Tuesday, February 5, 2013

AT&T Pebble Beach Championship

The US PGA Tour is in northern California this week to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  Phil Mickelson 6.30
2  Bob Estes 8.60
3  Steve Marino 10.55
4  Aaron Baddeley 11.45
5  Jason Kokrak 12.05
6  Dustin Johnson 13.25
7  Josh Teater 16.05
8  Ricky Barnes 16.80
9  Tom Gillis 17.45
10  Charlie Wi 17.70
11  Richard Lee 18.40
12  Jason Day 19.30
13  Vijay Singh 20.20
14  Bryce Molder 21.45
15  Steven Bowditch 22.05

This week I have changed up the Golf CLi calculation a little.  I have put a larger weight on the past results of this tournament as opposed to how the player is playing leading up to the tournament this week.  80% of the calculation is based upon how well players have played in this tournament in the past five years, as opposed to the 50% that I normally put on the past instances of the tournament.

I am putting more weight on the past instances of the tournament after examining the results of the CLi for the 2012 and 2011 AT&T Pebble Beach Championships.  The players that played well in the tournament in the past have tended to play well in the current instance of the tournament.

[ see the end of this post for the details of the CLi configuration ]

From these results of the CLi caclulcation, I am going to go with the top 4 players: Mickelson (analysis), Estes (analysis), Marino (analysis), and Baddeley (analysis).

Mickelson won last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and won this tournament last year.  He also won the tournament in 2007 and 2005.  In 2011 and 2010, he finished 9th and 8th respectively.  So he tends to play well in this tournament AND he is playing well coming into this tournament this week.

Estes has played this event 3 times since 2000 and has placed 4th (2009), 16th (2010), and 15th (2012).  He has played one tournament this season, and finished 16th (Humana Challenge).

Marino skipped out on this tournament last year due to an injury.  However, before his injury, he finished 4th in 2011 and 2010 in this event.  He has played in three tournaments this season so far and has had mixed results -- 15th (Farmers Insurance Open), 82nd (Humana Challenge), and 59th (Sony Open).  Baddeley has finished 4th and 6th in this event the past two years.  Along with Marino, he has played in 3 tournament this season and has also had mixed results -- 65th (Waste Management Phoenix Open), 6th (Farmers Insurance Open), and 27th (Humana Challenge).  So for both of these players, I am looking to see their past results in this event be more of a factor than their current play.

For my final pick, I am skipping over Kokrak (analysis) and going to pick Johnson (analysis).  Johnson has won this event twice (2009 and 2010).  He placed 5th last year and he has already won a tournament this year (Hyundai Tournament of Champions).

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  Phil Mickelson 6.30
2  Bob Estes 8.60
3  Steve Marino 10.55
4  Aaron Baddeley 11.45
5  Dustin Johnson 13.25

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Phil Mickelson
  2. Brandt Snedeker
  3. Dustin Johnson
  4. Hunter Mahan
  5. Padraig Harrington
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Championship

We have 2 players in common this week: Mickelson and Johnson

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T Pebble Beach Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
540%40%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
45%5%


If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

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