The Masters

This week the US PGA Tour heads down Magnolia Lane in Augusta, Georgia to embrace the year's first major, The Masters. It should be a good one with many of the prominent players hitting on all cylinders.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Tiger Woods 2.15 2 S Phil Mickelson 2.75 3 S Nick Watney 6.35 4 S Paul Casey 12.60 5 S Retief Goosen 12.80 6 S Luke Donald 16.10 7 S Ernie Els 16.55 8 S Fred Couples 18.15 9 S Zach Johnson 18.30 10 S Sean O'Hair 19.50 11 S Padraig Harrington 19.60 12 S Justin Leonard 21.65 13 S Stewart Cink 21.80 14 S Geoff Ogilvy 21.95 15 S Robert Karlsson 22.05

As usual, the CLi rankings for a major look good. However, there are two favorites going into the week: Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Both of their CLis for the tournament are less than 3. That is a good indicator that they both will play well. As such, it would be foolish of me to pass up either one of them. So I start my picks by getting the two big guns out of the way. I pick Woods and Mickelson

I am going to pass up Watney, even though he has been playing well. His experience in the Masters is limited.

Then I am going to pick Casey and Goosen. Both players have won in the past several weeks. Casey won last week at the Shell Houston Open, and Goosen won 3 weeks ago at the Transitions Championship in Florida.

I would pick Donald. However, his wrist injury draws up a big question mark in terms of how he will play this week.

However, in sticking with a European for my 5th pick, I am going to go with Harrington. He is the current reigning British Open champion and the current reigning PGA champion. So if he does win this week, he will have won 3 majors in a row.

Below are my 5 picks for The Masters:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Tiger Woods 2.15 2 S Phil Mickelson 2.75 3 S Paul Casey 12.60 4 S Retief Goosen 12.80 5 S Padraig Harrington 19.60

Shell Houston Open

This week the US PGA Tour takes a jump from the east coast to the southwest (Texas) to play the Shell Houston Open. It is the last tournament before the Masters, and any player not already in the Masters' field will earn an invitation to the tournament. So there is some urgency in the air in Houston for those players seeking to get into the first major of the year.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Steve Stricker 6.75 2 S Phil Mickelson 10.50 3 S Geoff Ogilvy 12.05 4 S Charley Hoffman * 16.50 5 S K.J. Choi 20.85 6 S Mathew Goggin 24.20 7 S Padraig Harrington 26.65 8 S Kevin Na * 27.45 9 S Hunter Mahan 27.55 10 S Jeffrey Overton * 27.55 11 S Ben Crane * 28.15 12 S Anthony Kim 28.35 13 S Charles Howell III * 29.80 14 S Davis Love III * 30.75 15 S Bo Van Pelt * 31.50

* - denotes players that are not in the Masters field at this time (before the start of the Shell Houston Open).

Only one player has a CLi figure below 10. So this means that it will be another tough tournament to pick which players will play well as there is no clear support in the data which players will play well this week.

I opened this blog saying there was some urgency for players not already in the Masters to play well this week. Almost half of the players in the top 15 in the CLi rankings (7 players) are not in the Masters field. So in picking players this week I will take that into consideration.

The top 5 players in the CLi rankings all look good. I was going to drop one of them if all 5 were in the Masters field. However, Hoffman is in the top 5 in the CLi rankings and is not in the Masters field. So that means I can go with the top 5 and have 4 players that are in the Masters field and 1 that is not. Maybe Hoffman will pull out a victory to earn an invitation to the Masters next week.

Note: Urgency can be a negative, as it makes some players push too much. So the urgency arguement could be turned around and used as a deterrent to playing well down the stretch. When watching this tournament let's see which players use urgency to their advantage, and which ones "over use" it in a fashion that it hurts their chances of playing well

Below are my 5 picks for the Shell Houston Open:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Steve Stricker 6.75 2 S Phil Mickelson 10.50 3 S Geoff Ogilvy 12.05 4 S Charley Hoffman * 16.50 5 S K.J. Choi 20.85

Next week is the Masters, the first major of the year. Since the field for the Masters is already in place except for one player (the winner of the Shell Houston Open), the field has already been entered into the GolfInvestors system. So you can take a look at the current field analysis at this time to get a head start on analyzing the Masters' field.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

This week the US PGA Tour moves to Orlando, Florida to play Arnie's tournament: The Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Tiger Woods 9.25 2 S Sean O'Hair 13.15 3 S Kenny Perry 15.40 4 S John Rollins 15.95 5 S Robert Allenby 16.05 6 S Jim Furyk 18.10 7 S Retief Goosen 21.90 8 S Nick Watney 27.15 9 S Scott Verplank 27.85 10 S Mark Wilson 28.35 11 S Jerry Kelly 30.80 12 S D.A. Points 30.80 13 S Jason Dufner 31.00 14 S Charles Howell III 31.70 15 S Andres Romero 32.15

In the top CLi rankings, I am going to pass on Perry and Rollins.

Below are my 5 picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Tiger Woods 9.25 2 S Sean O'Hair 13.15 3 S Robert Allenby 16.05 4 S Jim Furyk 18.10 5 S Retief Goosen 21.90

Transitions Championship

This week the US PGA Tour moves up the Florida coast (and from the east side to the west side of the Florida coast) to play the Transitions Championship.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Mark Calcavecchia 9.90 2 S Sean O'Hair 10.85 3 S K.J. Choi 11.55 4 S Kenny Perry 12.00 5 S Tim Clark 13.55 6 S David Toms 21.40 7 S Rod Pampling 24.65 8 S Nick Watney 28.05 9 S Matt Kuchar 30.35 10 S Heath Slocum 31.75 11 S Kevin Na 32.35 12 S Steve Stricker 32.85 13 S Brian Gay 35.55 14 S John Senden 36.15 15 S Lucas Glover 36.70

Only Mark Calcavecchia has a CLi less than 10, and just barely (9.90). So this means that this tournament will be a tough one to make good picks as there are no clear favorites.

I am going to pass on Calcavecchia even though he is at the top of the CLi rankings. He has been playing well lately, but I am not sure if he will be able to keep up his energy level for this tournament. So I am going to pass on him. Then I will pick the next 5 players in the CLi as they look solid.

Below are my 5 picks for the Transitions Championship:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Sean O'Hair 10.85 2 S K.J. Choi 11.55 3 S Kenny Perry 12.00 4 S Tim Clark 13.55 5 S David Toms 21.40

Puerto Rico Open

As mentioned in my previous post, this is another "two-tournament" week for the US PGA Tour. My previous post was on my picks for the CA Championship which is being played at Doral in Florida. This post is for my picks for the Puerto Rico Open.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Kevin Stadler 4.90 2 S Jerry Kelly 8.25 3 S Ted Purdy 14.80 4 S Bo Van Pelt 21.65 5 S John Merrick 23.90 6 S Jeffrey Overton 32.55 7 S Chris Smith 37.15 8 S Joe Durant 37.25 9 S Mark Brooks 37.50 10 S Tim Wilkinson 39.20 11 S Jeff Klauk 42.10 12 S Rich Beem 43.00 13 S Chris Riley 44.30 14 S Jason Day 47.10 15 S Nicholas Thompson 49.95

Interesting that Kevin Stadler is on the top of the CLi rankings list. I would not have imagined him being there. However, in looking at his analysis for the tournament (see Stadler analysis) it shows he played well here last year (finished 4th) and has played well in his previous two tournaments (Mayakoba Classic - 20th; AT&T Pebble Beach - 14th). So I will stick with him even though it seems like an odd pick.

I will also go with the 2nd player in the CLi rankings list: Jerry Kelly. He finished 2nd here last year. However, he missed the cut last week at the Honda Classic. One of my concerns with picking Kelly is that he might be wanting to play at Doral too much this week, as that is where the big boys are playing. And thus, he might lose his focus on playing well in Puerto Rico. This point might be put to bed in the fact that he played well in the Mayakoba Classic (he finished 6th), which was played opposite another World Golf Championship event -- the Accenture World Match Play. So I am going to stick with him this week.

I am going to pass on Purdy and van Pelt. Then will pick Merrick and Overton. Merrick has been playing solid this season, and Overton is proving he can play well in windy conditions (wind will most likely be a factor this week in Puerto Rico, just like last week at the Honda Classic).

For my final pick, I am going to go all the way down to the 12th spot in the CLi rankings to pick Rich Beem. This pick is more for supporting his cause of getting sponsors on his own this year, which is courageous in itself these days. Hopefully his hard work will pay off this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Puerto Open Open:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Kevin Stadler 4.90 2 S Jerry Kelly 8.25 3 S John Merrick 23.90 4 S Jeffrey Overton 32.55 5 S Rich Beem 43.00

CA Championship

This is another "two-tournament" week for the US PGA Tour. The CA Championship is being played at Doral in Florida. The Puerto Rico Open is a fairly new tournament which is only in its second year.. This post is for picks regarding the CA Championship. I will submit another post for the Puerto Rico Open later.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Geoff Ogilvy 6.40 2 S Zach Johnson 10.55 3 S Tiger Woods 14.05 4 S Phil Mickelson 14.40 5 S Paul Casey 16.00 6 S K.J. Choi 17.40 7 S Robert Allenby 17.90 8 S Kenny Perry 20.15 9 S Steve Stricker 22.80 10 S Luke Donald 22.95 11 S Retief Goosen 23.55 12 S Tim Clark 24.75 13 S Jim Furyk 25.25 14 S Sergio Garcia 25.40 15 S John Rollins 25.95

The top 5 players in the CLi rankings all look like good picks to me. It is hard to go agains Ogilvy, Woods, and Mickelson at Doral. And then Johnson and Casey have been playing some good golf lately and they shine in big events like this. So I am going to trust the CLi completely this week and not make any adjustments.

Below are my 5 picks for the CA Championship:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Geoff Ogilvy 6.40 2 S Zach Johnson 10.55 3 S Tiger Woods 14.05 4 S Phil Mickelson 14.40 5 S Paul Casey 16.00

Honda Classic

This week the US PGA Tour moves from the west coast to the east coast for the start of the Florida swing of tournaments. As with last year, the Honda Classic is the first tournament in the Florida swing this year.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Luke Donald 3.75 2 S Mark Wilson 7.50 3 S Ernie Els 13.80 4 S Robert Allenby 13.85 5 S Camilo Villegas 14.55 6 S Boo Weekley 16.25 7 S Lucas Glover 18.45 8 S Ben Crane 18.55 9 S Mark Calcavecchia 20.55 10 S Justin Rose 24.40 11 S Michael Letzig 26.05 12 S Jerry Kelly 27.30 13 S Ted Purdy 30.05 14 S J.J. Henry 31.25 15 S Justin Leonard 34.50

I really want to pick Luke Donald this week as he is a clear favorite on paper and in the CLi rankings. However, it makes me nervous that he "twinged" his wrist last week during his last match in the Accenture World Match Play. He "twinged" his wrist to an extent that he flew to New York the next day (or over night) to have his specialist look at it. It makes me a little worried that he would jump that fast. Even though the specialist said nothing serious is wrong with his wrist, I am going to pass on Donald this week.

Going from the 2nd spot in the CLi rankings, I am going to pick the next five players. Wilson won last week in the US PGA Tour event in Mexico and won the tournament in 2007. Els plays well in Florida and he now has his house in the West Palm Beach area (where the Honda is now played). Allenby is playing well. Villegas plays well in Florida, as it is second home (apart from Columbia). Weekley is a fan favorite in Florida and south Florida is home to him as is the entire state (even though he is from the panhandle of Florida).

Below are my 5 picks for the Honda Classic:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Mark Wilson 7.50 2 S Ernie Els 13.80 3 S Robert Allenby 13.85 4 S Camilo Villegas 14.55 5 S Boo Weekley 16.25