Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Greenbrier Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is in West Virginia to play at the famed Greenbrier Resort, famous for being Sam Snead's "local" course.  The tournament is Greenbrier Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Greenbrier Classic.

# Player CLi
1 Brendon De Jonge 8.65
2 Jim Furyk 16.20
3 John Rollins 17.20
4 Marc Leishman 17.35
5 Charley Hoffman 20.65
6 Webb Simpson 22.45
7 Stuart Appleby 26.00
8 Roland Thatcher 26.30
9 Jeffrey Overton 26.60
10 John Merrick 27.35
11 Greg Owen 27.65
12 Seung-yul Noh 30.20
13 Andres Romero 30.75
14 Brian Davis 31.05
15 J.B. Holmes 31.20

De Jonge (analysis) is the only player that has a CLi figure below 10.  His CLi figure is 8.65.  The next lowest CLi figure is 16.20 (Furyk).  That would suggest two things: 1) that the CLi doesn't think there is a clear favorite (since only one player has a CLi figure below 10, and it is not much lower than 10), or 2) that De Jonge could be a clear favorite.

De Jonge has been playing well leading up to this tournament.  He was leading after 3 rounds last week at the AT&T National before faltering in the final round (77).  He finished 11th.  Two weeks ago he finished 8th in the Travelers Championship.  As for this tournament, he has finished 4th and 3rd.

Furyk (analysis) has been in the top 5 of the CLi rankings a lot the past two months.  A lot of that has to do with him playing well.  He finished 34th last week at the AT&T National, and prior to that 4th at the U.S. Open (which he was leading up to the last two holes of the tournament).  He has played this tournament once (in 2010) and finished 9th.

Rollins (analysis) has not played well the last 4 tournaments he has played in except in his last event.  He finished 4th in the last tournament he played in -- two week ago, the Travelers Championship. Prior to June he had a good April and May.  He missed the cut here last year, but finished 21st in 2010. He might be back on track and could finish well at Greenbrier, as I am mainly looking at his 4th place finish in his last event. 

I am skipping over Leishman (analysis) and Hoffman (analysis) to pick Simpson (analysis) and Appleby (analysis).  Leishman won two weeks ago in the Travelers Championship, and Hoffman finished 2nd that week.  The reason is because I am looking at supporting the U.S. Open championship (Simpson) and the inaugural winner in the 2010 Greenbrier Classic (Appleby).  Simpson also finished 9th in this tournament last year.

Below are my 5 picks for the Greenbrier Classic:

# Player CLi 
1 Brendon De Jonge 8.65
2 Jim Furyk 16.20
3 John Rollins 17.20
4 Webb Simpson 22.45
5 Stuart Appleby 26.00

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Tiger Woods
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Dustin Johnson
  4. Jim Furyk
  5. Steve Stricker
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Greenbrier Classic

We have 2 players in common this tournament: Simpson and Furyk

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Greenbrier Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
2 15% 15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 15% 15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

Note the change from the normal setting I use when calculating the Golf CLi for a tournament.  Since this tournament is only in it's 3rd year, I set the "number of past tournaments looking back" to 2.  Then I lowered the weight put on the "number of past tournaments looking back" from 25% to 15% for both the scoring average weight and the earnings average weight.  To make up the differences in the weights, I increased the scoring and earnings average weights for the "number of days looking back" from 5% to 15%.

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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