Tuesday, June 25, 2013

AT&T National

This week the US PGA Tour is in D.C. to play Tiger's tournament, the AT&T National...without Tiger being present (he is out nursing an injury).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T National.

# Player CLi 
1  Hunter Mahan 7.60
2  Bo Van Pelt 17.55
3  Chris Stroud 17.70
4  Adam Scott 18.05
5  Stuart Appleby 18.30
6  Jason Day 20.05
7  Ryan Palmer 20.35
8  Rickie Fowler 22.10
9  Charles Howell III 29.30
10  John Rollins 30.05
11  Fredrik Jacobson 30.15
12  Graham Delaet 31.60
13  Robert Allenby 32.50
14  John Huh 33.00
15  J.J. Henry 34.30

The only player with a CLi figure below 10 is Mahan (analysis), with a CLi figure of 7.60.  Thus, I am going to pick him first.  Since 2006, he has finished no worse than 30th (not including the WD before the start of the tournament in 2010).  His lowest finish is 2nd (in 2009) and he finished 8th last year.  His average rank in the tournament since 2006 is in the tournament is 14.3.  He placed 24th last week at the Travelers Championship and 4th two weeks ago at the U.S. Open.  After missing 4 consecutive cuts in March, April, and May, he has placed no worse than 26th in the 5 tournaments he has played since the middle of May.

My second pick is Van Pelt (analysis).  He finished 2nd in the tournament last year, and 11th the previous two years.  He has played some sold golf the last month, having no great finishes, but also no poor finishes (hasn't missed a cut the past 7 tournaments).

For the next three players, I am going to skip over Stroud (analysis), and then pick Scott (analysis).  Then I am going to skip over Appleby (analysis), and the pick Day (analysis).  For my final pick, I am going to skip over Palmer (analysis) to pick Fowler (analysis).

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T National:

# Player CLi 
1  Hunter Mahan 7.60
2  Bo Van Pelt 17.55
3  Adam Scott 18.05
4  Jason Day 20.05
5  Rickie Fowler 22.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Jason Day
  2. Brandt Snedeker
  3. Hunter Mahan
  4. Adam Scott
  5. Billy Horschel
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T National

We have 3 players in common this week: Day, Mahan, and Scott.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T National:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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