Thursday, July 19, 2012

True South Classic

This week the US PGA Tour is in England for the British Open, while also in Madison, Mississippi for the True South Classic.  This post is for the True South Classic (click here for the British Open post).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the True South Classic.

# Player CLi 
1  Blake Adams 8.0
2  Brendon De Jonge 8.8
3  Ken Duke 10.9
4  Billy Horschel 13.8
5  Tommy Gainey 15.8
6  Lee Janzen 19.8
7  Jerry Kelly 21.7
8  Hunter Haas 22.3
9  Joe Durant 25.8
10  David Hearn 27.9
11  Heath Slocum 28.1
12  Nathan Green 28.3
13  Bill Lunde 30.8
14  Tom Pernice Jr 31.0
15  Kevin Kisner 31.4

I am going to go with the first 4 players in the CLi rankings: Adams (analysis), De Jonge(analysis), Duke>(analysis), and Horschel(analysis).

Adams placed 9th here last year and is playing well this year.  Over the past 4 weeks, he has solid showings (25th, 17th, 48th, and 29th) and hasn't missed a cut since early May (in the Wells Fargo Championship).

As has been mentioned in my posts the last 2-3 weeks, De Jonge is playing well.  Over the past 4 weeks he has placed 19th, 52nd, 11th, and 8th.  And he hasn't missed a cut since mid-April (in the Valero Texas Open).  He has finished 13th, 3rd and 29th in the 3 instances he has played this event.

Duke plays well in this event.  He has finished 8th, 25th, 11th, and 69th in the 4 times he has played in the event.  He did miss the cut last week at the John Deere Classic.  However, in the 3 previous events before the John Deere Classic he finished 7th, 47th, and 7th.  [ BTW: He seems to like placing 7th; he has four 7th place finishes in the last 10 events. ]

Horschel placed 18th here last year, the only time he has played in the event.  In the last four events he has made the cut, with a low finish of 24th in the Travelers Championship in mid/late-June.

For my last pick, I am going to skip over Gainey (analysis) and Janzen (analysis) and pick my former Florida neighbor, Kelly (analysis).  Kelly placed 11th here in 2010, the last time he played in the event.  In the past three events, he has placed 36th, 12th, and 37th.  In two of those events (the Greenbrier Classic and the Travelers Championship), he started off with a strong first round.  So he is starting well.  Maybe he will finish well this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the True South Classic:

# Player CLi 
1  Blake Adams 8.0
2  Brendon De Jonge 8.8
3  Ken Duke 10.9
4  Billy Horschel 13.8
5  Jerry Kelly 21.7

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Ken Duke
  2. Brendon De Jonge
  3. Dicky Pride
  4. Blake Adams
  5. Chris Kirk
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: True South Classic

We have 3 player in common this tournament: Duke, De Jonge, and Adams

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the True South Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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