Tuesday, June 25, 2013

AT&T National

This week the US PGA Tour is in D.C. to play Tiger's tournament, the AT&T National...without Tiger being present (he is out nursing an injury).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T National.

# Player CLi 
1  Hunter Mahan 7.60
2  Bo Van Pelt 17.55
3  Chris Stroud 17.70
4  Adam Scott 18.05
5  Stuart Appleby 18.30
6  Jason Day 20.05
7  Ryan Palmer 20.35
8  Rickie Fowler 22.10
9  Charles Howell III 29.30
10  John Rollins 30.05
11  Fredrik Jacobson 30.15
12  Graham Delaet 31.60
13  Robert Allenby 32.50
14  John Huh 33.00
15  J.J. Henry 34.30

The only player with a CLi figure below 10 is Mahan (analysis), with a CLi figure of 7.60.  Thus, I am going to pick him first.  Since 2006, he has finished no worse than 30th (not including the WD before the start of the tournament in 2010).  His lowest finish is 2nd (in 2009) and he finished 8th last year.  His average rank in the tournament since 2006 is in the tournament is 14.3.  He placed 24th last week at the Travelers Championship and 4th two weeks ago at the U.S. Open.  After missing 4 consecutive cuts in March, April, and May, he has placed no worse than 26th in the 5 tournaments he has played since the middle of May.

My second pick is Van Pelt (analysis).  He finished 2nd in the tournament last year, and 11th the previous two years.  He has played some sold golf the last month, having no great finishes, but also no poor finishes (hasn't missed a cut the past 7 tournaments).

For the next three players, I am going to skip over Stroud (analysis), and then pick Scott (analysis).  Then I am going to skip over Appleby (analysis), and the pick Day (analysis).  For my final pick, I am going to skip over Palmer (analysis) to pick Fowler (analysis).

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T National:

# Player CLi 
1  Hunter Mahan 7.60
2  Bo Van Pelt 17.55
3  Adam Scott 18.05
4  Jason Day 20.05
5  Rickie Fowler 22.10

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Jason Day
  2. Brandt Snedeker
  3. Hunter Mahan
  4. Adam Scott
  5. Billy Horschel
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T National

We have 3 players in common this week: Day, Mahan, and Scott.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T National:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Travelers Championship

It is now the week after the U.S. Open and we are at the Travelers Championship in Connecticut.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Travelers Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  John Rollins 7.45
2  Hunter Mahan 11.70
3  Brian Davis 16.35
4  Brendon De Jonge 20.15
5  Charley Hoffman 21.30
6  Fredrik Jacobson 23.05
7  Rory Sabbatini 24.75
8  Justin Rose 27.65
9  Tim Clark 27.80
10  Padraig Harrington 28.15
11  James Driscoll 29.25
12  Bo Van Pelt 29.35
13  Camilo Villegas 32.55
14  John Merrick 33.75
15  Chez Reavie 35.30

Here are the 5 players I am picking...with explanation provided later.

Below are my 5 picks for the Travelers Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  John Rollins 7.45
2  Hunter Mahan 11.70
3  Brian Davis 16.35
4  Brendon De Jonge 20.15
5  Charley Hoffman 21.30

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Hunter Mahan
  2. Bubba Watson
  3. Rickie Fowler
  4. Justin Rose
  5. Jason Dufner
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Travelers Championship

We have 1 player in common this week: Mahan.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Travelers Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

U.S. Open

Ok, here we go.  The second major of the year is upon us.  The U.S. Open will take place this week at Merion Golf Club in Ardmore, Pennsylvania.

Rain is currently causing havoc on the course early in the week, so it will be interesting to see how the short course will play.  The rough will definitely be something to reckon with, as is the case with most U.S. Open venues.  The USGA loves making errant drivers pay a penalty.  Enjoy the week of competition!!!

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the U.S. Open.

# Player CLi 
1  Tiger Woods 6.35
2  Lee Westwood 14.85
3  Matt Kuchar 15.60
4  Steve Stricker 18.95
5  Jason Day 22.10
6  Phil Mickelson 22.20
7  Sergio Garcia 25.80
8  John Peterson 27.60
9  Rory McIlroy 28.20
10  Jim Furyk 29.05
11  Angel Cabrera 29.40
12  Charl Schwartzel 29.70
13  Kevin Chappell 29.75
14  Adam Scott 31.25
15  Dustin Johnson 32.45

Here are the 5 players I am picking...with explanation provided later.

Below are my 5 picks for the U.S. Open:

# Player CLi 
1  Tiger Woods 6.35
2  Lee Westwood 14.85
3  Matt Kuchar 15.60
4  Steve Stricker 18.95
5  Phil Mickelson 22.20

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Graeme McDowell
  2. Matt Kuchar
  3. Tiger Woods
  4. Charl Schwartzel
  5. Adam Scott
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: U.S. Open

We have 2 players in common this week: Kuchar and Woods.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the U.S. Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
725%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
455%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
620%20%

I made some changes from my regular confirmation.  I left the weights the same, but increased the number of past tournaments looking back from 5 to 7, increased the number of days looking back from 30 to 45, and increased the number of tournaments looking back from 4 to 6.

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

FedEx St Jude Classic

This week is the last tournament for players to prepare for next week's U.S. Open.  This week it is the FedEx St Jude Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the FedEx St. Jude Classic.

# Player CLi 
1  Ben Crane 16.60
2  Brendon Todd 20.80
3  Robert Karlsson 21.35
4  Tim Clark 24.95
5  Ryan Palmer 26.45
6  Boo Weekley 29.75
7  John Rollins 30.05
8  Fredrik Jacobson 30.75
9  Bob Estes 31.45
10  Jeffrey Overton 32.55
11  John Merrick 32.75
12  Camilo Villegas 33.05
13  Ken Duke 34.05
14  Scott Stallings 35.45
15  Charles Howell III 36.20

Here are the 5 players I am picking...with explanation provided later.

Below are my 5 picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic:

# Player CLi 
1  Ben Crane 16.60
2  Tim Clark 24.95
3  Ryan Palmer 26.45
4  Boo Weekley 29.75
5  Fredrik Jacobson 30.75

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Brandt Snedeker
  2. Charles Howell III
  3. Boo Weekley
  4. Ryan Palmer
  5. Scott Stallings
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: FedEx St. Jude Classic

We have 2 players in common this week: Palmer and Weekley.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the FedEx St. Jude Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Memorial Tournament

I am back in the country, and have reliable Internet connection.  Thus, I will post a full posting for this week's tournament.  This week the US PGA Tour is in Ohio to play Jack's tournament, the Memorial Tournament.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Memorial Tournament.

# Player CLi 
1  Tiger Woods 1.20
2  Matt Kuchar 4.70
3  Matthew Every 9.25
4  Kenny Perry 11.15
5  Kevin Streelman 16.65
6  Charl Schwartzel 19.40
7  Bo Van Pelt 21.05
8  John Huh 22.05
9  Ryo Ishikawa 26.75
10  Dustin Johnson 27.50
11  Brendon De Jonge 27.55
12  Rory McIlroy 29.35
13  Kyle Stanley 29.55
14  Luke Donald 29.80
15  Scott Stallings 31.30

Woods (analysis) is the clear favorite this week.  He has played well in this event in the past and is playing well leading up to this week.  Since 2000, he has played in the tournament 10 times and has won the tournament 4 times, including last year.  His average rank in the tournament since 2000 is 7, with his worst finish being 22nd (in 2002).

Kuchar (analysis) played well last week at the Colonial Invitational, finishing 2nd behind Weekley.  He hasn't missed the cut in the 12 events he has played in this season, with his worst finish being 48th (PLAYERS Championship) and his best finish a win (at the Accenture World Match Play).  He has tended to play well in this event as well. He missed the cut the first time he played the event in 2003.  However, since then he has finished no worse than 13th in the 5 times he has played the event.  His best finish in the event is 2nd (in 2011).

Every (analysis) finished 4th last week at the Colonial Invitational and finished 6th in this event last year (the only time he has played in this event).  Hopefully those two data points will align this week to result in a solid finish by Every.

I am going to skip over Perry (analysis), Streelman (analysis), and Schwartzel (analysis).  Perry has played well in this tournament in the past.  However, the reason why he is high up in the CLi ranking is because of his solid finishes on the Champions Tour.  He missed the cut last year.  Streelman and Schwartzel have been playing well this year, but they missed the cut in their previous tournament leading up to this event.  Thus, I am going to skip over them and pick Van Pelt (analysis) and Huh (analysis) for my final two picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the Memorial Tournament:

# Player CLi 
1  Tiger Woods 1.20
2  Matt Kuchar 4.70
3  Matthew Every 9.25
4  Bo Van Pelt 21.05
5  John Huh 22.05

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Tiger Woods
  2. Matt Kuchar
  3. Adam Scott
  4. Justin Rose
  5. Keegan Bradley
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Memorial Tournament

We have 2 players in common this week: Woods and Kuchar.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Memorial Tournament:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

My last quick post in this stint...as I am on my last week of traveling abroad with limited internet access.  This post is for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial:

My picks are:

# Player CLi 
1  Harris English 10.00
2  Martin Laird 10.05
3  Jeffrey Overton 15.20
4  Ryan Palmer 16.55
5  Ben Crane 20.95

[ Note: I didn't pass over any of the top 5 in the CLi rankings, thus, I am trusting the CLi ranking fully for this tournament. ]

The top 5 for Bolton's picks for the Crowne Plaza Invitational:
  1. Henrik Stenson
  2. Kevin Streelman
  3. Chris Kirk
  4. Matt Kuchar
  5. Zach Johnson

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

HP Byron Nelson Championship

Another quick post...still traveling with limited internet access.  This post is for the HP Byron Nelson Championship:

My picks are:

# Player CLi 
1 D.A. Points 8.70
2 Marc Leishman 12.50
3 Jason Day 12.90
4 Charley Hoffman 19.70
5 Ryan Palmer 21.55

[ Note: I am passing over Jeffrey Overton and Dustin Johnson, who are in the top 5 of the CLi rankings, to pick Charley Hoffman and Ryan Palmer. ]

The top 5 for Bolton's picks for the HP Byron Nelson Championship:
  1. Jason Day
  2. Marc Leishman
  3. Jimmy Walker
  4. Louis Oosthuizen
  5. Matt Kuchar