Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Children's Miracle Network Hospital Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is back in the United States to play the last official money event of the year and the last event of the Fall Finish.  The tournament, the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic is a fun end of the year tournament for the players as they get to take their families to Disney World in Florida.  However, players that are on the "125 bubble" (players need to be ranked 125 or better to keep their card for next year) might not be having as much fun as the other players in the field.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic.

# Player CLi 
1  Tommy Gainey 10.15
2  Davis Love III 12.05
3  Henrik Stenson 15.30
4  Charles Howell III 15.95
5  Robert Garrigus 17.80
6  Alexandre Rocha 20.05
7  Justin Leonard 22.05
8  Gary Woodland 22.85
9  Tim Petrovic 24.50
10  Brendon De Jonge 28.10
11  D.A. Points 29.75
12  Tim Herron 30.05
13  Mathew Goggin 32.15
14  Sean O'Hair 32.50
15  Steven Bowditch 33.85

The CLi rankings are high, with the lowest CLi figure being 10.15 (Gainey).  That usually indicates that it is difficult to predict which players will play well based upon past statistics (which the CLi uses).

However, when examining the details behind each of the CLi figures for the top players, the top five players look like good picks in this tournament.

Gainey (analysis) won several weeks ago at the McGladrey Classic.  He didn't play well last year in this event (missed the cut, finished 93rd).   But in the only other time he played, in 2008, he finished 2nd.

Love III (analysis) placed 4th in the McGladrey Classic several weeks ago when Gainey came from behind to beat him (Gainey shot 60 in the final round).  As with Gainey, Love didn't play well last year in this event (missed the cut, finished 76th).  However, placed 19th in 2010, won the event in 2008, and placed 5th in 2006 and 2003.

Stenson (analysis) has finished 26th, 27th, and 6th in the last 3 events he has played.  He finished 12th last year in this event, which is the only time he has played in the event.

In his last two outing, Howell III (analysis) finished 7th at the McGladrey Classic and 11th in the Frys.com.  He didn't play well last year in this event (missed the cut, finished 76th).  However, he finished 9th in 2010 and in 2006.

Garrigus (analysis) played well two weeks ago in the CIMB Classic where he finished 2nd.  However, he didn't play stellar last week in China at the HSBC Champions tournament.  And as is with Gainey, Love III, and Howell III, he missed the cut in the event last year (finished 88th).  However, he likes this event as he won it in 2010.

Here are my picks for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic:

#PlayerCLi
1 Tommy Gainey10.15
2 Davis Love III12.05
3 Henrik Stenson15.30
4 Charles Howell III15.95
5 Robert Garrigus17.80

It is interesting that I have two "thirds" in my picks -- Davis Love III and Charles Howell III. :-)

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Robert Garrigus
  2. Chris Kirk
  3. Charles Howell III
  4. Brendon De Jonge
  5. Tommy Gainey
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Garrigus, Howell III, and Gainey

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)       
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)       
605%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)       
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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