Tuesday, July 10, 2012

John Deere Classic

This week the US PGA Tour goes to the mid-west to play the John Deere Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the John Deere Classic.

# Player CLi 
1 Tim Clark 7.35
2 Charley Hoffman 11.45
3 Brendon De Jonge 14.50
4 Zach Johnson 14.50
5 Jonathan Byrd 17.20
6 Ken Duke 22.10
7 Jeffrey Overton 29.10
8 Jerry Kelly 29.75
9 Steve Stricker 29.80
10 Jeff Maggert 30.20
11 Chez Reavie 32.75
12 Heath Slocum 33.60
13 Chad Campbell 38.70
14 Daniel Summerhays 38.75
15 Kyle Stanley 39.55

As with last week, only one player has a CLi figure less than 10. That is Clark (analysis) with a CLi figure of 7.35.  He earns this low CLi figure by finishing 7th, 18th, and 2nd the three times he has played this event.  He finished 4th in his last outing, which was the Travelers Championship.  His only hiccup the past two months was a missed cut at the U.S. Open.  Other than the U.S. Open, he has had solid finishes.

Hoffman (analysis) has been playing solid golf the past three weeks, starting with his 2nd place finish 3 weeks ago in the Travelers Championship.  He followed up his strong finish in the Travelers Championship with a 22nd place finish at the AT&T National.  He started off well last week in the Greenbrier Classic with a 66 in the first round.  However, he faded to a 67th finish over the weekend.  He finished 7th in 2010 in this event (the last time he played this event), and 15th the year before.

De Jonge (analysis) was a favorite to play well last week in the Greenbrier Classic, but only could mustard a 52nd finish.  He did throw in a 64 in the second round to show that he is still hitting the ball well.  So along with his recent 11th place finish in the AT&T National and 8th place in the Travelers Championship, his game is probably still going strong. With two 7th place finishes in this event the past two years, he looks like a good pick to me.

Johnson (analysis) loves this tournament.  Being from the mid-west (Iowa), this tournament is close to home for him.  In the past 3 years, he has two top-3 finishes: 3rd in 2011 and 2nd in 2009.  He is now looking for a "W" in this event.  As for his current play, it is lacking, with a 64th finish in the Travelers Championship 3 weeks ago, a 41st in the U.S. Open, and a missed cut in the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  But he does have a win in late May at the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial.

Byrd (analysis) is a hard player to skip over, but I am going to pick Stricker (analysis) as my fifth pick.  Byrd has won this tournament in 2007, finished 2nd in 2003, and has an average ranking of 37.4 in the 8 times he has played the event (and an even lower ranking of 24.0 if you don't include last year's missed cut).  He is playing well coming into the tournament with several top 10 finishes in the past several months.

However, with Stricker (a fellow Illini alumni) having won this tournament the previous three years, it would be foolish not to pick him.  In his limited play (due to his neck issues), he has played well in the past two tournaments he has played in, finishing 22nd last week in the Greenbrier Classic and 15th in the U.S. Open.

Below are my 5 picks for the John Deere Classic:

# Player CLi 
1 Tim Clark 7.35
2 Charley Hoffman 11.45
3 Brendon De Jonge 14.50
4 Zach Johnson 14.50
5 Steve Stricker 29.80

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Steve Stricker
  2. Zach Johnson
  3. Charley Hoffman
  4. Jonathan Byrd
  5. Scott Piercy
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: John Deere Classic

We have 3 players in common this tournament: Stricker, Johnson, and Hoffman

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the John Deere Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5 25% 25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30 5% 5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4 20% 20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

2 comments:

  1. Should I go with t. clark over zach and overton?? Any inside info on how clark is feeling, etc.

    I will go with clark-z. johnson-overton-duke-reavie.

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  2. If you have to pick one player, and there is a doubt about how Clark is feeling, I would go with Johnson (Zach) or Overton. No one wants to get burned by a WD or a physical aliment. However, I am not aware of how Clark is feeling, so I am going to stick with him.

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