Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Transitions Championship

The US PGA Tour moves to the east coast of Florida this week to play the Transitions Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Transitions Championship.

# Player CLi 
1 Justin Rose 5.95
2 Peter Hanson 7.75
3 John Senden 9.60
4 Webb Simpson 13.40
5 Bo Van Pelt 19.75
6 Robert Allenby 22.85
7 Jim Furyk 22.95
8 Matt Kuchar 25.00
9 Charlie Wi 25.65
10 Luke Donald 27.85
11 Sean O'Hair 28.05
12 Zach Johnson 28.55
13 Jonathan Byrd 32.35
14 Brandt Snedeker 32.45
15 Kenny Perry 34.90

Three of the players have CLi figures below 10 this week.  So I am going to go with those players for my first three picks.

Rose (analysis) won the Cadillac Championship last week, so he is playing well leading up to this tournament.  In addition, he plays well in this tournament, with a 5th place finish last year.  In the 6 times he has played in the tournament he has finished no worse than 30th.

Hanson (analysis), a European PGA Tour player, finished 4th last week in the Cadillac Championship and made it to the quarterfinals in the Accenture World Championship Match Play event several weeks ago.  And early February he finished 2nd in the Qatar Masters.  Last year was his first time to play in this event, and he finished 15th.

Senden (analysis) finished 6th last week in the Cadillac Championship, and has finished in the top 10 3 out of the previous 4 tournaments he has played in -- placing 9th at the Accenture World Golf Championship Match Play and 6th at the Humana Challenge.  In the 8 times he has played this event, he has finished 2nd twice, and missed the cut twice.  Last year he finished 15th.

Then for the next 2 players, I am going to stick with the CLi rankings as well.

Simpson (analysis) has a CLi above 10 (13.40).  However, he finished 2nd in this event last year and 13th the previous year.  He has made the cut in the 4 medal play tournaments he has played in so far this year (...however, that is a misleading statistic as 2 of those tournaments didn't have a cut).  A better statistic is that he has notched 2 top-tens in those 4 tournaments.  And he was on track for another top-ten last week at the Cadillac Championship before he shoot 77 in the final round.

Van Pelt (analysis) is another player with a CLi above 10 (19.75).  But he still looks like a good pick this week.  He has played in this event 8 times and has 2 top-ten finishes, and only one missed cut (along with 1 WD).  In the last 3 medal play events he has played in, he has finished 8th in all 3 events including last week at the Cadillac Championship.

So I am putting my faith in the CLi calculation...along with my additional analysis this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Transitions Championship:

# Player CLi 
1 Justin Rose 5.95
2 Peter Hanson 7.75
3 John Senden 9.60
4 Webb Simpson 13.40
5 Bo Van Pelt 19.75

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Charl Schwartzel
  2. Matt Kuchar
  3. Luke Donald
  4. Justin Rose
  5. Martin Laird
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Transitions Championship

We have 1 player in common this tournament: Rose.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Transitions Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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