Tuesday, September 10, 2013

BMW Championship

After a week off, the US PGA Tour is in Chicago to play the 3rd FedEx Playoff event: the BMW Championship.  The event was traditionally played at Cog Hill in Chicago, however, has moved courses the past several years -- last year it was at Crooked Stick in Indiana and this year it is at Conway Farms in Chicago.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the BMW Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  Jim Furyk 5.80
2  Tiger Woods 6.70
3  Justin Rose 7.30
4  Zach Johnson 8.90
5  Steve Stricker 9.60
6  Adam Scott 10.00
7  John Huh 11.70
8  Matt Kuchar 13.40
9  Jason Dufner 14.30
10  Sergio Garcia 14.60
11  Graham Delaet 16.40
12  Rory McIlroy 17.70
13  Phil Mickelson 18.00
14  Gary Woodland 18.20
15  Keegan Bradley 21.40

As with the last tournament, the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship, the top 5 players have CLi figures below 10 -- the 6th player even has a CLi of 10, which makes it difficult to pass up on that player (Adam Scott).  This is a good sign that the CLi has a good indication of who has the highest probability of playing well.  However, I am still going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.

Furyk (analysis) hasn't finished worse than 22nd in this event since 2003, with an average rank of 8.0.  He won the event in 2005, and finished 2nd and 3rd in 2009 and 2008 respectively.  He finished 9th in the event last year.  Since the beginning of August, Furyk has played in 4 tournaments, and finished in the top 10 in 3 of them: 6th - Barclays Classic, 2nd - PGA Championship, and 9th - Bridgestone Invitational.  He finished 22nd in the other tournament -- the Deutsch U.S. Bank Championship.

Woods (analysis) might not be playing up to par compared to what the media compares him to.  However, his results have been rather good.  Since August he has won a tournament (Bridgestone Invitational) and finished 2nd in another (Barclays Classic).  In the other two tournament he has played in Since August, he didn't fair as well -- placing 65th (Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship) and 40th (PGA Championship).  It is the uncharacteristic inconsistency that has thrown the media for a loop.  In this event, he tends to play well -- he actually tends to play well in Chicago-area tournaments.  Since 2003, he has won this event 3 times, placed 2nd twice, finished no worse than 15th, and has an average rank of 4.1.

I won't go into details for Rose, Johnson, and Stricker, but you can view their detailed analysis from the following links: Rose - analysis, Johnson - analysis, and Stricker - analysis.  In addition, you can view Scott's analysis for the tournament.

Below are my 5 picks for the BMW Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  Jim Furyk 5.80
2  Tiger Woods 6.70
3  Justin Rose 7.30
4  Zach Johnson 8.90
5  Steve Stricker 9.60

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Justin Rose
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Matt Kuchar
  4. Steve Stricker
  5. Henrik Stenson
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: BMW Championship

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Rose and Stricker.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the BMW Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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