Wednesday, September 18, 2013

TOUR Championship

This week the US PGA Tour has its final FedEx Playoff event, the BMW Championship.  The event is being held at East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta, Georgia, with only 30 players in the field (which makes it a little easier to select 5 players who will play well this week).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the TOUR Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  Jim Furyk 3.70
2  Zach Johnson 8.25
3  Tiger Woods 8.65
4  Sergio Garcia 8.70
5  Jason Day 9.25
6  Justin Rose 10.80
7  Steve Stricker 11.20
8  Nick Watney 11.60
9  Adam Scott 11.65
10  Hunter Mahan 12.10
11  Brandt Snedeker 12.60
12  Luke Donald 12.85
13  Bill Haas 13.20
14  Henrik Stenson 13.35
15  Gary Woodland 13.75

I am making it easy on myself and will be sticking with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.  They all have CLi figures less than 10, which is a good sign that the CLi has figured out they have a fairly good probability of playing well this week.

Furyk (analysis) was leading going into the final round last week at the BMW Championship before placing 3rd behind Zach Johnson and Nick Watney.  He shot 59 in the tournament, so he is playing well currently.  He placed 7th in this tournament last year, didn't make the championship in in 2011, and won the event in 2010.

Johnson (analysis) won last week, beating out Fuyrk in the last round, and has finished in the top 8 in 6 of the last 7 tournaments he has played in.  So he is also playing well at this time.  As for the TOUR Championship, he has faired in the middle pack 4 of the 6 times he has played in the tournament.  He has a 9th place finish in 2010 and a 2nd placed finish in 2007.

Woods (analysis) has been playing inconsistently this year compared to his past play.  However, he is playing better than most players.  He finished 11th last week at the BMW Championship, and was 2nd several weeks ago in the Barclays.  East Lake tends to treat him well.  He has finished 8th (2012), 2nd (2009), 1st (2007), 2nd (2005), and 2nd (2004) the last 5 times he has played in this event.

Garcia (analysis) finished 15th last year in this week, but had a 2nd place finish in 2008 and a 4th place finish in 2007.  He has not necessarily placed great in the tournaments leading up to this week, but he has been hitting it well and playing consistent -- especially for him.  His best finish this past month was 4th at the Deustche U.S. Bank Championship.

Day (analysis) finished 6th in this event the last time he played in it (2011) and finished 4th last week at the BMW Championship.  So has showed some good play recently and has had prior success at this event.

Below are my 5 picks for the TOUR Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  Jim Furyk 3.70
2  Zach Johnson 8.25
3  Tiger Woods 8.65
4  Sergio Garcia 8.70
5  Jason Day 9.25

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Hunter Mahan
  2. Brandt Snedeker
  3. Luke Donald
  4. Jason Day
  5. Zach Johnson
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: TOUR Championship

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Day and Johnson.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the TOUR Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to

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