one of those events (the Hyundai Tournament of Champions).  He has only played one event in the past 4 weeks (the Cadillac Championship), and has a known issue with his neck that has hindered him from playing many tournaments back-to-back (thus the reason for him not playing as much these days).  However, I am still going to pick Stricker as my first pick due to his past performance, and that he has played well in the tournaments that he has choose to play in this year.

Schwartzel has been playing well lately, having finished in the top 5 in 6 of the last tournaments he has played in. The negative mark against him is that he missed the cut in the last tournament he played in -- the Transition Championships two weeks ago.  However, I am still going to pick him as he has played well in this tournament the 3 times he has played in it -- he has not missed the cut, and finished 3rd in 2010.

For me, the low CLi for Stenson is strange as he has struggled the past couple of years after being highly ranked for several years prior.  But when examining his recent results, and the results for the past instances of this tournament for him, he has shown some positive signs of good play. He has played in this event once (in 2009) and finished 3rd.  The worst finish he has had in the last 4 events is 21st, and he finished 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open two weeks ago.  Those are some strong shows, so I am going to pick him.

And then how can one pass up on Westwood (analysis) and Mickelson (analysis)? They are the next two players in the CLi rankings.  Westwood is number 3 in the world (behind Donald and McIlroy, which are not playing in this event), has never missed a cut in this event in the 5 times he has played, and has 3 top 4 finishes in 3 of the 4 events he has played this year.  Mickelson won this event last year, and has only missed the cut once in the 5 times he has played in the event.  He has a 1st and 2nd finish in the last 4 events he has played in.  As well, both of the players like playing in Houston....when they play.  So they are my final two picks, which means I am sticking with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings for a 4th tournament in 4 weeks.

Below are my 5 picks for the Shell Houston Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	6.60
2	Charl Schwartzel	8.10
3	Henrik Stenson	9.15
4	Lee Westwood	12.85
5	Phil Mickelson	13.85

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Keegan Bradley
2. Lee Westwood
3. Steve Stricker
4. Graeme McDowell
5. Phil Mickelson

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Shell Houston Open

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Westwood, Stricker, and Mickelson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Shell Houston Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Tiger Woods | 1 | $1,080,000
2. Justin Rose | 15 | $96,000
3. Jim Furyk | 11 | $132,000
4. Bo Van Pelt | 117 (WD) | $0
5. Bubba Watson | 4 | $209,571

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Tiger Woods | 1 | $1,080,000
2. Justin Rose | 15 | $96,000
3. Webb Simpson | 36 | $27,650
4. Bo Van Pelt | 117 (WD) | $0
5. Jim Furyk | 11 | $132,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,517,571	$1,335,650	TO
Avg Rank	30.2	36.0	TO
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 6 wins to the Tour Outsider, 7 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

Bolton and I both had a winner in Woods this week.  We both had a no show in Van Pelt, who pulled out of the tournament before the first round.  And we had some good picks, but the difference was the final round.  Watson, my pick played well, and Simpson, Bolton's pick, shot 78 in the final round.  It is good to have one go my way in the final round, as most of the time the final round has been a killer for me.

The Masters - Preview - CLi as of 2012-03-22

Last week, on March 13th, I posted the CLi results for the Masters since the tournament is less than a month away.  Schwartzel, Mickelson, Woods, Rose, and Westwood topped the list last week (on 2012-03-13).  I have rerun the CLi calculation again to include last week's tournaments to see if there are any changes.  Below are the top 5 players in the CLi rankings as of today (2012-03-22):

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	7.40
2	Tiger Woods	8.00
3	Justin Rose	8.80
4	Charl Schwartzel	9.15
5	Bo Van Pelt	9.35

This week Mickelson takes the top slot, with Woods not far behind.  With Schwartzel missing the cut last week at the Transitions Championship, he dropped from 1st to 4th.  Westwood didn't play last week, while Van Pelt did -- and played well, finishing 9th.  So Van Pelt moved into the 5th position, pushing Westwood to 6th.

McIlroy stayed in 7th position, while Stricker moved from 9th to 8th.

As I mentioned last week, watching the changes in these rankings (and the CLi figures) over the next couple of weeks will be fun as we get closer to the tournament.

So you know the settings I used to calculate these rankings, below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the calculation:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Arnold Palmer Invitational

As mentioned in my previous post regarding the review of the results for the Transitions Championship, I am late in posting this week because of my trip from Louisville-to South Texas-back to Louisville....a nice long road trip.  However, it is better being late than not posting my picks at all.

The US PGA Tour moves to central Florida this week to play Palmer's tournament, the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	3.20
2	Justin Rose	10.70
3	Jim Furyk	12.65
4	Bo Van Pelt	14.80
5	Bubba Watson	17.55
6	Hunter Mahan	18.80
7	Robert Allenby	19.15
8	Ernie Els	20.15
9	Ben Crane	20.20
10	Phil Mickelson	21.40
11	David Toms	22.35
12	Sergio Garcia	22.75
13	Dicky Pride	24.10
14	Spencer Levin	25.05
15	Webb Simpson	27.05

Only one player has a CLi figure below 10, and that is Woods (analysis).  In the previous 10 instances of this tournament, Woods has won this event 4 times.  He has never missed the cut in the event.  In addition, he finished 2nd at the Honda Classic several weeks ago.  So even though he pulled out of the Cadillac Championship two weeks ago due to an Achilles injury, he is my first pick.

And then looking down the list, I am going to stick with the next four players in the CLi rankings: Rose (analysis), Furyk (analysis), Van Pelt (analysis), and Watson (analysis).

Rose finished third in this event last year, and won the Cadillac two weeks ago.  He is ready to keep his good finishes going in Florida.

Furyk was leading going into the final round last week at the Transitions Championship before losing in a playoff to Donald.  So he is has a good finish in Florida leading up to this event.  And the last two years in the event he has finished 9th and 11th.

Van Pelt has not missed the cut in this event the 7 times he has played in it.  And he has placed in the top 10 in the last 3 medal play events he has played in, including 9th last week at the Transitions Championship.

Watson has been sporadic in this event, having missed the cut 3 times out of the 6 times he has played in it.  However last year, he was on track for a good finish in the event if it wasn't for the 78 he shot in the final round.  And he was leading the tournament going into the final round in 2008 before he finished 8th.  So he can play well on the course if he can get over his stage fright....which is very capable of doing.  In addition, he was 2nd at the Cadillac Championship two weeks ago.  I am going to pick him since he is playing well, and has shown brightness on occasion at Arnie's event.

As with last week, I am putting my faith again in the CLi calculation.

Below are my 5 picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	3.20
2	Justin Rose	10.70
3	Jim Furyk	12.65
4	Bo Van Pelt	14.80
5	Bubba Watson	17.55

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Tiger Woods
2. Justin Rose
3. Webb Simpson
4. Bo Van Pelt
5. Jim Furyk

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Arnold Palmer Invitational

We have 4 players in common this tournament: Woods, Rose, Van Pelt, and Furyk.  That means it is Simpson against Watson.  Go Bubba!!!!

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Transitions Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Transitions Championship to see how the results turned out....a little late this week as I have been traveling (by road) from Louisville-to South Texas-back to Louisville.  But better late than never this week.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Justin Rose | 29 | $32,756
2. Peter Hanson | 55 | $12,265
3. John Senden | 38 | $23,100
4. Webb Simpson | 10 | $132,000
5. Bo Van Pelt | 9 | $159,500

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Charl Schwartzel | 134 (MC) | $0
2. Matt Kuchar | 10 | $132,000
3. Luke Donald | 1 | $990,000
4. Justin Rose | 29 | $32,756
5. Martin Laird | 78 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$359,621	$1,154,756	TI
Avg Rank	28.2	50.4	TO
Made Cut	5	3	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 5 wins to the Tour Outsider, 7 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

I stole one this week.  Bolton had a winner in Donald, with Donald winning a 4 way playoff over Garrigus, Bae, and Furyk.  And as such, his total earnings were almost 4 times greater than mine.  However, my average rank was almost half his since all 5 of my picks made the cut and he had 2 players miss the cut.  So picking is about BOTH a high finish AND consistency with all five picks.

The Masters - Preview - CLi as of 2012-03-13

With the Masters less than a month away, people are starting to get interested in which player is the favorite to win this year.  So I ran a CLi calculation to see what the results would be as of today (2012-03-13).  Below are the top 5 players in the CLi rankings as of today:

#	Player	CLi
1	Charl Schwartzel	2.95
2	Phil Mickelson	6.80
3	Tiger Woods	7.65
4	Justin Rose	8.50
5	Lee Westwood	9.45

It is interesting that Schwarztel is on top of the list.  So as we get closer, will he stay on top?  And will McIlroy move up in the rankings (he is currently 7th)?  Or will fellow Illinois alumnus and short game extraordinar, Steve Stricker, move up as well (he is currently 9th)?  And will Woods stay in the list of favorites even with his achilles injury (the CLi won't be able to determine that.....)?

Watching the changes in these rankings (and the CLi figures) over the next couple of weeks will be fun as we get closer to the tournament.

So you know the settings I used to calculate these rankings, below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the calculation:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%