Northern Trust Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Northern Trust Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Phil Mickelson | 21 | $66,000
2. Jimmy Walker | 16 | $99,000
3. Kevin Stadler | 42 | $23,760
4. Sergio Garcia | 13 | $127,600
5. Aaron Baddeley | 114 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Ryan Moore | 27 | $45,870
2. Jimmy Walker | 16 | $99,000
3. Charl Schwartzel | 3 | $343,200
4. Bill Haas | 3 | $343,200
5. Phil Mickelson | 21 | $66,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$316,360	$897,270	TI
Avg Rank	41.2	14.0	TI
Made Cut	4	5	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 6 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Bolton had a wonderful tournament...the only thing he missed out on was a win by one of his picks.  He was close with Schwartzel and Haas.  They both finished 3rd.  Haas faltered a little down the stretch in the final round after leading going into the final round.

The Masters CLi Prediction as of 2013-02-13

This is a continuation of the weekly posts I started several weeks ago in which I post the current Golf CLi calculations for the 2013 Masters.  As mentioned before, the post was spurred by Alex Miceli's article regarding the current odds for the tournament.

I didn't see Alex post an updated version of the Vegas odds, so I grabbed them from another web site this week.

Here are the odds for the top 15 players for the 2013 Masters as of 2013-02-12.

#	Player	Odds
1	Tiger Woods	4/1
2	Rory McIlroy	13/2
3	Phil Mickelson	12/1
4	Luke Donald	25/1
5	Bubba Watson	25/1
6	Justin Rose	25/1
7	Lee Westwood	25/1
8	Adam Scott	25/1
9	Jason Dufner	30/1
10	Rickie Fowler	30/1
11	Dustin Johnson	30/1
12	Louis Oosthuizen	40/1
13	Nick Watney	40/1
14	Hunter Mahan	40/1
15	Matt Kuchar	40/1

Source: Vegas Insider

Here are the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the 2013 Masters as of 2013-02-13.

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	2.50
2	Charl Schwartzel	6.75
3	Jason Day	9.25
4	Brandt Snedeker	9.25
5	Bubba Watson	10.00
6	Matt Kuchar	11.00
7	Tiger Woods	11.50
8	Adam Scott	13.25
9	Fred Couples	14.25
10	Luke Donald	15.75
11	Ian Poulter	18.00
12	Lee Westwood	18.00
13	Hunter Mahan	18.75
14	Jim Furyk	19.50
15	Ryan Moore	20.25

Compared to last week, Mickelson has stayed on top, but his CLi figure has increased from 1.50 to 2.50.  And actually, all of the CLi figures has increased slightly compared to last week.  This indicates that the CLi predication is slightly weaker as compared to last week.

Here is the Golf CLi calculation configuration for these results:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	0%	0%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	25%	25%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Northern Trust Open

The US PGA Tour is at the famed Riviera Country Club this week to play the Northern Trust Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Northern Trust Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	3.10
2	Fred Couples	8.05
3	Jimmy Walker	9.40
4	Kevin Stadler	10.55
5	Sergio Garcia	13.60
6	Aaron Baddeley	13.70
7	K.J. Choi	14.35
8	Luke Donald	15.90
9	Bill Haas	16.60
10	Matt Kuchar	16.60
11	Bubba Watson	17.95
12	Ryan Moore	18.75
13	Brendon De Jonge	19.20
14	Keegan Bradley	19.75
15	Webb Simpson	21.30

Mickelson (analysis) is showing to be a clear favorite this week, with a CLi figure of 3.10 (which is low) and his nearest competitor being close to 5 points higher (Couples, 8.05).  Thus, my first pick this week is Mickelson.

I am going to skip over Couples (analysis).  He has played well in the past at Riviera.  However, he is getting older and the main reason why he has a low CLi figure this week is because of his solid results on the Champions Tour.  One of the weaknesses of the CLi is that it doesn't let you selet which tours to use for results [ note to self: add that option in the configuration :-) ]

I am then going to select the next four players to round out my five picks for this week.

Walker (analysis) has placed 4th in this event the past two year and placed 3rd last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship.  He also placed 4th three weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open.  So he he has played well in this event and is playing well leading up to this even this week.

Similarly, Stadler (analysis) has played solidly in this event and is playing well leading up to this event, albeit not as strong of results as Walker.  Stadler has finished in the top 30 in this event the past 4 years, with his best finish being 10th in 2010.  He also place 3rd last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship.  And prior to the AT&T event, he finished 11th (Waste Management Phoenix Open) and 27th (Humana Challenge).

Garcia (analysis) has finished in the top 6 in two out of the last three years in this tournament.  Leading up to this tournament he has a 17th place finish in the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and a 2nd place finish in the Commercialbank Qatar Masters.

Baddeley (analysis) has shown some consistent play recently, finishing 12th last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship and 6th at the Farmers Insurance Open.  He won this event in 2011 and finished 11th last year.

Below are my 5 picks for the Northern Trust Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	3.10
2	Jimmy Walker	9.40
3	Kevin Stadler	10.55
4	Sergio Garcia	13.60
5	Aaron Baddeley	13.70

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Ryan Moore
2. Jimmy Walker
3. Charl Schwartzel
4. Bill Haas
5. Phil Mickelson

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Northern Trust Open

We have 2 players in common this week: Walker and Mickelson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Northern Trust Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

AT&T Pebble Beach Review

It is now time to review the picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Phil Mickelson | 60 | $14,235
2. Bob Estes | 30 | $36,205
3. Steve Marino | 149 (MC) | $0
4. Aaron Baddeley | 12 | $131,625
5. Dustin Johnson | 90 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Phil Mickelson | 60 | $14,235
2. Brandt Snedeker | 1 | $1,170,000
3. Dustin Johnson | 90 (MC) | $0
4. Hunter Mahan | 16 | $94,250
5. Padraig Harrington | 84 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$182,605	$1,728,485	TI
Avg Rank	68.2	50.2	TI
Made Cut	3	3	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 5 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

The Masters CLi Prediction as of 2013-02-06

Last week I posted the Golf CLi calculation results for the 2013 Masters.  The post was spurred by Alex Miceli's article regarding the current odds for the tournament.  So to continue with that I have rerun the Golf CLi calculation for the 2013 Masters.  The updated odds from Vegas (via Miceli's updated article) and the updated results from the Golf CLi are posted below.

Here are the odds for the top 15 players for the 2013 Masters as of 2013-02-06.

#	Player	Odds
1	TIGER WOODS	5-1
2	RORY McILROY	13-2
3	PHIL MICKELSON	12-1
4	LUKE DONALD	25-1
5	LEE WESTWOOD	25-1
6	ADAM SCOTT	25-1
7	JUSTIN ROSE	25-1
8	BUBBA WATSON	25-1
9	DUSTIN JOHNSON	25-1
10	LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN	25-1
11	BRANDT SNEDEKER	25-1
12	JASON DUFNER	30-1
13	RICKIE FOWLER	30-1
14	CHARL SCHWARTZEL	30-1
15	NICK WATNEY	30-1

Source: Miceli's article, slightly re-sorted to put the players in the proper order

Here are the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the 2013 Masters as of 2013-02-06.

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	1.50
2	Charl Schwartzel	5.00
3	Brandt Snedeker	9.50
4	Bubba Watson	10.25
5	Matt Kuchar	11.00
6	Adam Scott	12.25
7	Ryan Moore	12.50
8	Tiger Woods	12.50
9	Fred Couples	14.75
10	Jason Day	15.50
11	Jim Furyk	15.50
12	Luke Donald	15.75
13	Louis Oosthuizen	17.00
14	Lee Westwood	17.50
15	Ian Poulter	19.00

Mickelson won the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week, which has changes the results in the odds and the CLi rankings from last week.  In the odds from Vegas, Mickelson is still third behind McIlroy and Woods, but his odds improved from 15-1 to 12-1.  Whereas, in the CLi rankings, Mickelson jumped from 14th (and a CLi of 21.00) to 1st (and a CLi of 1.50).  [ Note: this large jump makes me wonder how affective the CLi is at predicting which player will play well this far in advance of the tournament being played.  Maybe the CLi configuration settings need to be modified -- I am learning. :-) ]

Here is the Golf CLi calculation configuration for these results:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	0%	0%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	25%	25%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

AT&T Pebble Beach Championship

The US PGA Tour is in northern California this week to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	6.30
2	Bob Estes	8.60
3	Steve Marino	10.55
4	Aaron Baddeley	11.45
5	Jason Kokrak	12.05
6	Dustin Johnson	13.25
7	Josh Teater	16.05
8	Ricky Barnes	16.80
9	Tom Gillis	17.45
10	Charlie Wi	17.70
11	Richard Lee	18.40
12	Jason Day	19.30
13	Vijay Singh	20.20
14	Bryce Molder	21.45
15	Steven Bowditch	22.05

This week I have changed up the Golf CLi calculation a little.  I have put a larger weight on the past results of this tournament as opposed to how the player is playing leading up to the tournament this week.  80% of the calculation is based upon how well players have played in this tournament in the past five years, as opposed to the 50% that I normally put on the past instances of the tournament.

I am putting more weight on the past instances of the tournament after examining the results of the CLi for the 2012 and 2011 AT&T Pebble Beach Championships.  The players that played well in the tournament in the past have tended to play well in the current instance of the tournament.

[ see the end of this post for the details of the CLi configuration ]

From these results of the CLi caclulcation, I am going to go with the top 4 players: Mickelson (analysis), Estes (analysis), Marino (analysis), and Baddeley (analysis).

Mickelson won last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and won this tournament last year.  He also won the tournament in 2007 and 2005.  In 2011 and 2010, he finished 9th and 8th respectively.  So he tends to play well in this tournament AND he is playing well coming into this tournament this week.

Estes has played this event 3 times since 2000 and has placed 4th (2009), 16th (2010), and 15th (2012).  He has played one tournament this season, and finished 16th (Humana Challenge).

Marino skipped out on this tournament last year due to an injury.  However, before his injury, he finished 4th in 2011 and 2010 in this event.  He has played in three tournaments this season so far and has had mixed results -- 15th (Farmers Insurance Open), 82nd (Humana Challenge), and 59th (Sony Open).  Baddeley has finished 4th and 6th in this event the past two years.  Along with Marino, he has played in 3 tournament this season and has also had mixed results -- 65th (Waste Management Phoenix Open), 6th (Farmers Insurance Open), and 27th (Humana Challenge).  So for both of these players, I am looking to see their past results in this event be more of a factor than their current play.

For my final pick, I am skipping over Kokrak (analysis) and going to pick Johnson (analysis).  Johnson has won this event twice (2009 and 2010).  He placed 5th last year and he has already won a tournament this year (Hyundai Tournament of Champions).

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Phil Mickelson	6.30
2	Bob Estes	8.60
3	Steve Marino	10.55
4	Aaron Baddeley	11.45
5	Dustin Johnson	13.25

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

1. Phil Mickelson
2. Brandt Snedeker
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Hunter Mahan
5. Padraig Harrington

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Championship

We have 2 players in common this week: Mickelson and Johnson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	40%	40%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	5%	5%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1. Brandt Snedeker | 2 | $669,600
2. Nick Watney | 43 | $19,881
3. Bubba Watson | 15 | $111,600
4. Phil Mickelson | 1 | $1,116,000
5. Charles Howell III | 38 | $27,944

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

1. Jason Dufner | 75 (MC) | $0
2. Brandt Snedeker | 2 | $669,600
3. Nick Watney | 43 | $19,881
4. Rickie Fowler | 75 (MC) | $0
5. Charles Howell III | 38 | $27,944

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,945,025	$717,425	TO
Avg Rank	19.8	46.6	TO
Made Cut	5	3	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 4 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Ok, I finally got on the board this season....with a nice bang: picked the winner (Mickelson) and the 2nd place finisher (Snedeker).  It was a nice tournament by both Mickelson and Snedeker.  In addition, I had all five players make the cut, with the players have an average rank below 20.  I will take this type of finish each week. :-)