Sunday, March 16, 2008

Tour Outsider: Arnold Palmer Invitational Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 Vijay Singh 4.15 3 1 1 3 $301,600
2 Tiger Woods 9.20 1 1 20 34 $1,044,000
3 Luke Donald 11.45 MC MC 72 92 $0
4 Chad Campbell 27.40 21 17 10 12 $51,620
5 Scott Verplank 33.45 MC MC 86 67 $0

This week, it was an easy time to pick Singh and Woods. The results definitely showed that, as Woods won and Singh placed 3rd.

As for the 3 other players in my 5 picks, 2 of them missed the cut (Donald and Verplank). Campbell was the bright star in this group of 3 as he placed 21st.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

Tour Outsider Tour Insider Winner
Total Earnings $1,397,200 $1,397,220 DRAW
Avg Rank 36.6 38.8 TO
Made Cut 3 3 DRAW
Outcome -- -- TO

For the first time, we had a draw in the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Outsider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 8 wins to the Tour Outsider, 3 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings
Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual
1 Vijay Singh 4.15 3 1 1 3 $301,600
2 Tiger Woods 9.20 1 1 20 34 $1,044,000
3 Luke Donald 11.45 MC MC 72 92 $0
4 Stuart Appleby 14.10 MC MC 97 67 $0
5 Phil Mickelson 19.15 21 32 29 67 $51,620
6 Corey Pavin 24.30 MC MC 92 52 $0
7 Ben Crane 27.05 59 54 20 34 $12,876
8 Chad Campbell 27.40 21 17 10 12 $51,620
9 Kenny Perry 27.50 48 54 49 24 $15,099
10 Brian Gay 28.35 21 25 49 34 $51,620
11 Sean O'Hair 32.95 3 1 49 67 $301,600
12 Scott Verplank 33.45 MC MC 86 67 $0
13 Boo Weekley 33.85 21 32 38 52 $51,620
14 Rod Pampling 37.20 MC MC 118 117 $0
15 Sergio Garcia 38.25 31 25 10 34 $31,513

Posted by at 8:18 PM

2 comments:

  1. That's pretty weak to give yourself a win in the Arnold Palmer Invitational based on the ranking of player who missed the cut. I would think you should revise your tournament review to call it a draw and in the future, not count the ranking of MC players since if you miss the cut you get no money and it's all the same. Just my two cents. I like your column, though. Keep up the good work.
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  2. Good point. However, I disagree. I feel that it is important for a player to continue playing ALL 36 holes (if the cut is made after the 2nd round)...even if they are going to miss the cut. So the rank after a player has missed the cut is just as important for a player that makes the cut.

    That said, you can go through the analysis that I do on GolfInvestors (http://golfinvestors.com) and see things like the Cut Differential figures (on the Players - Profile - Results page, in Summary section towards the bottom of the page). That is very important for investors as they can see if a player gives up.

    For example, compare the results of Tiger Woods, Steward Cink, and Bubba Watson in the last 25 tournaments they have played in. Their cut differential figures are:

    Tiger Woods
    http://golfinvestors.com/players/profile.php?id=1&type=results#results_summary

    Cuts Made: 23 (100%)
    Cuts Missed: 0 (0%)
    Cut Differential: -105 (avg: -4.6)
    Cut Differential when Cut Made: -105 (avg: -4.6)
    Cut Differential when Cut Missed: N/A

    Stewart Cink
    http://golfinvestors.com/players/profile.php?id=72&type=results#results_summary

    Cuts Made: 19 (82.6%)
    Cuts Missed: 4 (17.4%)
    Cut Differential: -36 (avg: -1.6)
    Cut Differential when Cut Made: -49 (avg: -2.6)
    Cut Differential when Cut Missed: +13 (avg: +3.3)

    Bubba Watson
    http://golfinvestors.com/players/profile.php?id=1832&type=results#results_summary

    Cuts Made: 12 (52.2%)
    Cuts Missed: 10 (43.5%)
    Cut Differential: +10 (avg: +0.4)
    Cut Differential when Cut Made: -39 (avg: -3.3)
    Cut Differential when Cut Missed: +49 (avg: +4.9)

    For Tiger, you will see that he has not missed a cut in his last 25 tournaments, so the only Cut Differential figure that is important to look at here is the "Cut Differential". Here you will see he makes the cut on average by 4.6 storkes.

    Now for Cink, you will see his Cut Differential avg is -1.6 So he makes the cut on average by 1.6 strokes. However, what is interesting here is that when he misses the cut, he misses it on average by 3.3 strokes. Compare that to Watson who has a Cut Differential when Cut Misses avg of 4.9 strokes. That means when Watson misses the cut, which is 43.5% of the time, he misses it by almost 5 strokes. 5 strokes is not close to the cut line in my opinion. However, when Watson makes the cut, he makes it by 3.3 strokes on average.

    So basically what I am trying to prove (which needs more words and needs to be done not just in the comments section), is that I feel that how a player misses the cut is just as important, if not more important, than if they misses the cut all together.

    When do you see Tiger give up even if he misses the cut (which he seldom does)? When do you see Stewart Cink or Jim Furyk giving up even if they are going to miss a cut? They play all 36 holes (if the cut is after the 2nd round). However, you will see players like Bubba Watson and John Daly give up during the second round when they know they are going to miss the cut. They don't care if they miss the cut by one stroke or 10 strokes. That shows the type of attitude between the great players and the good players.

    So in the end, I think rank for ALL players, even if they miss the cut, should be included in the comparison between Shedloski and my picks. Our picks are for the entire field, not for the players that just make the cut.

    Thanks for the comments. I wish more people like yourself will start posting comments here.
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