AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the Monterrey to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

#	Player	CLi
1	Retief Goosen	3.35
2	Dustin Johnson	3.70
3	Mike Weir	6.60
4	Phil Mickelson	8.35
5	Tim Clark	9.20
6	Jim Furyk	11.90
7	Matt Kuchar	14.60
8	Rory Sabbatini	19.30
9	Kevin Sutherland	23.30
10	Luke Donald	25.05
11	Vaughn Taylor	25.60
12	Sean O'Hair	27.50
13	Davis Love III	27.85
14	Marc Leishman	28.40
15	Spencer Levin	30.45

This week's CLi ranking has 5 players with a CLi figure less than 10. This should make it easy and more comfortable to pick those players. However, I am going to skip over last year's champion, Dustin Johnson, so I can pick a Jim Furyk who is further down the list (one spot down the list). Johnson won last year at Pebble Beach, and he played well last week at Riveria. However, I am not sure if he can keep that trend up. As well, I like Furyk this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

#	Player	CLi
1	Retief Goosen	3.35
2	Mike Weir	6.60
3	Phil Mickelson	8.35
4	Tim Clark	9.20
5	Jim Furyk	11.90

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Retief Goosen
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Brandt Snedeker
4. Mike Weir
5. Luke Donald

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We have 2 players in common this week: Goosen and Weir.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Northern Trust Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Northern Trust Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Steve Stricker | 1 | $1,152,000
2. Robert Allenby | 27 | $45,440
3. Rory Sabbatini | 76 (MC) | $0
4. Phil Mickelson | 45 | $20,480
5. Charles Howell III | 108 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Steve Stricker | 1 | $1,152,000
2. Phil Mickelson | 45 | $20,480
3. Robert Allenby | 27 | $45,440
4. Matt Kuchar | 20 | $66,743
5. Rory Sabbatini | 76 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,217,920	$1,284,663	TI
Avg Rank	51.4	33.8	TI
Made Cut	3	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Northern Trust Open

This week the US PGA Tour is just north of Los Angeles in Pacific Palisades to play the Northern Trust Open. The tournament is held at the famous Riveria Country Club.

This week I introduce the Tour Outsider vs Tour Insider again [ hat tip to Mr. Ed Cushing on pushing me on this one ]. So for the remainder of the year I will post my picks against pgatour.com's Rob Bolton. Even though he is not titled "Tour Insider" by pgatour.com, for the sake of this blog, we will call him the Tour Insider.

Bolton posts the Power Rankings for pgatour.com. His Power Rankings usually consist of ten players. So I will take the top 5 players from his list and compare him to my 5 picks for each tournament this year. For readers that are familiar with how I compared results in the past, I look at total winnings by the 5 players picked, the average rank for all 5 players, and the number of players that make the cut in our picks. For each tournament, there will be a win, lose, or draw between the two of us. Hopefully this will add to the value of reading the picks.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Northern Trust Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	2.95
2	Robert Allenby	4.80
3	Rory Sabbatini	5.65
4	Phil Mickelson	6.75
5	Tim Clark	11.60
6	Charles Howell III	15.35
7	K.J. Choi	20.00
8	Bubba Watson	21.45
9	John Rollins	21.55
10	Adam Scott	21.75
11	Jim Furyk	21.80
12	Matt Kuchar	21.80
13	Ernie Els	22.45
14	Angel Cabrera	22.65
15	Carl Pettersson	24.80

Nice. There are 4 players that have CLi figures below 10. That is a good sign that 1) the CLi calculation has enough data to compute a better forecasts, and 2) the are several clear players that have an advantage over the rest of the field. So, from that logic, I will stick with the first 4 players in the CLi rankings: Stricker, Allenby, Sabbatini, and Mickelson.

For my 5th pick, I would normally stick with Tim Clark. Very seldom do I skip over Clark as he is a fighter on the course and plays to the end of the tournament. However, I see a player in the 6th spot of the CLi rankings that has played well at Riveria and is playing well this year leading up to this tournament. That is Charles Howell, III. I am going to pick Howell for my 5th player.

Below are my 5 picks for the Northern Trust Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	2.95
2	Robert Allenby	4.80
3	Rory Sabbatini	5.65
4	Phil Mickelson	6.75
5	Charles Howell III	15.35

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Steve Stricker
2. Phil Mickelson
3. Robert Allenby
4. Matt Kuchar
5. Rory Sabbatini

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Northern Trust Open

We have 4 players in common this week: Stricker, Mickelson, Allenby, and Sabbatini. So the difference in our picks is Kuchar (Tour Insider) and Howell (Tour Outsider). Play well Howell.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Northern Trust Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Farmer's Insurance Open

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the southern coast of California to play at Torrey Pines. The tournament has a new name, the Farmer's Insurance Open. Buick formerly sponsored the event when it was called the Buick Invitational.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Farmer's Insurance Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	5.05
2	Charles Howell III	6.30
3	Robert Allenby	10.50
4	Bill Haas	11.90
5	Nick Watney	12.35
6	Bubba Watson	12.90
7	Brandt Snedeker	13.35
8	Matthew Jones	13.95
9	Lucas Glover	14.35
10	John Rollins	16.15
11	Troy Matteson	19.65
12	Kevin Sutherland	22.30
13	Ryan Palmer	22.50
14	Chad Campbell	22.55
15	Jeff Klauk	24.35

It is good to see Ernie Els on the top of the list this week. It has been a long time since I have seen the CLi rankings have Els at the top of the list. So I will be quick to pick him as my first pick this week. Then I will continue down the list and pick Howell, Allenby, skip over Haas, pick Watney and Bubba Watson.

The younger Haas (Bill is the son of Champions Tour player, Jay Haas) won last week for the first time at the Bob Hope. Being that it was his first win, I think he is going to be distracted this week due to not having won before. The exposure of winning is usually more than what first-time winners think it will be. So I see him putting together a decent tournament, but will have one bad round that will put him at the lower end of the players that make the cut.

As for picking Howell, he plays well at Torrey Pines. He has not had a good couple of years of late. However, he has placed in the top 30 in the last 3 tournament he has played in, with a 5t place at the Sony Open. So I am hoping that he will continue playing well this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	5.05
2	Charles Howell III	6.30
3	Robert Allenby	10.50
4	Nick Watney	12.35
5	Bubba Watson	12.90

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

I have had several comments from readers saying that they want to have a "competitor" again for this blog....another "Tour Insider". The suggestions that have been made have been good ones, and hopefully I will be able to add the "competition" back into the readings on this blog in the near future. Readers say that the competition, as well as the additional picks from another person, makes this blog more useful.

Bob Hope Classic

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the mainland from Hawaii to play the Bob Hope Classic in California.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Bob Hope Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tim Clark	5.20
2	Chad Campbell	8.85
3	Pat Perez	10.50
4	Webb Simpson	19.40
5	Ryan Moore	19.70
6	Ryan Palmer	20.00
7	Bill Lunde	20.40
8	Justin Leonard	22.00
9	Scott Verplank	22.70
10	Charley Hoffman	24.15
11	Martin Laird	24.40
12	Scott Piercy	24.65
13	Vaughn Taylor	25.45
14	Joe Ogilvie	25.50
15	John Merrick	27.10

I am going to stick with the top 3 in the CLi rankings: Clark, Campbell, and Perez. Then I am going to skip over Webb Simpson as he is a little green and I don't know if he will consistently hold up this week. He has played well in this tournament, but I don't know how he will continue to play at this tournament (hmmmm....that is with most things in the future). Then I am going to pick Moore and last week's winner, Ryan Palmer.

Down the list in the CLi rankings, there are several players that also look good which I didn't pick. For example, Justin Leonard and Scott Verplank. However, I will stick with the 5 players that I selected

Below are my 5 picks for the Bob Hope Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tim Clark	5.20
2	Chad Campbell	8.85
3	Pat Perez	10.50
4	Ryan Moore	19.70
5	Ryan Palmer	20.00

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Bob Hope Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Sony Open in Hawaii

This week the US PGA Tour stays in Hawaii to play the second tournament of the 2010 season: the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Even though this is the second tournament of the season, it is the first full field tournament. Players should be "moving and grooving" and itching to play well so they get off to a good start for the season.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Sony Open.

#	Player	Cli
1	Rory Sabbatini	5.80
2	Steve Stricker	9.55
3	Zach Johnson	9.80
4	Troy Matteson	14.10
5	Stewart Cink	19.95
6	Stephen Ames	20.40
7	Y.E. Yang	20.80
8	Tim Clark	21.20
9	George McNeill	21.75
10	Chad Campbell	23.20
11	Pat Perez	24.10
12	Luke Donald	26.00
13	Ernie Els	27.20
14	Jeff Klauk	27.80
15	Shigeki Maruyama	28.60

I am going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings this week: Sabbatini, Stricker, Johnson, Matteson, and Cink. Out of these 5, Matteson is my questionable player in terms of fans knowing him. However, he has played 31st or better in the last 4 Sony Opens, with an 8th place finish in 2008. Of the 16 rounds he has played in this tournament, he has shot in the 60s 11 times, with the his highest score being 72. So he plays well and consistent in this tournament.

I am solely relying on intelligence of the CLi. Let's hope that is a good strategy this week. Players should at least be enjoying the warm weather when it is still rather cold in many other players in the northern hemisphere.

Below are my 5 picks for the Sony Open:

#	Player	Cli
1	Rory Sabbatini	5.80
2	Steve Stricker	9.55
3	Zach Johnson	9.80
4	Troy Matteson	14.10
5	Stewart Cink	19.95

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Sony Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
7	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

SBS Championship

Ok, I am now back to try to post on a regular basis my picks each week using the Golf CLi. Until I find a person in the media to compete with, I will just post my picks.

This week is the beginning of the 2010 season for the US PGA Tour, with the tournament being the SBS Championship. This tournament has changed its name this year with the title sponsor change. In the past this tournament has been called the Mercedes-Benz Championship since Mercedes-Benz had sponsored the event. However, this year SBS Technologies has become the title sponsor for the tournament and thus has earned the right to change the name of the tournament.

The first tournament, as is normally the case on the US PGA Tour, takes place in Hawaii with a limited field tournament. Only players that won an official money event in the 2009 season are eligible to play in this tournament. Currently the field consists of 28 players.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the SBS Championship.

	Player	CLi
1	Stephen Ames	4.20
2	Troy Matteson	4.90
3	Nick Watney	5.20
4	Steve Stricker	5.50
5	Angel Cabrera	7.60
6	Lucas Glover	7.80
7	Zach Johnson	8.50
8	Kenny Perry	9.50
9	Retief Goosen	10.10
10	Dustin Johnson	10.10
11	Matt Kuchar	12.10
12	Stewart Cink	12.40
13	Sean O'Hair	13.30
14	Martin Laird	13.90
15	Rory Sabbatini	13.90

It is difficult to pick for a tournament that is early in the season, especially the first tournament of the season since we don't have much knowledge of how the players worked duriung the off season. As well, with this being a limited field tournament and with the tournament taking place in such a nice place as Hawaii (i.e. a vacation spot), one doesn't know if the player is going to focus on winning or just go through the motions during this tournament. However, in another sense, since the tournament is a limited field there are less player factors involved because there are fewer players to pick from.

This week I am going to go with Ames, Watney, Stricker, Johnson, and Perry. I tried to pick players that I feel are focused on winning this week and who will not play around during the tournament. Ames is the caveat in this pick, as he might not be focused. However, he is a favorite based upon the CLi so I have stuck with him in my picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the SBS Championship:

	Player	CLi
1	Stephen Ames	4.20
2	Nick Watney	5.20
3	Steve Stricker	5.50
4	Zach Johnson	8.50
5	Kenny Perry	9.50

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the SBS Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	0%	0%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	30%	30%