Sony Open in Hawaii

The second tournament of the 2013 US PGA Tour season stays in Hawaii to play the Sony Open.   The event is the first full field event of the season, since last week's Hyundai Tournament of Champions (actually the tournament ended early this week due to poor weather conditions) was a limited field of 30 players.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Sony Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Dustin Johnson	9.70
2	Charles Howell III	9.75
3	Brian Gay	11.05
4	Matthew Every	12.40
5	Keegan Bradley	14.15
6	Brendon De Jonge	20.10
7	Jerry Kelly	20.35
8	Jimmy Walker	20.95
9	Zach Johnson	21.60
10	Scott Piercy	21.85
11	Carl Pettersson	22.65
12	Chad Campbell	22.70
13	Davis Love III	22.75
14	Ryan Palmer	24.10
15	Mark Wilson	24.75

Note the high CLi figures compared to last week's Hyundai Tournament of Champions.  The lowest CLi close to 10 (Johnson, 9.70).  That is one indication that the CLi is not as good an indicator in this tournament as it was for the Hyundai last week.  Both tournaments don't have much data to go on due to the two month lay off between last year's season and the start of this year's season.  However, this tournament has 156 players to compare against one another rather than just 30 players.  The increase in players increases the number of unknown factors which makes it difficult to predict which players have the best chance of playing well.

Even though the CLi figures are high, and the unknowns have increased this tournament, I am going to still stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings: Johnson (analysis), Howell III (analysis), Gay (analysis), Every (analysis), and Bradley (analysis).  3 of the players have solid records in this tournament (Johnson, Howell III, and Gay), and the other two played well last week in the Hyundai (Every and Bradley).  Johnson and Bradley have also played well in this tournament.

Below are my 5 picks for the Sony Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Dustin Johnson	9.70
2	Charles Howell III	9.75
3	Brian Gay	11.05
4	Matthew Every	12.40
5	Keegan Bradley	14.15

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Tim Clark
2. Carl Pettersson
3. Charles Howell III
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Brendon de Jonge

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Sony Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Howell III and Johnson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Sony Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Hyundai Tournament of Champions Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to see how the results turned out....after a Tuesday finish in Hawaii to conclude a 54-hole tournament.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Ian Poulter | 9 | $175,000
2. Ryan Moore | 28 | $63,000 <- ouch, 2nd to last in the tournament
3. Brandt Snedeker | 3 | $432,000
4. Scott Piercy | 13 | $120,400
5. Matt Kuchar | 9 | $175,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Matt Kuchar | 9 | $175,000
2. Dustin Johnson | 1 | $1,140,000 <- congrats, a winner
3. Scott Piercy | 13 | $120,400
4. Ian Poulter | 9 | $175,000
5. Steve Stricker | 2 | $665,000 <- nice, also a 2nd place

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$965,400	$2,275,400	TI
Avg Rank	12.4	6.8	TI
Made Cut	5	5	Draw
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Bolton has started out with a bang!! He picked a winner (Johnson) and a 2nd place finisher (Stricker).  So he takes a lead after the first tournament of the season.

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone!!!

We are now onto a new season: 2013.  This week the tour starts the season off with a limited field tournament in Hawaii, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Only the players that won an event last year (2012) are invited to play. Of the players that won on the US PGA Tour last year, 30 have accepted the invitation to play in the tournament.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

#	Player	CLi
1	Ian Poulter	2.80
2	Ryan Moore	3.05
3	Brandt Snedeker	4.60
4	Scott Piercy	6.60
5	Matt Kuchar	6.70
6	Nick Watney	8.10
7	Steve Stricker	8.15
8	Carl Pettersson	8.40
9	Jason Dufner	9.25
10	Bill Haas	9.30
11	Charlie Beljan	10.00
12	Tommy Gainey	10.25
13	Hunter Mahan	10.50
14	Jonas Blixt	10.75
15	Zach Johnson	11.30

As with every year, the first tournament of the season provides two factors that create unknowns.  One unknown factor is the 2 month layoff between the end of the 2012 season and the start of this year's season.  And the second unknown factor is that there are 9 players (1/3 of the field) that have not played in this tournament before.  This makes it more difficult for people to pick who will play well, and makes computer analysis more difficult since there is less data to use in formulas.  However, I am going to stick with the CLi results since it has done a rather respectable job in the past with this tournament (2012 picks, 2011 picks, 2010 picks, 2009 picks, 2008 picks).

The top 5 players in the CLi are Poulter (analysis), Moore (analysis), Snedeker (analysis), Piercy (analysis), and Kuchar (analysis).  There are 11 players that have a CLi figure of 10 or less, which is a very good sign that the CLi calculation is showing some intelligence.  However, there are only 30 players in the field this week, which helps the CLi calculation's odds.

Below are my 5 picks for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions :

#	Player	CLi
1	Ian Poulter	2.80
2	Ryan Moore	3.05
3	Brandt Snedeker	4.60
4	Scott Piercy	6.60
5	Matt Kuchar	6.70

As with the past 3 years, Rob Bolton is the Tour Insider, and the individual that I will compare my picks to this season (for the US PGA Tour).

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Matt Kuchar
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Scott Piercy
4. Ian Poulter
5. Steve Stricker

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Hyundai Tournament of Champions

We have 3 players in common this week: Kuchar, Piercy, and Poulter

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Summing up the Year

This is a post to sum up the results for the year between the Tour Outsider (me) and the Tour Insider (Rob Bolton -- for a 3rd year) for the 2012 season.  Usually I make this post at the end of the US PGA Tour season (i.e. after the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic), which was in November.  However, this year I was pre-occupied with finishing up my doctoral studies in November and December at the University of Louisville, while also teaching two courses (at Western Michigan University).  Therefore, I didn't get around to posting the end of year results until now, the last day of 2012.

Unlike the previous two years when Bolton was the Tour Insider, I was able to one-up him in 2012.  He had beaten me handsomely the previous two years, while graciously and unknowingly playing the Tour Insider role in my competition between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider.

Prior to having Bolton as the Tour Insider, I had not lost to the Tour Insider (the first 3 years of the competition).  In 2010, I lost to Bolton -- 19-21-4 (TO, TI, Draws), which was a close race.  In 2011, I lost in a big fashion to Bolton -- 12-30-3 (TO, TI, Draws).  However, in 2012, I came out ahead of Bolton for the first time -- 23-18-5 (TO, TI, Draws).

In analyzing the results this year, I have put together a summary of some of the results.  As with last year, when looking at our combined picks, we did rather well.  So if you used both of our picks, things turn out well for you.

In the 46 tournaments that we made picks, we had some winners, along with a good number of top 5s, top 10s, and top 25s.  Below is a summary of the aggregate figures for the 2012 season.

	TO	TI
Number of Tournaments	46	46
Number of Picks	230	230
Total Earnings	$33,755,837	$37,211,216
Average Rank	37.72	34.70
Number of Made Cuts	188	195
% of Made Cuts	82%	85%
Number of Winners	11	12
% of Wnners	24%	26%
Number of Top 5s	47	42
% of Tops 5s	20%	18%
Number of Top 10s	75	73
% of Top 10s	33%	32%
Number of Top 25s	110	120
% of Top 25s	48%	52%

In looking at our numbers this year, Bolton did better than I did in total earnings, average rank, and number of made cuts.  He earned more money than I did (total earnings: $33.8m compared to $37.2), his average rank was less (37.72 compared to 34.70), and his players made more cuts than mine (188 to 195).  He also did better in number of winners (11 to 12).

Since I won the number of tournaments, this means that he did very well in several of the tournaments, but I did better on average for each tournament.  This is supported in the number of top 5s and number of top 10s, where I had better statistics than he did.  In addition, I only had one less winner.  So I didn't lose a lot of in the earnings because of not picking a winner.  This is important since winners earn a lot more than 2nd place finishers in a tournament.

Compared to last year, we both earned more money (although, we are not comparing apples to apples since we had one more tournament to pick from this year compared to last year).  I earned $33.8m (last year $25.3m), and he earned $37.2 (last year $31.8m).  In addition, we both did better in the other  respective categories compared to last year, including in average rank, and number of made cuts (%), number of winners (%), number of top 5s (%), number of top 10s (%), and number of top 25s (%).

Here's to 2013!!!

Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Tommy Gainey | 40 | $16,046
2. Davis Love III | 40 | $16,046
3. Henrik Stenson | 19 | $49,454
4. Charles Howell III | 15 | $77,550
5. Robert Garrigus | 2 | $413,600

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Robert Garrigus | 2 | $413,600
2. Chris Kirk | 74 | $8,977
3. Charles Howell III | 15 | $77,550
4. Brendon De Jonge | 19 | $49,454
5. Tommy Gainey | 40 | $16,046

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$572,696	$565,627	TO
Avg Rank	23.2	30.0	TO
Made Cut	5	5	Draw
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 23 wins to the Tour Outsider, 18 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

I edged Bolton out in the earnings this week, and also clipped him in the average rank.  A win for the Tour Outsider. :-)

Children's Miracle Network Hospital Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is back in the United States to play the last official money event of the year and the last event of the Fall Finish.  The tournament, the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic is a fun end of the year tournament for the players as they get to take their families to Disney World in Florida.  However, players that are on the "125 bubble" (players need to be ranked 125 or better to keep their card for next year) might not be having as much fun as the other players in the field.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tommy Gainey	10.15
2	Davis Love III	12.05
3	Henrik Stenson	15.30
4	Charles Howell III	15.95
5	Robert Garrigus	17.80
6	Alexandre Rocha	20.05
7	Justin Leonard	22.05
8	Gary Woodland	22.85
9	Tim Petrovic	24.50
10	Brendon De Jonge	28.10
11	D.A. Points	29.75
12	Tim Herron	30.05
13	Mathew Goggin	32.15
14	Sean O'Hair	32.50
15	Steven Bowditch	33.85

The CLi rankings are high, with the lowest CLi figure being 10.15 (Gainey).  That usually indicates that it is difficult to predict which players will play well based upon past statistics (which the CLi uses).

However, when examining the details behind each of the CLi figures for the top players, the top five players look like good picks in this tournament.

Gainey (analysis) won several weeks ago at the McGladrey Classic.  He didn't play well last year in this event (missed the cut, finished 93rd).   But in the only other time he played, in 2008, he finished 2nd.

Love III (analysis) placed 4th in the McGladrey Classic several weeks ago when Gainey came from behind to beat him (Gainey shot 60 in the final round).  As with Gainey, Love didn't play well last year in this event (missed the cut, finished 76th).  However, placed 19th in 2010, won the event in 2008, and placed 5th in 2006 and 2003.

Stenson (analysis) has finished 26th, 27th, and 6th in the last 3 events he has played.  He finished 12th last year in this event, which is the only time he has played in the event.

In his last two outing, Howell III (analysis) finished 7th at the McGladrey Classic and 11th in the Frys.com.  He didn't play well last year in this event (missed the cut, finished 76th).  However, he finished 9th in 2010 and in 2006.

Garrigus (analysis) played well two weeks ago in the CIMB Classic where he finished 2nd.  However, he didn't play stellar last week in China at the HSBC Champions tournament.  And as is with Gainey, Love III, and Howell III, he missed the cut in the event last year (finished 88th).  However, he likes this event as he won it in 2010.

Here are my picks for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tommy Gainey	10.15
2	Davis Love III	12.05
3	Henrik Stenson	15.30
4	Charles Howell III	15.95
5	Robert Garrigus	17.80

It is interesting that I have two "thirds" in my picks -- Davis Love III and Charles Howell III. :-)

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Robert Garrigus
2. Chris Kirk
3. Charles Howell III
4. Brendon De Jonge
5. Tommy Gainey

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Garrigus, Howell III, and Gainey

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
60	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

HSBC Champions Review

It is now time to review the picks for the HSBC Champions to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Luke Donald | 18 | $75,000
2. Justin Rose | 24 | $62,250
3. Peter Hanson | 24 | $62,250
4. Ian Poulter | 1 | $1,200,000
5. Phil Mickelson | 2 | $417,500

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Justin Rose | 24 | $62,250
2. Luke Donald | 18 | $75,000
3. Louis Oosthuizen | 6 | $190,000
4. Dustin Johnson | 39 | $47,000
5. Ian Poulter | 1 | $1,200,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,817,000	$1,574,250	TO
Avg Rank	13.8	17.5	TO
Made Cut	5	5	Draw
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 22 wins to the Tour Outsider, 18 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

We both picked Poulter this tournament, and he won.  Congrats Poulter!!!