Tuesday, February 7, 2012

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

Time is starting to move fast for this year's season. Five tournaments have already been played, and it won't be long before the US PGA Tour will be finishing up the West Coast swing and heading to the Florida Swing.  However, before getting ahead of myself, it is time to focus on this week's tournament.

This week, the US PGA Tour is on the famed (and beautiful) Monterrey pennisula to play the charismatic AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am at the Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am.

# Player CLi 
1 Spencer Levin 7.95
2 John Mallinger 13.55
3 D.A. Points 14.50
4 Sean O'Hair 17.60
5 Rickie Fowler 19.75
6 Bryce Molder 21.25
7 Bob Estes 22.15
8 Brian Gay 25.40
9 Josh Teater 26.30
10 Jim Furyk 27.40
11 Rod Pampling 27.70
12 Brandt Snedeker 27.70
13 Vijay Singh 28.50
14 James Driscoll 28.95
15 Phil Mickelson 29.80

Even though the CLi figures are high for this tournament (only one player has a CLi figure below 10),  I am still going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings: Levin (analysis), Mallinger (analysis), Points (analysis), O'Hair (analysis), and Fowler (analysis).

Levin is tops on the list.  He has played well, and could have easily won last week running away in Arizona.  However, he let his nerves get to him during the final round (playing it safe, rather than staying strong in his mind) and Stanley made up for his previous week's final hole collapse.  It would be cool if Levin did the same thing as Stanley, and pulled a win this week in the AT&T after his final round performance in Arizona last week.  It will come down to mental toughness, because he is definitely on his game physically with his swing.  He placed 4th last year in this tournament and has never missed the cut in the three times he has played in the event.  He has played four of the five tournaments this year, and has made the cut in all four of the tournaments.

If you take out last year's performance in this event, Mallinger has played well in this event.  He has two 3rd place finishes (2007 and 2008).  He has played sporaic in the three tournaments he has played in this year.  But one of those three events, he placed 2nd (at the Humana Challenge -- which has the same feel as the AT&T being a pro-am event). 

Points won this event last year, and has two 8th place finishes in the three tournaments he has played in this year.  He finished 45th last week in Arizona.

O'Hair has placed respectively in this tournament the past three years, placing 31st (2011), 35th (2010), and 10th (2009).  In the three tournaments he has played in this year, he has finished 2nd (Sony Open), 17th (Hyundai Tournament of Champions), and 45th (Waste Management Phoenix Open).

Fowler has finally made into my picks this year.  Some have suggested that he should have been there prior to now as he is a California boy, loves playing in California, this is the West Coast swing where tournaments are in California, he is a solid player, etc.  Well, now he is in my picks for a California tournament.  Fowler has placed 27th the one time he has played the tournament (in 2010), and has placed 13th and 26th in the first two tournaments he has played in this year.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am:

# Player CLi 
1 Spencer Levin 7.95
2 John Mallinger 13.55
3 D.A. Points 14.50
4 Sean O'Hair 17.60
5 Rickie Fowler 19.75

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Bryce Molder
  2. Tiger Woods
  3. Spencer Levin
  4. Nick Watney
  5. Hunter Mahan
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

We have 1 player in common this week: Levin.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

3 comments:

  1. Looks like you're off to a pretty good start JM. If I added right it's 3-1-1 against Bolton so far. A two game lead for the CLi... -BM

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    Replies
    1. Yep, unlike the past two years against Bolton, the Outsider and the CLi have an early lead. :-) Hopefully the lead will continue throughout the season. - JM

      Delete
  2. Levin
    Woods
    Baddeley
    Watney
    Lamely

    ReplyDelete